Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B) vs Packaging Corporation of America (PKG): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-11-01, BRK-B is fairly valued at $542, with a DCF intrinsic value of $590 and a margin of safety of 8%. PKG is undervalued at $257, with an intrinsic value of $617 and a margin of safety of 58%. Of the two, PKG has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.95 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Net debt/EBITDA of -1.8x means the company holds more cash than debt — a net cash position.
- ★Packaging Corporation of America has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Altman Z-Score of 3.79 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
Risks
- ⚠FCF yield of 6.2% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 10.06 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Gross margin of 21.2% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 31.7x is 59% above the historical average of 19.9x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $542?
The market implies +2.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +1.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.
Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: BRK-B vs PKG
Is Berkshire Hathaway Inc. or Packaging Corporation of America more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, PKG trades at a 58.4% margin of safety (intrinsic value $617 vs. price $257), compared to BRK-B's 8.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $590 vs. $542).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. or Packaging Corporation of America?▼
PKG scores 62/100 (Narrow moat), while BRK-B scores 40/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in financial distress?▼
BRK-B's Altman Z-Score of 2.5 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. PKG scores 3.8 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. or Packaging Corporation of America?▼
PKG earns 12.8% ROIC versus BRK-B's 11.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.