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Adobe Inc. (ADBE) vs CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, ADBE is undervalued at $250, with a DCF intrinsic value of $554 and a margin of safety of 55%. CF is fairly valued at $125, with an intrinsic value of $147 and a margin of safety of 15%. Of the two, ADBE has the wider margin of safety.

ADBE
Adobe Inc.
$250.41
VS
CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
$125.19

Rewards

ADBE
  • ★Adobe Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 89.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Adobe Inc. scores 100/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
CF
  • ★CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 21% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.

Risks

ADBE
    CF
    • ⚠PEG ratio of 3.75 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
    • ⚠22 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
    • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 19.0% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    ADBE
    CF
    Valuation
    $9.22B
    Free Cash Flow
    $1.80B
    9.26%
    FCF Yield
    9.36%
    14.33
    Trailing P/E
    11.28
    9.11
    Forward P/E
    11.11
    Quality & Moat
    37.82%
    ROIC
    16.55%
    62.95%
    ROE
    27.30%
    89.40%
    Gross Margin
    39.13%
    0.68
    PEG Ratio
    3.75
    Balance Sheet Safety
    0.13
    Net Debt / Equity
    0.19
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    0.15
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.46
    0.00%
    Dividend Yield
    1.92%
    ADBE: 8Ties: 2CF: 2
    ADBECF

    Historical Fundamentals

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    ADBE

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    CF

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    ADBE
    $-0.60
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $18.12B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-10.93B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    CF
    $-1.50
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $3.20B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-4.79B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    ADBE
    54.8% Margin of Safety
    Price is 54.8% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $250.41
    Fair Value: $553.74
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    CF
    7.1% Margin of Safety
    Price is 7.1% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $125.19
    Fair Value: $134.72
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    ADBE

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $250?

    +1.8%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies -0.6%

    The market implies +1.8% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

    Standard FCF implies a more demanding -0.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

    CF

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $125?

    +3.1%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +0.2%

    The market implies +3.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +0.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    Economic Moat Score

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    ADBE
    100/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    CF
    41/100
    Narrow Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    ADBE
    -2.85
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    CF
    -2.83
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    ADBE
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 87.8%Retail & Other 12.0%
    No. of Institutional Holders3,051
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    CF
    Insiders 0.4%Institutions 104.8%
    No. of Institutional Holders1,333
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    ADBE
    1
    Buys (3M)
    1
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $1.95M
    RICKS DAVID A
    Director
    $1.95M
    @ $194.51 · 2026-06-25
    DURN DANIEL JAMES
    Chief Financial Officer
    $507,758
    @ $390.58 · 2025-03-20
    RICKS DAVID A
    Director
    $998,946
    @ $443.98 · 2025-01-28
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    CF
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    ADBE
    0
    Sells (3M)
    4
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $1.05M
    FORUSZ JILLIAN
    Officer
    $185,915
    @ $246.25 · 2026-04-30
    DURN DANIEL JAMES
    Chief Financial Officer
    $331,355
    @ $248.02 · 2026-04-20
    DURN DANIEL JAMES
    Chief Financial Officer
    $485,323
    @ $294.85 · 2026-01-27
    FORUSZ JILLIAN
    Officer
    $50,344
    @ $337.88 · 2025-10-31
    FORUSZ JILLIAN
    Officer
    $175,828
    @ $380.58 · 2025-05-02
    FORUSZ JILLIAN
    Officer
    $145,567
    @ $435.83 · 2025-01-28
    BELSKY SCOTT K
    Officer
    $2.05M
    @ $431.61 · 2025-01-27
    BANSE AMY L
    Director
    $333,300
    @ $550.00 · 2024-12-06
    FORUSZ JILLIAN
    Officer
    $327,987
    @ $485.19 · 2024-10-29
    BELSKY SCOTT K
    Officer
    $232,525
    @ $483.42 · 2024-10-25
    BELSKY SCOTT K
    Officer
    $1.14M
    @ $511.48 · 2024-10-16
    DURN DANIEL JAMES
    Chief Financial Officer
    $3.35M
    @ $515.44 · 2024-09-17
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    CF
    0
    Sells (3M)
    22
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $70.51M
    MAYER ERIK M.
    Officer
    $187,035
    @ $124.69 · 2026-03-17
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $756,000
    @ $126.00 · 2026-03-17
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Director
    $10.33M
    @ $126.56 · 2026-03-13
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $854,316
    @ $136.69 · 2026-03-12
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $2.45M
    @ $136.06 · 2026-03-12
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $1.83M
    @ $118.01 · 2026-03-09
    MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK
    General Counsel
    $427,089
    @ $116.50 · 2026-03-06
    MAYER ERIK M.
    Officer
    $255,749
    @ $116.25 · 2026-03-06
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $270,729
    @ $111.00 · 2026-03-05
    DEMPSEY LINDA M
    Officer
    $213,000
    @ $106.50 · 2026-03-05
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Director
    $6.27M
    @ $109.35 · 2026-03-05
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $799,200
    @ $111.00 · 2026-03-05
    MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK
    General Counsel
    $291,426
    @ $105.36 · 2026-03-03
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Director
    $7.01M
    @ $109.06 · 2026-03-03
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $415,250
    @ $106.09 · 2026-03-03
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $889,696
    @ $103.08 · 2026-03-02
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $540,761
    @ $105.99 · 2026-03-02
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Former
    $24.37M
    @ $102.63 · 2026-03-02
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $713,232
    @ $104.00 · 2026-03-02
    DEMPSEY LINDA M
    Officer
    $100,000
    @ $100.00 · 2026-02-27
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $311,859
    @ $97.00 · 2026-02-26
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Director
    $11.22M
    @ $100.25 · 2026-02-20
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $1.00M
    @ $100.23 · 2025-06-20
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $2.57M
    @ $98.79 · 2025-06-16
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $549,535
    @ $99.95 · 2025-06-13
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $276,300
    @ $96.95 · 2025-01-16
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $844,457
    @ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $285,000
    @ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $142,500
    @ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $325,000
    @ $92.86 · 2024-12-03
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $635,487
    @ $90.78 · 2024-11-21
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $264,000
    @ $88.00 · 2024-11-20
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $648,269
    @ $90.02 · 2024-10-04
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $270,000
    @ $90.00 · 2024-10-04
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $180,000
    @ $90.00 · 2024-10-04
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

    Learn more →
    ADBE
    FearGreed
    😨Fear(39/100)

    "Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    CF
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(55/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

    Learn more →
    ADBE
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (39)
    CF
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (55)
    View ADBE Full AnalysisView CF Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: ADBE vs CF

    Is Adobe Inc. or CF Industries Holdings, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, ADBE trades at a 54.8% margin of safety (intrinsic value $554 vs. price $250), compared to CF's 14.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $147 vs. $125).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, Adobe Inc. or CF Industries Holdings, Inc.?▼

    ADBE scores 100/100 (Wide moat), while CF scores 41/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. in financial distress?▼

    CF's Altman Z-Score of 2.8 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. ADBE scores 8.8 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which company has better free cash flow, Adobe Inc. or CF Industries Holdings, Inc.?▼

    CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) generates a 9.4% free cash flow yield, compared to Adobe Inc.'s 9.3%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Adobe Inc. or CF Industries Holdings, Inc.?▼

    ADBE earns 37.8% ROIC versus CF's 16.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    ADBE vs CF: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io