Compare Stocks › CF vs GOOGL

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) vs Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, CF is undervalued at $103, with a DCF intrinsic value of $147 and a margin of safety of 30%. GOOGL is overvalued at $368, with an intrinsic value of $94 and a margin of safety of -290%. Of the two, CF has the wider margin of safety.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

$102.93

GOOGL

Alphabet Inc.

$368.03

Rewards

★CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
★Share count has been reduced by 21% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.

GOOGL

★Alphabet Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 60.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Alphabet Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

⚠PEG ratio of 3.14 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
⚠23 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 19.0% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

GOOGL

⚠FCF yield of 1.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.

Key Valuation Metrics

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GOOGL

Valuation

$1.80B

Free Cash Flow

$73.27B

11.39%

FCF Yield

1.63%

9.27

Trailing P/E

28.09

8.97

Forward P/E

25.39

Quality & Moat

16.55%

ROIC

20.98%

27.30%

ROE

38.88%

39.13%

Gross Margin

60.37%

3.14

PEG Ratio

1.47

Balance Sheet Safety

0.19

Net Debt / Equity

Net cash

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

0.46

Net Debt / EBITDA

-0.19

1.89%

Dividend Yield

0.24%

CF: 4Ties: 1GOOGL: 7

CFGOOGL

Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

GOOGL

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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$-1.50

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$3.20B

Δ Market Cap

$-4.79B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

GOOGL

$9.18

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$288.67B

Δ Market Cap

+$2.65T

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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23.6% Margin of Safety

Price is 23.6% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $102.93

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $134.72

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

GOOGL

289.6% Overvalued

Price is 289.6% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $368.03

Strongly undervalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $94.46

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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What growth rate is the market pricing in at $103?

+0.7%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies -2.4%

The market implies +0.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding -2.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

GOOGL

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $368?

+22.9%

Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.

Economic Moat Score

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41/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

GOOGL

89/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Forensic Accounting

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-2.83

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

GOOGL

-2.92

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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Insiders 0.4%Institutions 103.3%

No. of Institutional Holders1,313

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

GOOGL

Insiders 1.2%Institutions 80.8%Retail & Other 18.1%

No. of Institutional Holders7,263

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

GOOGL

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $71.51M

FROST BERT A

Officer

$756,000

@ $126.00 · 2026-03-17

MAYER ERIK M.

Officer

$187,035

@ $124.69 · 2026-03-17

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$10.33M

@ $126.56 · 2026-03-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$2.45M

@ $136.06 · 2026-03-12

FROST BERT A

Officer

$854,316

@ $136.69 · 2026-03-12

FROST BERT A

Officer

$1.83M

@ $118.01 · 2026-03-09

MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK

General Counsel

$427,089

@ $116.50 · 2026-03-06

MAYER ERIK M.

Officer

$255,749

@ $116.25 · 2026-03-06

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$6.27M

@ $109.35 · 2026-03-05

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$799,200

@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$270,729

@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05

DEMPSEY LINDA M

Officer

$213,000

@ $106.50 · 2026-03-05

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$7.01M

@ $109.06 · 2026-03-03

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$415,250

@ $106.09 · 2026-03-03

MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK

General Counsel

$291,426

@ $105.36 · 2026-03-03

WILL W ANTHONY

Former

$24.37M

@ $102.63 · 2026-03-02

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$713,232

@ $104.00 · 2026-03-02

FROST BERT A

Officer

$540,761

@ $105.99 · 2026-03-02

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$889,696

@ $103.08 · 2026-03-02

DEMPSEY LINDA M

Officer

$100,000

@ $100.00 · 2026-02-27

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$311,859

@ $97.00 · 2026-02-26

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$11.22M

@ $100.25 · 2026-02-20

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$1.00M

@ $100.23 · 2025-06-20

FROST BERT A

Officer

$2.57M

@ $98.79 · 2025-06-16

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$549,535

@ $99.95 · 2025-06-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$276,300

@ $96.95 · 2025-01-16

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$142,500

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

FROST BERT A

Officer

$285,000

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$844,457

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$325,000

@ $92.86 · 2024-12-03

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$635,487

@ $90.78 · 2024-11-21

FROST BERT A

Officer

$264,000

@ $88.00 · 2024-11-20

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$180,000

@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04

FROST BERT A

Officer

$270,000

@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$648,269

@ $90.02 · 2024-10-04

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

GOOGL

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

No open market insider sales found.

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😨Fear(35/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

GOOGL

😐Neutral(58/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (35)

GOOGL

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (58)

View CF Full Analysis View GOOGL Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: CF vs GOOGL

Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. or Alphabet Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, CF trades at a 29.8% margin of safety (intrinsic value $147 vs. price $103), compared to GOOGL's -289.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $94 vs. $368).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. or Alphabet Inc.?▼

GOOGL scores 89/100 (Wide moat), while CF scores 41/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Alphabet Inc. in financial distress?▼

GOOGL's Altman Z-Score of 2.4 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. CF scores 2.8 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. or Alphabet Inc.?▼

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) generates a 11.4% free cash flow yield, compared to Alphabet Inc.'s 1.6%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. or Alphabet Inc.?▼

GOOGL earns 21.0% ROIC versus CF's 16.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s or Alphabet Inc.'s?▼

GOOGL's dividend earns a safety score of 88/100 (Very Safe), compared to CF's 85/100 (Very Safe). GOOGL has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.