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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) vs Morgan Stanley (MS): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, CF is fairly valued at $125, with a DCF intrinsic value of $147 and a margin of safety of 15%. MS is undervalued at $210, with an intrinsic value of $269 and a margin of safety of 22%. Of the two, MS has the wider margin of safety.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

$125.19

Morgan Stanley

$210.42

Rewards

★CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
★Share count has been reduced by 21% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.

★Gross margin of 87.6% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Morgan Stanley scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.56 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

Risks

⚠PEG ratio of 3.75 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
⚠22 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 19.0% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
⚠Insiders have sold $5.4M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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Valuation

$1.80B

Free Cash Flow

N/A

9.36%

FCF Yield

N/A

11.28

Trailing P/E

17.01

11.11

Forward P/E

15.45

Quality & Moat

16.55%

ROIC

3.68%

27.30%

ROE

14.08%

39.13%

Gross Margin

87.64%

3.75

PEG Ratio

1.99

Balance Sheet Safety

0.19

Net Debt / Equity

Net cash

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

0.46

Net Debt / EBITDA

N/A

1.92%

Dividend Yield

2.19%

CF: 4Ties: 1MS: 4

CFMS

Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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$-1.50

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$3.20B

Δ Market Cap

$-4.79B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

$6.65

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$20.84B

Δ Market Cap

+$138.59B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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7.1% Margin of Safety

Price is 7.1% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $125.19

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $134.72

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

21.9% Margin of Safety

Price is 21.9% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $210.42

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $269.50

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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What growth rate is the market pricing in at $125?

+3.1%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +0.2%

The market implies +3.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +0.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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41/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

80/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Forensic Accounting

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-2.83

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

-2.09

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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Insiders 0.4%Institutions 104.8%

No. of Institutional Holders1,333

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insiders 24.4%Institutions 63.1%Retail & Other 12.5%

No. of Institutional Holders3,329

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $5,630

PETERSON DOUGLAS L

Director

$5,630

@ $156.39 · 2025-10-17

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $70.51M

MAYER ERIK M.

Officer

$187,035

@ $124.69 · 2026-03-17

FROST BERT A

Officer

$756,000

@ $126.00 · 2026-03-17

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$10.33M

@ $126.56 · 2026-03-13

FROST BERT A

Officer

$854,316

@ $136.69 · 2026-03-12

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$2.45M

@ $136.06 · 2026-03-12

FROST BERT A

Officer

$1.83M

@ $118.01 · 2026-03-09

MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK

General Counsel

$427,089

@ $116.50 · 2026-03-06

MAYER ERIK M.

Officer

$255,749

@ $116.25 · 2026-03-06

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$270,729

@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05

DEMPSEY LINDA M

Officer

$213,000

@ $106.50 · 2026-03-05

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$6.27M

@ $109.35 · 2026-03-05

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$799,200

@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05

MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK

General Counsel

$291,426

@ $105.36 · 2026-03-03

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$7.01M

@ $109.06 · 2026-03-03

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$415,250

@ $106.09 · 2026-03-03

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$889,696

@ $103.08 · 2026-03-02

FROST BERT A

Officer

$540,761

@ $105.99 · 2026-03-02

WILL W ANTHONY

Former

$24.37M

@ $102.63 · 2026-03-02

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$713,232

@ $104.00 · 2026-03-02

DEMPSEY LINDA M

Officer

$100,000

@ $100.00 · 2026-02-27

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$311,859

@ $97.00 · 2026-02-26

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$11.22M

@ $100.25 · 2026-02-20

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$1.00M

@ $100.23 · 2025-06-20

FROST BERT A

Officer

$2.57M

@ $98.79 · 2025-06-16

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$549,535

@ $99.95 · 2025-06-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$276,300

@ $96.95 · 2025-01-16

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$844,457

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

FROST BERT A

Officer

$285,000

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$142,500

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$325,000

@ $92.86 · 2024-12-03

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$635,487

@ $90.78 · 2024-11-21

FROST BERT A

Officer

$264,000

@ $88.00 · 2024-11-20

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$648,269

@ $90.02 · 2024-10-04

FROST BERT A

Officer

$270,000

@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$180,000

@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $64.71M

SCHAPIRO MARY L

Director

$212,055

@ $212.06 · 2026-07-28

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$5.21M

@ $215.55 · 2026-07-17

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$2.12M

@ $190.75 · 2026-04-20

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$2.78M

@ $189.24 · 2026-04-17

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$9.74M

@ $188.59 · 2026-04-16

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$3.04M

@ $188.22 · 2026-04-16

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$6.02M

@ $182.61 · 2026-01-30

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$3.69M

@ $184.55 · 2026-01-20

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$5.57M

@ $183.62 · 2026-01-20

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$3.97M

@ $184.00 · 2026-01-20

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$1.44M

@ $183.45 · 2026-01-20

YESHAYA SHARON

Chief Financial Officer

$2.94M

@ $185.77 · 2026-01-20

SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III

Officer

$1.55M

@ $182.08 · 2026-01-20

PICK EDWARD N.

Chief Executive Officer

$16.43M

@ $164.34 · 2025-10-31

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$2.53M

@ $140.62 · 2025-07-17

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.69M

@ $141.12 · 2025-07-17

SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III

Officer

$2.81M

@ $140.30 · 2025-07-17

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$4.09M

@ $141.13 · 2025-07-17

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$3.70M

@ $127.37 · 2025-05-12

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$4.80M

@ $120.00 · 2025-05-02

HERZ ROBERT H

Director

$95,459

@ $119.32 · 2025-05-02

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.12M

@ $111.65 · 2025-04-15

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$1.15M

@ $138.06 · 2025-01-22

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$2.52M

@ $136.92 · 2025-01-21

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$4.20M

@ $136.43 · 2025-01-21

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.78M

@ $136.20 · 2025-01-21

AKRAM RAJA

Chief Financial Officer

$2.38M

@ $136.01 · 2025-01-21

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$5.00M

@ $136.61 · 2025-01-21

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😐Neutral(55/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

😐Neutral(57/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (55)

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (57)

View CF Full Analysis View MS Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: CF vs MS

Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. or Morgan Stanley more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, MS trades at a 21.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $269 vs. price $210), compared to CF's 14.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $147 vs. $125).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. or Morgan Stanley?▼

MS scores 80/100 (Wide moat), while CF scores 41/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Morgan Stanley in financial distress?▼

MS's Altman Z-Score of 0.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. CF scores 2.8 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. or Morgan Stanley?▼

CF earns 16.5% ROIC versus MS's 3.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s or Morgan Stanley's?▼

CF's dividend earns a safety score of 85/100 (Very Safe), compared to MS's 79/100 (Safe). CF has raised its dividend for 0 consecutive years.