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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) vs Intuit Inc. (INTU): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-09-17, CF is fairly valued at $134, with a DCF intrinsic value of $152 and a margin of safety of 12%. INTU is undervalued at $320, with an intrinsic value of $565 and a margin of safety of 43%. Of the two, INTU has the wider margin of safety.

CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
$133.67
VS
INTU
Intuit Inc.
$319.54

Rewards

CF
  • ★CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 21% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
INTU
  • ★Intuit Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Gross margin of 81.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Intuit Inc. scores 94/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

CF
  • ⚠22 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 19.0% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
INTU

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    CF
    INTU
    Valuation
    $1.80B
    Free Cash Flow
    $8.62B
    8.90%
    FCF Yield
    10.09%
    9.92
    Trailing P/E
    19.42
    12.51
    Forward P/E
    11.69
    Quality & Moat
    24.06%
    ROIC
    10.90%
    29.87%
    ROE
    23.60%
    42.49%
    Gross Margin
    80.98%
    0.59
    PEG Ratio
    1.08
    Balance Sheet Safety
    0.13
    Net Debt / Equity
    0.06
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    0.29
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.18
    1.82%
    Dividend Yield
    1.74%
    CF: 4Ties: 2INTU: 6
    CFINTU

    Historical Fundamentals

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    CF

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    INTU

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    CF
    $-1.50
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $3.20B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-4.79B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    INTU
    $-11.43
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $7.83B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-89.51B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    CF
    4.3% Margin of Safety
    Price is 4.3% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $133.67
    Fair Value: $139.70
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    INTU
    43.5% Margin of Safety
    Price is 43.5% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $319.54
    Fair Value: $565.45
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    CF

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $134?

    +3.5%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +0.5%

    The market implies +3.5% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +0.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    INTU

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $320?

    +5.2%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies -1.8%

    The market implies +5.2% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

    Standard FCF implies a more demanding -1.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

    Economic Moat Score

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    CF
    41/100
    Narrow Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    INTU
    94/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    CF
    -2.83
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    INTU
    -2.98
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    CF
    Insiders 0.4%Institutions 108.9%
    No. of Institutional Holders1,377
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    INTU
    Insiders 2.4%Institutions 93.5%Retail & Other 4.0%
    No. of Institutional Holders2,541
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    CF
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    INTU
    0
    Buys (3M)
    1
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $541,665
    PRABHU VASANT M.
    Director
    $541,665
    @ $309.52 · 2026-05-26
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    CF
    0
    Sells (3M)
    22
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $70.51M
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $756,000
    @ $126.00 · 2026-03-17
    MAYER ERIK M.
    Officer
    $187,035
    @ $124.69 · 2026-03-17
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Director
    $10.33M
    @ $126.56 · 2026-03-13
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $2.45M
    @ $136.06 · 2026-03-12
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $854,316
    @ $136.69 · 2026-03-12
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $1.83M
    @ $118.01 · 2026-03-09
    MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK
    General Counsel
    $427,089
    @ $116.50 · 2026-03-06
    MAYER ERIK M.
    Officer
    $255,749
    @ $116.25 · 2026-03-06
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $799,200
    @ $111.00 · 2026-03-05
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $270,729
    @ $111.00 · 2026-03-05
    DEMPSEY LINDA M
    Officer
    $213,000
    @ $106.50 · 2026-03-05
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Director
    $6.27M
    @ $109.35 · 2026-03-05
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $415,250
    @ $106.09 · 2026-03-03
    MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK
    General Counsel
    $291,426
    @ $105.36 · 2026-03-03
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Director
    $7.01M
    @ $109.06 · 2026-03-03
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $713,232
    @ $104.00 · 2026-03-02
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $889,696
    @ $103.08 · 2026-03-02
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $540,761
    @ $105.99 · 2026-03-02
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Former
    $24.37M
    @ $102.63 · 2026-03-02
    DEMPSEY LINDA M
    Officer
    $100,000
    @ $100.00 · 2026-02-27
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $311,859
    @ $97.00 · 2026-02-26
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Director
    $11.22M
    @ $100.25 · 2026-02-20
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $1.00M
    @ $100.23 · 2025-06-20
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $2.57M
    @ $98.79 · 2025-06-16
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $549,535
    @ $99.95 · 2025-06-13
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $276,300
    @ $96.95 · 2025-01-16
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $142,500
    @ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $844,457
    @ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $285,000
    @ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $325,000
    @ $92.86 · 2024-12-03
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $635,487
    @ $90.78 · 2024-11-21
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $264,000
    @ $88.00 · 2024-11-20
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $180,000
    @ $90.00 · 2024-10-04
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $648,269
    @ $90.02 · 2024-10-04
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $270,000
    @ $90.00 · 2024-10-04
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    INTU
    3
    Sells (3M)
    11
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $4.34M
    DALZELL RICHARD L
    Director
    $92,728
    @ $325.36 · 2026-09-08
    HOTZ LAUREN DALE
    Officer
    $314,288
    @ $346.90 · 2026-08-27
    DALZELL RICHARD L
    Director
    $74,499
    @ $262.32 · 2026-06-23
    DALZELL RICHARD L
    Director
    $80,145
    @ $282.20 · 2026-06-16
    DALZELL RICHARD L
    Director
    $289,448
    @ $288.29 · 2026-06-11
    DALZELL RICHARD L
    Director
    $457,046
    @ $457.50 · 2026-03-12
    AUJLA SANDEEP S
    Chief Financial Officer
    $840,097
    @ $629.76 · 2026-01-05
    AUJLA SANDEEP S
    Chief Financial Officer
    $741,172
    @ $675.02 · 2025-12-19
    DALZELL RICHARD L
    Director
    $219,763
    @ $659.95 · 2025-12-11
    DALZELL RICHARD L
    Director
    $435,354
    @ $653.68 · 2025-12-10
    AUJLA SANDEEP S
    Chief Financial Officer
    $792,160
    @ $677.06 · 2025-10-03
    DALZELL RICHARD L
    Director
    $665,951
    @ $666.62 · 2025-09-11
    AUJLA SANDEEP S
    Chief Financial Officer
    $27,930
    @ $665.00 · 2025-08-25
    DALZELL RICHARD L
    Director
    $255,887
    @ $768.43 · 2025-07-10
    DALZELL RICHARD L
    Director
    $521,891
    @ $783.62 · 2025-07-09
    BALAZS ALEX G
    Chief Technology Officer
    $689,400
    @ $782.52 · 2025-07-08
    AUJLA SANDEEP S
    Chief Financial Officer
    $2.03M
    @ $782.22 · 2025-07-03
    AUJLA SANDEEP S
    Chief Financial Officer
    $1.25M
    @ $773.90 · 2025-07-02
    NOTARAINNI MARK PHILLIP
    Officer
    $887,583
    @ $774.51 · 2025-07-02
    HOTZ LAUREN DALE
    Officer
    $1.36M
    @ $784.24 · 2025-06-27
    BALAZS ALEX G
    Chief Technology Officer
    $1.12M
    @ $771.24 · 2025-06-05
    TESSEL MARIANNA
    Officer
    $26.12M
    @ $760.84 · 2025-06-03
    FENNELL LAURA A
    Officer
    $19.29M
    @ $752.25 · 2025-05-29
    FENNELL LAURA A
    Officer
    $30.46M
    @ $738.61 · 2025-05-28
    AUJLA SANDEEP S
    Chief Financial Officer
    $11.66M
    @ $726.15 · 2025-05-27
    NOTARAINNI MARK PHILLIP
    Officer
    $340,143
    @ $725.25 · 2025-05-27
    MCLEAN KERRY JEAN
    General Counsel
    $12.18M
    @ $729.16 · 2025-05-27
    FENNELL LAURA A
    Officer
    $5.00M
    @ $612.45 · 2025-03-24
    TESSEL MARIANNA
    Officer
    $4.43M
    @ $600.13 · 2025-03-21
    BURTON EVE B
    Director
    $1.02M
    @ $600.00 · 2025-03-20
    HOTZ LAUREN DALE
    Officer
    $667,838
    @ $619.52 · 2025-01-10
    AUJLA SANDEEP S
    Chief Financial Officer
    $814,350
    @ $626.42 · 2025-01-08
    FENNELL LAURA A
    Officer
    $2.94M
    @ $613.70 · 2025-01-07
    AUJLA SANDEEP S
    Chief Financial Officer
    $68,506
    @ $628.50 · 2025-01-03
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

    Learn more →
    CF
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(59/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    INTU
    FearGreed
    😨Fear(33/100)

    "Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

    Learn more →
    CF
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)
    INTU
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (33)
    View CF Full AnalysisView INTU Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: CF vs INTU

    Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. or Intuit Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, INTU trades at a 43.5% margin of safety (intrinsic value $565 vs. price $320), compared to CF's 11.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $152 vs. $134).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. or Intuit Inc.?▼

    INTU scores 94/100 (Wide moat), while CF scores 41/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. in financial distress?▼

    CF's Altman Z-Score of 2.8 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. INTU scores 4.9 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which company has better free cash flow, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. or Intuit Inc.?▼

    Intuit Inc. (INTU) generates a 10.1% free cash flow yield, compared to CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s 8.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. or Intuit Inc.?▼

    CF earns 24.1% ROIC versus INTU's 10.9%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s or Intuit Inc.'s?▼

    INTU's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to CF's 85/100 (Very Safe). INTU has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.