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Compare Stocks › CF vs GOOGL

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) vs Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
$122.69
VS
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
$385.69

Rewards

CF
  • ★CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 21% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
GOOGL
  • ★Alphabet Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 60.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Alphabet Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

CF
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 13.7x is 50% above the historical average of 9.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠22 insider sales totaling $70.5M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 19.0% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
GOOGL
  • ⚠FCF yield of 1.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.

Key Valuation Metrics

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CF
GOOGL
Valuation
$1.80B
Free Cash Flow
$73.27B
9.56%
FCF Yield
1.57%
13.68
Trailing P/E
29.42
13.19
Forward P/E
27.06
Quality & Moat
17.32%
ROIC
20.98%
18.71%
ROE
27.61%
38.45%
Gross Margin
60.37%
0.37
PEG Ratio
0.36
Balance Sheet Safety
0.47
Debt / Equity
0.20
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.51
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.19
1.63%
Dividend Yield
0.22%
CF: 4Ties: 2GOOGL: 6
CFGOOGL

Historical Fundamentals

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CF

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

GOOGL

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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CF
$-1.50
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$3.20B
Δ Market Cap
$-4.79B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
GOOGL
$9.18
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$288.67B
Δ Market Cap
+$2.65T
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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CF
8.6% Margin of Safety
Price is 8.6% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $122.69
Fair Value: $134.23
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
GOOGL
241.8% Overvalued
Price is 241.8% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $385.69
Fair Value: $112.84
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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CF

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $123?

+2.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -0.0%

The market implies +2.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding -0.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

GOOGL

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $386?

+23.5%
Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.

Economic Moat Score

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CF
41/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
GOOGL
89/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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CF
-2.83
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
GOOGL
-2.92
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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CF
Insiders 0.4%Institutions 108.3%
No. of Institutional Holders1,226
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
GOOGL
Insiders 0.6%Institutions 80.8%Retail & Other 18.6%
No. of Institutional Holders7,168
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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CF
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
GOOGL
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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CF
22
Sells (3M)
25
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $74.63M
MAYER ERIK M.
Officer
$187,035
@ $124.69 · 2026-03-17
FROST BERT A
Officer
$756,000
@ $126.00 · 2026-03-17
WILL W ANTHONY
Director
$10.33M
@ $126.56 · 2026-03-13
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$2.45M
@ $136.06 · 2026-03-12
FROST BERT A
Officer
$854,316
@ $136.69 · 2026-03-12
FROST BERT A
Officer
$1.83M
@ $118.01 · 2026-03-09
MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK
General Counsel
$427,089
@ $116.50 · 2026-03-06
MAYER ERIK M.
Officer
$255,749
@ $116.25 · 2026-03-06
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$270,729
@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05
DEMPSEY LINDA M
Officer
$213,000
@ $106.50 · 2026-03-05
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$799,200
@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05
WILL W ANTHONY
Director
$6.27M
@ $109.35 · 2026-03-05
MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK
General Counsel
$291,426
@ $105.36 · 2026-03-03
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$415,250
@ $106.09 · 2026-03-03
WILL W ANTHONY
Director
$7.01M
@ $109.06 · 2026-03-03
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$889,696
@ $103.08 · 2026-03-02
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$713,232
@ $104.00 · 2026-03-02
WILL W ANTHONY
Former
$24.37M
@ $102.63 · 2026-03-02
FROST BERT A
Officer
$540,761
@ $105.99 · 2026-03-02
DEMPSEY LINDA M
Officer
$100,000
@ $100.00 · 2026-02-27
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$311,859
@ $97.00 · 2026-02-26
WILL W ANTHONY
Director
$11.22M
@ $100.25 · 2026-02-20
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$1.00M
@ $100.23 · 2025-06-20
FROST BERT A
Officer
$2.57M
@ $98.79 · 2025-06-16
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$549,535
@ $99.95 · 2025-06-13
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$276,300
@ $96.95 · 2025-01-16
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$844,457
@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$142,500
@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
FROST BERT A
Officer
$285,000
@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$325,000
@ $92.86 · 2024-12-03
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$635,487
@ $90.78 · 2024-11-21
FROST BERT A
Officer
$264,000
@ $88.00 · 2024-11-20
MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
Officer
$648,269
@ $90.02 · 2024-10-04
MENZEL SUSAN L
Officer
$180,000
@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04
FROST BERT A
Officer
$270,000
@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
GOOGL
0
Sells (3M)
0
Sells (12M)
No open market insider sales found.
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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CF
FearGreed
😐Neutral(52/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
GOOGL
FearGreed
😏Greed(73/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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CF
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (52)
GOOGL
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (73)
View CF Full AnalysisView GOOGL Full Analysis
CF vs GOOGL: Which Is the Better Buy? | SafetyMargin.io