Compare Stocks › CF vs MA
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) vs Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
$125.56
VS
MA
Mastercard Incorporated
$491.14
Rewards
CF
- ★CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Share count has been reduced by 21% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
MA
- ★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
CF
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 14.0x is 54% above the historical average of 9.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠20 insider sales totaling $69.6M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 19.0% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
MA
- ⚠High leverage (2.56x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $4.5M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →CF
MA
Valuation
$1.80B
Free Cash Flow
$16.27B
9.20%
FCF Yield
3.71%
14.01
Trailing P/E
29.77
16.80
Forward P/E
21.70
Quality & Moat
17.32%
ROIC
54.23%
18.71%
ROE
193.24%
38.45%
Gross Margin
100.00%
0.38
PEG Ratio
1.23
Balance Sheet Safety
0.47
Debt / Equity
2.56
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.51
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.43
1.59%
Dividend Yield
0.71%
CF: 6Ties: 1MA: 5
CFMA
Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →CF
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
MA
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →CF
$-1.50
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$3.20B
Δ Market Cap
$-4.79B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
MA
$5.62
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$31.68B
Δ Market Cap
+$177.96B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →CF
5.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 5.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $125.56
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $132.20
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
MA
12.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 12.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $491.14
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $558.06
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →CF
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $126?
+3.4%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +0.5%
The market implies +3.4% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +0.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
MA
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $491?
+13.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +12.0%
The market implies +13.2% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.
Standard FCF implies +12.0%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →CF
41/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
MA
99/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →CF
-2.83
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
MA
-2.53
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →CF
Insiders 0.4%Institutions 106.6%
No. of Institutional Holders1,170
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
MA
Insiders 0.5%Institutions 91.1%Retail & Other 8.3%
No. of Institutional Holders4,864
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →CF
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
MA
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →CF
20
Sells (3M)
23
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $73.69M
WILL W ANTHONY
Director
$10.33M
@ $126.56 · 2026-03-13
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$2.45M
@ $136.06 · 2026-03-12
FROST BERT A
Officer
$854,316
@ $136.69 · 2026-03-12
FROST BERT A
Officer
$1.83M
@ $118.01 · 2026-03-09
MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK
General Counsel
$427,089
@ $116.50 · 2026-03-06
MAYER ERIK M.
Officer
$255,749
@ $116.25 · 2026-03-06
WILL W ANTHONY
Director
$6.27M
@ $109.35 · 2026-03-05
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$799,200
@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$270,729
@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05
DEMPSEY LINDA M
Officer
$213,000
@ $106.50 · 2026-03-05
WILL W ANTHONY
Director
$7.01M
@ $109.06 · 2026-03-03
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$415,250
@ $106.09 · 2026-03-03
MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK
General Counsel
$291,426
@ $105.36 · 2026-03-03
WILL W ANTHONY
Former
$24.37M
@ $102.63 · 2026-03-02
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$713,232
@ $104.00 · 2026-03-02
FROST BERT A
Officer
$540,761
@ $105.99 · 2026-03-02
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$889,696
@ $103.08 · 2026-03-02
DEMPSEY LINDA M
Officer
$100,000
@ $100.00 · 2026-02-27
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$311,859
@ $97.00 · 2026-02-26
WILL W ANTHONY
Director
$11.22M
@ $100.25 · 2026-02-20
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$1.00M
@ $100.23 · 2025-06-20
FROST BERT A
Officer
$2.57M
@ $98.79 · 2025-06-16
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$549,535
@ $99.95 · 2025-06-13
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$276,300
@ $96.95 · 2025-01-16
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$142,500
@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
FROST BERT A
Officer
$285,000
@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$844,457
@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$325,000
@ $92.86 · 2024-12-03
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$635,487
@ $90.78 · 2024-11-21
FROST BERT A
Officer
$264,000
@ $88.00 · 2024-11-20
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$180,000
@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04
FROST BERT A
Officer
$270,000
@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$648,269
@ $90.02 · 2024-10-04
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
MA
1
Sells (3M)
19
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $64.44M
LING HAI
Officer
$4.48M
@ $499.20 · 2026-02-24
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$10.20M
@ $591.00 · 2025-09-02
LING HAI
Officer
$2.69M
@ $600.00 · 2025-08-22
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$10.46M
@ $586.89 · 2025-08-19
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$3.83M
@ $566.46 · 2025-08-05
GENACHOWSKI JULIUS
Director
$178,049
@ $570.67 · 2025-07-07
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$536,480
@ $560.00 · 2025-06-30
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$601,447
@ $546.77 · 2025-06-27
GENACHOWSKI JULIUS
Director
$173,910
@ $561.00 · 2025-06-24
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$536,480
@ $560.00 · 2025-06-24
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$508,474
@ $535.80 · 2025-06-20
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$5.02M
@ $532.97 · 2025-06-20
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$1.76M
@ $561.78 · 2025-06-16
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$549,373
@ $572.86 · 2025-06-13
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$5.55M
@ $588.18 · 2025-06-12
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$8.22M
@ $585.05 · 2025-06-05
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$218,223
@ $577.31 · 2025-05-15
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$257,535
@ $572.30 · 2025-05-12
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$8.68M
@ $550.16 · 2025-03-26
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$3.81M
@ $534.68 · 2025-03-19
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$6.12M
@ $556.14 · 2025-03-05
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$9.78M
@ $553.76 · 2025-03-05
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$6.19M
@ $562.72 · 2025-02-26
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$6.18M
@ $564.99 · 2025-02-18
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$7.97M
@ $565.00 · 2025-02-18
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$10.17M
@ $564.95 · 2025-02-18
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$2.36M
@ $500.44 · 2024-11-01
MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
Officer
$2.30M
@ $491.03 · 2024-09-27
MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
Officer
$2.29M
@ $489.86 · 2024-09-20
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$550,000
@ $500.00 · 2024-09-17
MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
Officer
$2.31M
@ $493.10 · 2024-09-13
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$528,000
@ $480.00 · 2024-08-29
MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$42.19M
@ $468.80 · 2024-08-22
MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$42.03M
@ $467.02 · 2024-08-21
LING HAI
Officer
$1.36M
@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$3.16M
@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$6.11M
@ $455.00 · 2024-08-05
LING HAI
Officer
$1.35M
@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$512,006
@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$4.07M
@ $451.06 · 2024-06-20
MURPHY TIMOTHY H
Officer
$2.34M
@ $446.24 · 2024-06-17
MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$47.72M
@ $445.98 · 2024-06-17
MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$49.51M
@ $442.03 · 2024-06-13
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$3.11M
@ $449.66 · 2024-06-12
MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$50.61M
@ $447.85 · 2024-06-10
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$3.71M
@ $443.93 · 2024-06-05
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$4.04M
@ $447.28 · 2024-06-05
MURPHY TIMOTHY H
Officer
$2.31M
@ $441.57 · 2024-06-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →CF
😐Neutral(53/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
MA
😐Neutral(42/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →CF
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (53)
MA
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (42)