Consumer Cyclical › Packaging & Containers

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Overview

Market Cap: $18.39B

Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments.

Mar 19, 2026$204.39

1Y +3.0%

Rewards

★Packaging Corporation of America has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $6.95 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
★Altman Z-Score of 3.79 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

⚠Gross margin of 21.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
⚠Insiders have sold $2.8M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

PKG Key Valuation Metrics

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Free Cash Flow

$728.60M

FCF Yield

3.96%

Trailing P/E

23.82

Forward P/E

16.62

ROIC

10.74%

ROE

16.72%

Gross Margin

21.80%

PEG Ratio

N/A

Debt / Equity

0.95

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

1.98

Dividend Yield

2.45%

PKG Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

PKG $1 Retained Earnings Test

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Market Value

$6.95

created per $1 retained

Exceptional Value Creator

Earning Power

$-2.85

created per $1 retained

Earning Power Declined

Σ Retained

$997.1M

Δ Market Cap

+$6.93B

Δ Earning Power

$-2.84B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 retained, how much value did management create?
Market Value = market's verdict (mood-sensitive) · Earning Power = owner earnings / discount rate (mood-independent)

PKG Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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9.0% Margin of Safety

Price is 9.0% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $204.39

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $224.53

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Parameter	Min (Bear)Value	BaseValue	Max (Bull)Value
Initial Cash Flow
Growth Rate (Yr 1-5)	%	%	%
Growth Rate (Yr 6-10)	%	%	%
Terminal Growth Rate	%	%	%
Discount Rate	%	%	%
	Bear Case $131.74 Implied EV: $15.62B	Base Case $224.53 Implied EV: $23.97B	Bull Case $321.19 Implied EV: $32.66B

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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What growth rate is the market pricing in at $204?

+12.6%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +13.4%

The market implies +12.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +13.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

PKG Economic Moat Score

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62/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

PKG Forensic Accounting

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-2.67

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

PKG Management & Board

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Mr. Mark W. Kowlzan

Chairman of the Board & CEO · Age 69

$4.97M

total pay

Mr. Thomas A. Hassfurther PCA

President · Age 69

$3.63M

total pay

Mr. Charles J. Carter

Executive Vice President of Mill Operations · Age 65

$2.12M

total pay

Mr. Donald Ray Shirley

Executive Vice President of Corrugated Products · Age 53

$1.49M

total pay

Mr. Kent A. Pflederer

Executive VP & CFO · Age 54

$1.16M

total pay

Mr. Fabian C. Strauss

Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP of Finance, Controller & Treasurer · Age 44

Dustin D. Sanders

Vice President & Chief Information Officer

Keith D. Ferrara

Vice President of Sales & Marketing

Halane A. Young

Vice President & Chief Human Resources Officer

Ms. Darla J. Olivier

Senior VP of Tax, ESG & Government Affairs · Age 55

PKG Ownership

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Insiders 1.5%Institutions 99.9%

No. of Institutional Holders1,213

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

PKG Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

GOWLAND KAREN E

Director

$54,618

@ $182.06 · 2024-05-15

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

PKG Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $8.19M

HASSFURTHER THOMAS A

President

$2.80M

@ $230.50 · 2026-02-05

KOWLZAN MARK W

Chief Executive Officer

$5.40M

@ $215.97 · 2025-09-11

VAUGHN JOSEPH

Officer

$563,253

@ $244.89 · 2024-12-03

STECKO PAUL T

Director

$2.57M

@ $244.91 · 2024-11-21

SHIRLEY DONALD R.

Officer

$1.92M

@ $240.20 · 2024-11-12

KOWLZAN MARK W

Chief Executive Officer

$16.00M

@ $240.03 · 2024-11-08

MUNDY ROBERT P

Chief Financial Officer

$3.01M

@ $240.62 · 2024-11-08

HASSFURTHER THOMAS A

Officer

$4.78M

@ $242.04 · 2024-11-07

CARTER CHARLES J

Officer

$1.06M

@ $196.28 · 2024-07-25

SHIRLEY DONALD R.

Officer

$1.18M

@ $196.28 · 2024-07-25

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

PKG 🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😨Fear(39/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

PKG ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (39)

PKG Investment Checklist & Notes

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Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:31:48 AM

PKG Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

GOWLAND KAREN E

Director

$54,618

@ $182.06 · 2024-05-15

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

PKG Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $8.19M

HASSFURTHER THOMAS A

President

$2.80M

@ $230.50 · 2026-02-05

KOWLZAN MARK W

Chief Executive Officer

$5.40M

@ $215.97 · 2025-09-11

VAUGHN JOSEPH

Officer

$563,253

@ $244.89 · 2024-12-03

STECKO PAUL T

Director

$2.57M

@ $244.91 · 2024-11-21

SHIRLEY DONALD R.

Officer

$1.92M

@ $240.20 · 2024-11-12

KOWLZAN MARK W

Chief Executive Officer

$16.00M

@ $240.03 · 2024-11-08

MUNDY ROBERT P

Chief Financial Officer

$3.01M

@ $240.62 · 2024-11-08

HASSFURTHER THOMAS A

Officer

$4.78M

@ $242.04 · 2024-11-07

CARTER CHARLES J

Officer

$1.06M

@ $196.28 · 2024-07-25

SHIRLEY DONALD R.

Officer

$1.18M

@ $196.28 · 2024-07-25

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

PKG Investment Checklist & Notes

Learn more →

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:31:48 AM

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Overview

Rewards

Risks

PKG Key Valuation Metrics

PKG Historical Fundamentals

PKG $1 Retained Earnings Test

PKG Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

PKG Economic Moat Score

PKG Forensic Accounting

M-Score Trend

PKG Management & Board

PKG Ownership

PKG Insider Buying Activity

PKG Insider Selling Activity

PKG 🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

PKG ⚖️ Buffett Signal

Compare PKG

PKG Investment Checklist & Notes

PKG Insider Buying Activity

PKG Insider Selling Activity

PKG Investment Checklist & Notes