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Mastercard Incorporated (MA) vs Packaging Corporation of America (PKG): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, MA is fairly valued at $490, with a DCF intrinsic value of $571 and a margin of safety of 14%. PKG is undervalued at $229, with an intrinsic value of $295 and a margin of safety of 22%. Of the two, PKG has the wider margin of safety.

Mastercard Incorporated

$489.79

PKG

Packaging Corporation of America

$229.02

Rewards

★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

PKG

★Packaging Corporation of America has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
★Altman Z-Score of 3.79 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

⚠High leverage (1.60x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠12 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

PKG

⚠Gross margin of 21.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
⚠Trailing P/E of 27.8x is 39% above the historical average of 19.9x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.

Key Valuation Metrics

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PKG

Valuation

$16.15B

Free Cash Flow

$728.60M

3.73%

FCF Yield

3.57%

28.31

Trailing P/E

27.79

21.50

Forward P/E

18.69

Quality & Moat

63.51%

ROIC

10.93%

232.08%

ROE

16.31%

100.00%

Gross Margin

21.75%

1.54

PEG Ratio

1.75

Balance Sheet Safety

1.60

Net Debt / Equity

0.83

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

0.50

Net Debt / EBITDA

1.95

0.69%

Dividend Yield

2.61%

MA: 6Ties: 3PKG: 3

MAPKG

Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

PKG

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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$5.62

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$31.68B

Δ Market Cap

+$177.96B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

PKG

$6.95

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$997.1M

Δ Market Cap

+$6.93B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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14.2% Margin of Safety

Price is 14.2% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $489.79

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $571.14

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

PKG

22.4% Margin of Safety

Price is 22.4% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $229.02

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $295.06

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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What growth rate is the market pricing in at $490?

+13.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +12.0%

The market implies +13.0% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +12.0%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

PKG

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $229?

+13.8%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +14.6%

The market implies +13.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +14.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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99/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

PKG

62/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Forensic Accounting

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-2.53

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

PKG

-2.67

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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Insiders 0.1%Institutions 91.6%Retail & Other 8.3%

No. of Institutional Holders4,804

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

PKG

Insiders 1.6%Institutions 99.9%

No. of Institutional Holders1,247

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

PKG

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $39.22M

LING HAI

Officer

$4.48M

@ $499.20 · 2026-02-24

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.20M

@ $591.00 · 2025-09-02

LING HAI

Officer

$2.69M

@ $600.00 · 2025-08-22

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.46M

@ $586.89 · 2025-08-19

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.83M

@ $566.46 · 2025-08-05

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$178,049

@ $570.67 · 2025-07-07

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-30

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$601,447

@ $546.77 · 2025-06-27

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$173,910

@ $561.00 · 2025-06-24

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-24

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$508,474

@ $535.80 · 2025-06-20

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.02M

@ $532.97 · 2025-06-20

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$1.76M

@ $561.78 · 2025-06-16

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$549,373

@ $572.86 · 2025-06-13

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.55M

@ $588.18 · 2025-06-12

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$8.22M

@ $585.05 · 2025-06-05

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$218,223

@ $577.31 · 2025-05-15

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$257,535

@ $572.30 · 2025-05-12

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$8.68M

@ $550.16 · 2025-03-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$3.81M

@ $534.68 · 2025-03-19

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$9.78M

@ $553.76 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.12M

@ $556.14 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.19M

@ $562.72 · 2025-02-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$6.18M

@ $564.99 · 2025-02-18

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$10.17M

@ $564.95 · 2025-02-18

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$7.97M

@ $565.00 · 2025-02-18

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$2.36M

@ $500.44 · 2024-11-01

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.30M

@ $491.03 · 2024-09-27

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.29M

@ $489.86 · 2024-09-20

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$550,000

@ $500.00 · 2024-09-17

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.31M

@ $493.10 · 2024-09-13

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$528,000

@ $480.00 · 2024-08-29

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.19M

@ $468.80 · 2024-08-22

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.03M

@ $467.02 · 2024-08-21

LING HAI

Officer

$1.36M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.16M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$6.11M

@ $455.00 · 2024-08-05

LING HAI

Officer

$1.35M

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$512,006

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$4.07M

@ $451.06 · 2024-06-20

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

PKG

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $10.21M

KOWLZAN MARK W

Chief Executive Officer

$2.01M

@ $217.08 · 2026-05-27

HASSFURTHER THOMAS A

President

$2.80M

@ $230.50 · 2026-02-05

KOWLZAN MARK W

Chief Executive Officer

$5.40M

@ $215.97 · 2025-09-11

VAUGHN JOSEPH

Officer

$563,253

@ $244.89 · 2024-12-03

STECKO PAUL T

Director

$2.57M

@ $244.91 · 2024-11-21

SHIRLEY DONALD R.

Officer

$1.92M

@ $240.20 · 2024-11-12

KOWLZAN MARK W

Chief Executive Officer

$16.00M

@ $240.03 · 2024-11-08

MUNDY ROBERT P

Chief Financial Officer

$3.01M

@ $240.62 · 2024-11-08

HASSFURTHER THOMAS A

Officer

$4.78M

@ $242.04 · 2024-11-07

CARTER CHARLES J

Officer

$1.06M

@ $196.28 · 2024-07-25

SHIRLEY DONALD R.

Officer

$1.18M

@ $196.28 · 2024-07-25

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😐Neutral(47/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

PKG

😐Neutral(58/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (47)

PKG

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (58)

View MA Full Analysis View PKG Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MA vs PKG

Is Mastercard Incorporated or Packaging Corporation of America more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, PKG trades at a 22.4% margin of safety (intrinsic value $295 vs. price $229), compared to MA's 14.2% margin of safety (intrinsic $571 vs. $490).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Mastercard Incorporated or Packaging Corporation of America?▼

MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while PKG scores 62/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Mastercard Incorporated or Packaging Corporation of America?▼

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) generates a 3.7% free cash flow yield, compared to Packaging Corporation of America's 3.6%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Mastercard Incorporated or Packaging Corporation of America?▼

MA earns 63.5% ROIC versus PKG's 10.9%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Mastercard Incorporated's or Packaging Corporation of America's?▼

MA's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to PKG's 63/100 (Safe). MA has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.