SafetyMargin.ioSafetyMargin.io
BlogWatchlistCompare
Compare Stocks › CF vs JNJ

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) vs Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
$122.69
VS
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
$227.19

Rewards

CF
  • ★CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 21% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
JNJ
  • ★Johnson & Johnson has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Gross margin of 68.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Johnson & Johnson scores 90/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

CF
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 13.7x is 50% above the historical average of 9.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠22 insider sales totaling $70.5M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 19.0% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
JNJ
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 26.3x is 32% above the historical average of 20.0x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.95 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠7 insider sales totaling $58.4M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →
CF
JNJ
Valuation
$1.80B
Free Cash Flow
$19.31B
9.56%
FCF Yield
3.53%
13.68
Trailing P/E
26.33
13.19
Forward P/E
17.87
Quality & Moat
17.32%
ROIC
15.32%
18.71%
ROE
33.02%
38.45%
Gross Margin
68.04%
0.37
PEG Ratio
2.95
Balance Sheet Safety
0.47
Debt / Equity
0.68
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.51
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.96
1.63%
Dividend Yield
2.36%
CF: 7Ties: 1JNJ: 4
CFJNJ

Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →
CF

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

JNJ

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →
CF
$-1.50
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$3.20B
Δ Market Cap
$-4.79B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
JNJ
$0.91
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Mediocre Allocator
Σ Retained
$40.05B
Δ Market Cap
+$36.63B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →
CF
8.6% Margin of Safety
Price is 8.6% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $122.69
Fair Value: $134.23
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
JNJ
11.4% Margin of Safety
Price is 11.4% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $227.19
Fair Value: $256.33
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →
CF

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $123?

+2.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -0.0%

The market implies +2.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding -0.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

JNJ

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $227?

+8.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +13.2%

The market implies +8.8% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +13.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

Learn more →
CF
41/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
JNJ
90/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

Learn more →
CF
-2.83
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
JNJ
-2.31
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

Learn more →
CF
Insiders 0.4%Institutions 108.3%
No. of Institutional Holders1,226
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
JNJ
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 76.2%Retail & Other 23.7%
No. of Institutional Holders5,579
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →
CF
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
JNJ
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $257,688
MORIKIS JOHN G
Director
$257,688
@ $206.15 · 2025-11-26
WEINBERGER MARK A
Director
$147,220
@ $147.22 · 2024-12-12
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →
CF
22
Sells (3M)
25
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $74.63M
MAYER ERIK M.
Officer
$187,035
@ $124.69 · 2026-03-17
FROST BERT A
Officer
$756,000
@ $126.00 · 2026-03-17
WILL W ANTHONY
Director
$10.33M
@ $126.56 · 2026-03-13
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$2.45M
@ $136.06 · 2026-03-12
FROST BERT A
Officer
$854,316
@ $136.69 · 2026-03-12
FROST BERT A
Officer
$1.83M
@ $118.01 · 2026-03-09
MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK
General Counsel
$427,089
@ $116.50 · 2026-03-06
MAYER ERIK M.
Officer
$255,749
@ $116.25 · 2026-03-06
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$270,729
@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05
DEMPSEY LINDA M
Officer
$213,000
@ $106.50 · 2026-03-05
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$799,200
@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05
WILL W ANTHONY
Director
$6.27M
@ $109.35 · 2026-03-05
MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK
General Counsel
$291,426
@ $105.36 · 2026-03-03
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$415,250
@ $106.09 · 2026-03-03
WILL W ANTHONY
Director
$7.01M
@ $109.06 · 2026-03-03
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$889,696
@ $103.08 · 2026-03-02
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$713,232
@ $104.00 · 2026-03-02
WILL W ANTHONY
Former
$24.37M
@ $102.63 · 2026-03-02
FROST BERT A
Officer
$540,761
@ $105.99 · 2026-03-02
DEMPSEY LINDA M
Officer
$100,000
@ $100.00 · 2026-02-27
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$311,859
@ $97.00 · 2026-02-26
WILL W ANTHONY
Director
$11.22M
@ $100.25 · 2026-02-20
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$1.00M
@ $100.23 · 2025-06-20
FROST BERT A
Officer
$2.57M
@ $98.79 · 2025-06-16
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$549,535
@ $99.95 · 2025-06-13
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$276,300
@ $96.95 · 2025-01-16
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$844,457
@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$142,500
@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
FROST BERT A
Officer
$285,000
@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$325,000
@ $92.86 · 2024-12-03
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$635,487
@ $90.78 · 2024-11-21
FROST BERT A
Officer
$264,000
@ $88.00 · 2024-11-20
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$648,269
@ $90.02 · 2024-10-04
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$180,000
@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04
FROST BERT A
Officer
$270,000
@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
JNJ
7
Sells (3M)
12
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $101.23M
DECKER ROBERT J
Officer
$1.01M
@ $247.87 · 2026-02-27
SCHMID TIMOTHY
Officer
$324,763
@ $245.66 · 2026-02-20
SCHMID TIMOTHY
Officer
$5.53M
@ $244.33 · 2026-02-18
SWANSON JAMES D
Chief Technology Officer
$15.11M
@ $243.39 · 2026-02-17
BROADHURST VANESSA
Officer
$1.51M
@ $243.39 · 2026-02-17
REED JOHN C
Officer
$13.11M
@ $243.00 · 2026-02-17
WOLK JOSEPH J
Chief Financial Officer
$21.77M
@ $242.80 · 2026-02-17
REED JOHN C
Officer
$4.19M
@ $192.71 · 2025-10-17
TAUBERT JENNIFER L
Officer
$10.04M
@ $177.81 · 2025-09-04
DUATO JOAQUIN BOIX
Chief Executive Officer
$22.55M
@ $179.21 · 2025-08-22
WOLK JOSEPH J
Chief Financial Officer
$2.98M
@ $176.91 · 2025-08-15
REED JOHN C
Officer
$3.13M
@ $163.55 · 2025-07-17
DECKER ROBERT J
Officer
$1.16M
@ $165.88 · 2025-02-25
SCHMID TIMOTHY
Officer
$62,928
@ $156.15 · 2025-02-18
WOLK JOSEPH J
Chief Financial Officer
$2.00M
@ $153.89 · 2025-02-07
DECKER ROBERT J
Officer
$930,113
@ $165.06 · 2024-08-30
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →
CF
FearGreed
😐Neutral(52/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
JNJ
FearGreed
😐Neutral(57/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →
CF
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (52)
JNJ
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (57)
View CF Full AnalysisView JNJ Full Analysis
CF vs JNJ: Which Is the Better Buy? | SafetyMargin.io