CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) vs Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Stock Comparison

Compare Stocks › CF vs MSFT

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

$125.56

MSFT

Microsoft Corporation

$389.02

Rewards

★CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
★Share count has been reduced by 21% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.

MSFT

★Microsoft Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 68.6% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Microsoft Corporation scores 88/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

⚠Trailing P/E of 14.0x is 54% above the historical average of 9.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
⚠20 insider sales totaling $69.6M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 19.0% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

MSFT

⚠FCF yield of 2.5% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.

Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →

MSFT

Valuation

$1.80B

Free Cash Flow

$71.61B

9.20%

FCF Yield

2.48%

14.01

Trailing P/E

24.33

16.80

Forward P/E

20.64

Quality & Moat

17.32%

ROIC

22.10%

18.71%

ROE

26.05%

38.45%

Gross Margin

68.59%

0.38

PEG Ratio

0.41

Balance Sheet Safety

0.47

Debt / Equity

0.32

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

0.51

Net Debt / EBITDA

0.19

1.59%

Dividend Yield

0.94%

CF: 5Ties: 1MSFT: 6

CFMSFT

Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

MSFT

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →

$-1.50

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$3.20B

Δ Market Cap

$-4.79B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

MSFT

$9.18

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$196.68B

Δ Market Cap

+$1.81T

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →

5.0% Margin of Safety

Price is 5.0% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $125.56

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $132.20

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

MSFT

0.5% Overvalued

Price is 0.5% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $389.02

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $387.10

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $126?

+3.4%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +0.5%

The market implies +3.4% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +0.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

MSFT

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $389?

+12.6%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +17.4%

The market implies +12.6% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +17.4%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

Learn more →

41/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

MSFT

88/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Forensic Accounting

Learn more →

-2.83

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

MSFT

-2.51

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

Learn more →

Insiders 0.4%Institutions 106.6%

No. of Institutional Holders1,170

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

MSFT

Insiders 0.1%Institutions 76.0%Retail & Other 23.9%

No. of Institutional Holders8,054

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

MSFT

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $3.44M

STANTON JOHN W.

Director

$1.99M

@ $397.35 · 2026-02-18

SMITH BRADFORD LEE

President

$1.45M

@ $377.47 · 2025-04-23

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $73.69M

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$10.33M

@ $126.56 · 2026-03-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$2.45M

@ $136.06 · 2026-03-12

FROST BERT A

Officer

$854,316

@ $136.69 · 2026-03-12

FROST BERT A

Officer

$1.83M

@ $118.01 · 2026-03-09

MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK

General Counsel

$427,089

@ $116.50 · 2026-03-06

MAYER ERIK M.

Officer

$255,749

@ $116.25 · 2026-03-06

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$6.27M

@ $109.35 · 2026-03-05

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$799,200

@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$270,729

@ $111.00 · 2026-03-05

DEMPSEY LINDA M

Officer

$213,000

@ $106.50 · 2026-03-05

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$7.01M

@ $109.06 · 2026-03-03

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$415,250

@ $106.09 · 2026-03-03

MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK

General Counsel

$291,426

@ $105.36 · 2026-03-03

WILL W ANTHONY

Former

$24.37M

@ $102.63 · 2026-03-02

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$713,232

@ $104.00 · 2026-03-02

FROST BERT A

Officer

$540,761

@ $105.99 · 2026-03-02

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$889,696

@ $103.08 · 2026-03-02

DEMPSEY LINDA M

Officer

$100,000

@ $100.00 · 2026-02-27

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$311,859

@ $97.00 · 2026-02-26

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

$11.22M

@ $100.25 · 2026-02-20

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$1.00M

@ $100.23 · 2025-06-20

FROST BERT A

Officer

$2.57M

@ $98.79 · 2025-06-16

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$549,535

@ $99.95 · 2025-06-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$276,300

@ $96.95 · 2025-01-16

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$142,500

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

FROST BERT A

Officer

$285,000

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$844,457

@ $95.00 · 2025-01-13

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$325,000

@ $92.86 · 2024-12-03

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$635,487

@ $90.78 · 2024-11-21

FROST BERT A

Officer

$264,000

@ $88.00 · 2024-11-20

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

$180,000

@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04

FROST BERT A

Officer

$270,000

@ $90.00 · 2024-10-04

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

$648,269

@ $90.02 · 2024-10-04

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

MSFT

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $172.43M

HOGAN KATHLEEN T

Officer

$5.05M

@ $409.55 · 2026-03-06

NUMOTO TAKESHI

Officer

$1.36M

@ $478.72 · 2025-12-04

ALTHOFF JUDSON

Officer

$6.27M

@ $491.52 · 2025-12-02

SMITH BRADFORD LEE

President

$19.97M

@ $518.64 · 2025-11-03

NADELLA SATYA

Chief Executive Officer

$75.32M

@ $504.78 · 2025-09-03

NUMOTO TAKESHI

Officer

$2.56M

@ $527.32 · 2025-08-12

NUMOTO TAKESHI

Officer

$1.39M

@ $463.00 · 2025-06-03

NUMOTO TAKESHI

Officer

$460,008

@ $460.01 · 2025-05-30

HOGAN KATHLEEN T

Officer

$9.76M

@ $453.77 · 2025-05-21

ALTHOFF JUDSON

Officer

$7.33M

@ $458.18 · 2025-05-19

COLEMAN AMY

Officer

$5.99M

@ $452.04 · 2025-05-15

SMITH BRADFORD LEE

President

$1.68M

@ $438.44 · 2025-05-05

SMITH BRADFORD LEE

President

$35.30M

@ $435.84 · 2025-05-05

NUMOTO TAKESHI

Officer

$1.12M

@ $447.41 · 2024-12-09

NUMOTO TAKESHI

Officer

$874,634

@ $437.32 · 2024-12-04

NUMOTO TAKESHI

Officer

$1.50M

@ $428.76 · 2024-12-02

ALTHOFF JUDSON

Officer

$10.43M

@ $417.00 · 2024-11-22

NUMOTO TAKESHI

Officer

$414,720

@ $414.72 · 2024-11-22

YOUNG CHRISTOPHER DAVID

Officer

$3.05M

@ $423.66 · 2024-11-12

HOGAN KATHLEEN T

Officer

$7.16M

@ $411.86 · 2024-09-10

NUMOTO TAKESHI

Officer

$1.03M

@ $411.04 · 2024-09-10

SMITH BRADFORD LEE

President

$16.10M

@ $402.59 · 2024-09-09

HOOD AMY E

Chief Financial Officer

$15.60M

@ $410.55 · 2024-09-05

NADELLA SATYA

Chief Executive Officer

$32.02M

@ $408.63 · 2024-09-04

NUMOTO TAKESHI

Officer

$235,535

@ $416.14 · 2024-06-03

ALTHOFF JUDSON

Officer

$10.64M

@ $425.68 · 2024-05-23

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →

😐Neutral(53/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

MSFT

😐Neutral(43/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (53)

MSFT

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (43)

View CF Full Analysis View MSFT Full Analysis