CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) vs Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Stock Comparison

Compare Stocks › CF vs PFE

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

$125.56

PFE

Pfizer Inc.

$27.41

Rewards

★CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
★Share count has been reduced by 21% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.

PFE

★Gross margin of 75.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Dividend yield of 6.28% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.
★FCF yield of 8.6% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.

Risks

⚠Trailing P/E of 14.0x is 54% above the historical average of 9.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
⚠20 insider sales totaling $69.6M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 19.0% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

PFE

⚠ROIC has declined by 13.9 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 29.6% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

Key Valuation Metrics

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PFE

Valuation

$1.80B

Free Cash Flow

$13.43B

9.20%

FCF Yield

8.61%

14.01

Trailing P/E

20.15

16.80

Forward P/E

9.69

Quality & Moat

17.32%

ROIC

7.67%

18.71%

ROE

8.96%

38.45%

Gross Margin

75.81%

0.38

PEG Ratio

N/A

Balance Sheet Safety

0.47

Debt / Equity

0.78

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

0.51

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.10

1.59%

Dividend Yield

6.28%

CF: 6Ties: 1PFE: 4

CFPFE

Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

PFE

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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$-1.50

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$3.20B

Δ Market Cap

$-4.79B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

PFE

N/A

Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable

Company had negative cumulative retained earnings

Σ Retained

$-10.61B

Δ Market Cap

$-146.18B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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5.0% Margin of Safety

Price is 5.0% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $125.56

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $132.20

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

PFE

140.2% Overvalued

Price is 140.2% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $27.41

Strongly undervalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $11.41

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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What growth rate is the market pricing in at $126?

+3.4%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +0.5%

The market implies +3.4% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +0.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

PFE

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $27?

+11.8%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +4.3%

The market implies +11.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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41/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

PFE

35/100

No Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Forensic Accounting

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-2.83

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

PFE

-2.53

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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Insiders 0.4%Institutions 106.6%

No. of Institutional Holders1,170

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

PFE

Insiders 0.1%Institutions 67.7%Retail & Other 32.2%

No. of Institutional Holders3,692

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

PFE

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

BLAYLOCK RONALD E

Director

$499,072

@ $25.65 · 2025-02-13

GOTTLIEB SCOTT

Director

$28,240

@ $28.24 · 2024-10-30

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $73.69M

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$10.33M

@ $126.56 · 2026-03-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$2.45M

@ $136.06 · 2026-03-12

FROST BERT A

Officer

$854,316

@ $136.69 · 2026-03-12

FROST BERT A

Officer

$1.83M

@ $118.01 · 2026-03-09

MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK

General Counsel

$427,089

@ $116.50 · 2026-03-06

MAYER ERIK M.

Officer

$255,749

@ $116.25 · 2026-03-06

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$6.27M

@ $109.35 · 2026-03-05

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$799,200

@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$270,729

@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05

DEMPSEY LINDA M

Officer

$213,000

@ $106.50 · 2026-03-05

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$7.01M

@ $109.06 · 2026-03-03

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$415,250

@ $106.09 · 2026-03-03

MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK

General Counsel

$291,426

@ $105.36 · 2026-03-03

WILL W ANTHONY

Former

$24.37M

@ $102.63 · 2026-03-02

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$713,232

@ $104.00 · 2026-03-02

FROST BERT A

Officer

$540,761

@ $105.99 · 2026-03-02

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$889,696

@ $103.08 · 2026-03-02

DEMPSEY LINDA M

Officer

$100,000

@ $100.00 · 2026-02-27

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$311,859

@ $97.00 · 2026-02-26

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$11.22M

@ $100.25 · 2026-02-20

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$1.00M

@ $100.23 · 2025-06-20

FROST BERT A

Officer

$2.57M

@ $98.79 · 2025-06-16

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$549,535

@ $99.95 · 2025-06-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$276,300

@ $96.95 · 2025-01-16

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$142,500

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

FROST BERT A

Officer

$285,000

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$844,457

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$325,000

@ $92.86 · 2024-12-03

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$635,487

@ $90.78 · 2024-11-21

FROST BERT A

Officer

$264,000

@ $88.00 · 2024-11-20

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$180,000

@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04

FROST BERT A

Officer

$270,000

@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$648,269

@ $90.02 · 2024-10-04

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

PFE

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

DAMICO JENNIFER B.

Officer

$64,825

@ $25.93 · 2025-03-04

DAMICO JENNIFER B.

Officer

$147,714

@ $28.66 · 2024-08-13

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😐Neutral(53/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

PFE

😏Greed(64/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (53)

PFE

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (64)

View CF Full Analysis View PFE Full Analysis