Basic Materials › Agricultural Inputs

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Overview

Market Cap: $19.58B

CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments.

Mar 19, 2026$125.56

1Y +62.3%

Rewards

★CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
★Share count has been reduced by 21% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.

Risks

⚠Trailing P/E of 14.0x is 54% above the historical average of 9.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
⚠20 insider sales totaling $69.6M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 19.0% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

CF Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →

Free Cash Flow

$1.80B

FCF Yield

9.20%

Trailing P/E

14.01

Forward P/E

16.80

ROIC

17.32%

ROE

18.71%

Gross Margin

38.45%

PEG Ratio

0.38

Debt / Equity

0.47

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

0.51

Dividend Yield

1.59%

CF Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

CF $1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →

Market Value

$-1.50

created per $1 retained

Market Cap Declined

Earning Power

$-6.57

created per $1 retained

Earning Power Declined

Σ Retained

$3.20B

Δ Market Cap

$-4.79B

Δ Earning Power

$-21.01B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 retained, how much value did management create?
Market Value = market's verdict (mood-sensitive) · Earning Power = owner earnings / discount rate (mood-independent)

CF Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →

5.0% Margin of Safety

Price is 5.0% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $125.56

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $132.20

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Parameter	Min (Bear)Value	BaseValue	Max (Bull)Value
Initial Cash Flow
Growth Rate (Yr 1-5)	%	%	%
Growth Rate (Yr 6-10)	%	%	%
Terminal Growth Rate	%	%	%
Discount Rate	%	%	%
	Bear Case $113.46 Implied EV: $19.35B	Base Case $132.20 Implied EV: $22.27B	Bull Case $146.41 Implied EV: $24.49B

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $126?

+3.4%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +0.5%

The market implies +3.4% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +0.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

CF Economic Moat Score

Learn more →

41/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

CF Forensic Accounting

Learn more →

-2.83

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

CF Management & Board

Learn more →

Mr. Christopher D. Bohn

CEO, President & Director · Age 57

$3.20M

total pay

Ms. Susan L. Menzel

Executive VP & Chief Administrative Officer · Age 60

$2.00M

total pay

Mr. Bert A. Frost

Executive Vice President & Chief Commercial Officer · Age 60

$2.21M

total pay

Ms. Darla Rivera J.D.

Director of Investor Relations

CF Ownership

Learn more →

Insiders 0.4%Institutions 106.6%

No. of Institutional Holders1,170

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

CF Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

CF Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $73.69M

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$10.33M

@ $126.56 · 2026-03-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$2.45M

@ $136.06 · 2026-03-12

FROST BERT A

Officer

$854,316

@ $136.69 · 2026-03-12

FROST BERT A

Officer

$1.83M

@ $118.01 · 2026-03-09

MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK

General Counsel

$427,089

@ $116.50 · 2026-03-06

MAYER ERIK M.

Officer

$255,749

@ $116.25 · 2026-03-06

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$6.27M

@ $109.35 · 2026-03-05

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$799,200

@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$270,729

@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05

DEMPSEY LINDA M

Officer

$213,000

@ $106.50 · 2026-03-05

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$7.01M

@ $109.06 · 2026-03-03

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$415,250

@ $106.09 · 2026-03-03

MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK

General Counsel

$291,426

@ $105.36 · 2026-03-03

WILL W ANTHONY

Former

$24.37M

@ $102.63 · 2026-03-02

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$713,232

@ $104.00 · 2026-03-02

FROST BERT A

Officer

$540,761

@ $105.99 · 2026-03-02

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$889,696

@ $103.08 · 2026-03-02

DEMPSEY LINDA M

Officer

$100,000

@ $100.00 · 2026-02-27

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$311,859

@ $97.00 · 2026-02-26

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$11.22M

@ $100.25 · 2026-02-20

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$1.00M

@ $100.23 · 2025-06-20

FROST BERT A

Officer

$2.57M

@ $98.79 · 2025-06-16

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$549,535

@ $99.95 · 2025-06-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$276,300

@ $96.95 · 2025-01-16

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$142,500

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

FROST BERT A

Officer

$285,000

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$844,457

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$325,000

@ $92.86 · 2024-12-03

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$635,487

@ $90.78 · 2024-11-21

FROST BERT A

Officer

$264,000

@ $88.00 · 2024-11-20

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$180,000

@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04

FROST BERT A

Officer

$270,000

@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$648,269

@ $90.02 · 2024-10-04

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

CF 🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →

😐Neutral(53/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

CF ⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (53)

CF Investment Checklist & Notes

Learn more →

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:30:16 AM

CF Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

CF Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $73.69M

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$10.33M

@ $126.56 · 2026-03-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$2.45M

@ $136.06 · 2026-03-12

FROST BERT A

Officer

$854,316

@ $136.69 · 2026-03-12

FROST BERT A

Officer

$1.83M

@ $118.01 · 2026-03-09

MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK

General Counsel

$427,089

@ $116.50 · 2026-03-06

MAYER ERIK M.

Officer

$255,749

@ $116.25 · 2026-03-06

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$6.27M

@ $109.35 · 2026-03-05

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$799,200

@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$270,729

@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05

DEMPSEY LINDA M

Officer

$213,000

@ $106.50 · 2026-03-05

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$7.01M

@ $109.06 · 2026-03-03

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$415,250

@ $106.09 · 2026-03-03

MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK

General Counsel

$291,426

@ $105.36 · 2026-03-03

WILL W ANTHONY

Former

$24.37M

@ $102.63 · 2026-03-02

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$713,232

@ $104.00 · 2026-03-02

FROST BERT A

Officer

$540,761

@ $105.99 · 2026-03-02

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$889,696

@ $103.08 · 2026-03-02

DEMPSEY LINDA M

Officer

$100,000

@ $100.00 · 2026-02-27

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$311,859

@ $97.00 · 2026-02-26

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$11.22M

@ $100.25 · 2026-02-20

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$1.00M

@ $100.23 · 2025-06-20

FROST BERT A

Officer

$2.57M

@ $98.79 · 2025-06-16

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$549,535

@ $99.95 · 2025-06-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$276,300

@ $96.95 · 2025-01-16

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$142,500

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

FROST BERT A

Officer

$285,000

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$844,457

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$325,000

@ $92.86 · 2024-12-03

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$635,487

@ $90.78 · 2024-11-21

FROST BERT A

Officer

$264,000

@ $88.00 · 2024-11-20

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$180,000

@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04

FROST BERT A

Officer

$270,000

@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$648,269

@ $90.02 · 2024-10-04

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

CF Investment Checklist & Notes

Learn more →

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:30:16 AM

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Overview

Rewards

Risks

CF Key Valuation Metrics

CF Historical Fundamentals

CF $1 Retained Earnings Test

CF Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

CF Economic Moat Score

CF Forensic Accounting

M-Score Trend

CF Management & Board

CF Ownership

CF Insider Buying Activity

CF Insider Selling Activity

CF 🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

CF ⚖️ Buffett Signal

Compare CF

CF Investment Checklist & Notes

CF Insider Buying Activity

CF Insider Selling Activity

CF Investment Checklist & Notes