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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) vs Intel Corporation (INTC)

CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
$125.56
VS
INTC
Intel Corporation
$46.18

Rewards

CF
  • ★CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 21% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
INTC

    Risks

    CF
    • ⚠Trailing P/E of 14.0x is 54% above the historical average of 9.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
    • ⚠20 insider sales totaling $69.6M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
    • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 19.0% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
    INTC
    • ⚠Intel Corporation scores only 17/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    CF
    INTC
    Valuation
    $1.80B
    Free Cash Flow
    $-4.50B
    9.20%
    FCF Yield
    -1.95%
    14.01
    Trailing P/E
    N/A
    16.80
    Forward P/E
    46.59
    Quality & Moat
    17.32%
    ROIC
    1.24%
    18.71%
    ROE
    -0.21%
    38.45%
    Gross Margin
    36.56%
    0.38
    PEG Ratio
    N/A
    Balance Sheet Safety
    0.47
    Debt / Equity
    0.37
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    0.51
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.77
    1.59%
    Dividend Yield
    N/A
    CF: 7Ties: 1INTC: 1
    CFINTC

    Historical Fundamentals

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    CF

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    INTC

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    CF
    $-1.50
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $3.20B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-4.79B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    INTC
    N/A
    Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
    Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
    Σ Retained
    $-22.02B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$74.94B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    CF
    5.0% Margin of Safety
    Price is 5.0% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $125.56
    Fair Value: $132.20
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    INTC
    Insufficient Data
    Enter initial FCF to calculate intrinsic value
    Current Price: $46.18
    Fair Value: $0.00
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    CF

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $126?

    +3.4%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +0.5%

    The market implies +3.4% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +0.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    INTC

    Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

    Economic Moat Score

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    CF
    41/100
    Narrow Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    INTC
    17/100
    No Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    CF
    -2.83
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    INTC
    -2.59
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    CF
    Insiders 0.4%Institutions 106.6%
    No. of Institutional Holders1,170
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    INTC
    Insiders 4.4%Institutions 62.0%Retail & Other 33.6%
    No. of Institutional Holders3,154
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    CF
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    INTC
    1
    Buys (3M)
    1
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $249,985
    ZINSNER DAVID A
    Chief Financial Officer
    $249,985
    @ $42.50 · 2026-01-26
    GELSINGER PATRICK P
    Chief Executive Officer
    $251,198
    @ $22.53 · 2024-11-04
    GELSINGER PATRICK P
    Chief Executive Officer
    $251,946
    @ $20.16 · 2024-08-05
    GELSINGER PATRICK P
    Chief Executive Officer
    $124,173
    @ $30.29 · 2024-05-01
    GELSINGER PATRICK P
    Chief Executive Officer
    $125,674
    @ $31.42 · 2024-04-29
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    CF
    20
    Sells (3M)
    23
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $73.69M
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Director
    $10.33M
    @ $126.56 · 2026-03-13
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $2.45M
    @ $136.06 · 2026-03-12
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $854,316
    @ $136.69 · 2026-03-12
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $1.83M
    @ $118.01 · 2026-03-09
    MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK
    General Counsel
    $427,089
    @ $116.50 · 2026-03-06
    MAYER ERIK M.
    Officer
    $255,749
    @ $116.25 · 2026-03-06
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Director
    $6.27M
    @ $109.35 · 2026-03-05
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $799,200
    @ $111.00 · 2026-03-05
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $270,729
    @ $111.00 · 2026-03-05
    DEMPSEY LINDA M
    Officer
    $213,000
    @ $106.50 · 2026-03-05
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Director
    $7.01M
    @ $109.06 · 2026-03-03
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $415,250
    @ $106.09 · 2026-03-03
    MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK
    General Counsel
    $291,426
    @ $105.36 · 2026-03-03
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Former
    $24.37M
    @ $102.63 · 2026-03-02
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $713,232
    @ $104.00 · 2026-03-02
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $540,761
    @ $105.99 · 2026-03-02
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $889,696
    @ $103.08 · 2026-03-02
    DEMPSEY LINDA M
    Officer
    $100,000
    @ $100.00 · 2026-02-27
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $311,859
    @ $97.00 · 2026-02-26
    WILL W ANTHONY
    Director
    $11.22M
    @ $100.25 · 2026-02-20
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $1.00M
    @ $100.23 · 2025-06-20
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $2.57M
    @ $98.79 · 2025-06-16
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $549,535
    @ $99.95 · 2025-06-13
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $276,300
    @ $96.95 · 2025-01-16
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $142,500
    @ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $285,000
    @ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $844,457
    @ $95.00 · 2025-01-13
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $325,000
    @ $92.86 · 2024-12-03
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $635,487
    @ $90.78 · 2024-11-21
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $264,000
    @ $88.00 · 2024-11-20
    MENZEL SUSAN L
    Officer
    $180,000
    @ $90.00 · 2024-10-04
    FROST BERT A
    Officer
    $270,000
    @ $90.00 · 2024-10-04
    MALIK ASHRAF KHAN
    Officer
    $648,269
    @ $90.02 · 2024-10-04
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    INTC
    1
    Sells (3M)
    1
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $981,000
    MILLER BOISE APRIL
    Officer
    $981,000
    @ $49.05 · 2026-02-02
    HOLTHAUS MICHELLE JOHNSTON
    General Counsel
    $650,000
    @ $26.00 · 2024-11-07
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    CF
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(53/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    INTC
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(53/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    CF
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (53)
    INTC
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (53)
    View CF Full AnalysisView INTC Full Analysis