SafetyMargin.ioSafetyMargin.io
BlogWatchlistCompare
Compare Stocks › BAC vs PKG

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) vs Packaging Corporation of America (PKG): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-09-17, BAC is undervalued at $58, with a DCF intrinsic value of $142 and a margin of safety of 59%. PKG is undervalued at $231, with an intrinsic value of $473 and a margin of safety of 51%. Of the two, BAC has the wider margin of safety.

BAC
Bank of America Corporation
$57.90
VS
PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
$231.45

Rewards

BAC
  • ★Bank of America Corporation scores 100/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.90 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
PKG
  • ★Packaging Corporation of America has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 3.79 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

BAC
  • ⚠Gross margin of 0.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.22 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
PKG
  • ⚠Gross margin of 21.4% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 30.0x is 51% above the historical average of 19.9x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.

Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →
BAC
PKG
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$728.60M
N/A
FCF Yield
3.53%
13.37
Trailing P/E
30.02
10.94
Forward P/E
17.64
Quality & Moat
4.37%
ROIC
10.90%
11.20%
ROE
14.89%
0.00%
Gross Margin
21.39%
0.90
PEG Ratio
1.50
Balance Sheet Safety
N/A
Net Debt / Equity
0.82
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.91
2.21%
Dividend Yield
2.59%
BAC: 3Ties: 1PKG: 4
BACPKG

Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →
BAC

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

PKG

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →
BAC
$2.37
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$55.63B
Δ Market Cap
+$131.83B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
PKG
$6.95
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$997.1M
Δ Market Cap
+$6.93B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →
BAC
59.3% Margin of Safety
Price is 59.3% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $57.90
Fair Value: $142.10
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
PKG
51.1% Margin of Safety
Price is 51.1% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $231.45
Fair Value: $472.91
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →
BAC

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

PKG

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $231?

+13.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +14.7%

The market implies +13.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +14.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

Learn more →
BAC
100/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
PKG
62/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

Learn more →
BAC
-2.31
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
PKG
-2.67
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

Learn more →
BAC
Insiders 7.0%Institutions 71.3%Retail & Other 21.7%
No. of Institutional Holders4,542
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
PKG
Insiders 1.6%Institutions 100.1%
No. of Institutional Holders1,262
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →
BAC
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
PKG
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →
BAC
0
Sells (3M)
5
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $20.17M
MENSAH BERNARD AMPONSAH
Officer
$4.41M
@ $46.94 · 2026-03-12
BRONSTEIN SHERI B
Officer
$2.99M
@ $49.91 · 2026-03-05
SCRIVENER THOMAS M
Officer
$2.49M
@ $49.82 · 2026-03-05
ATHANASIA DEAN C
President
$6.86M
@ $50.21 · 2026-03-03
BORTHWICK ALASTAIR M.
Chief Financial Officer
$3.42M
@ $50.24 · 2026-02-27
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
PKG
3
Sells (3M)
5
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $15.00M
SHIRLEY DONALD R.
Officer
$3.01M
@ $250.71 · 2026-08-20
HASSFURTHER THOMAS A
President
$1.79M
@ $254.00 · 2026-08-07
HASSFURTHER THOMAS A
President
$5.39M
@ $252.89 · 2026-08-05
KOWLZAN MARK W
Chief Executive Officer
$2.01M
@ $217.08 · 2026-05-27
HASSFURTHER THOMAS A
President
$2.80M
@ $230.50 · 2026-02-05
KOWLZAN MARK W
Chief Executive Officer
$5.40M
@ $215.97 · 2025-09-11
VAUGHN JOSEPH
Officer
$563,253
@ $244.89 · 2024-12-03
STECKO PAUL T
Director
$2.57M
@ $244.91 · 2024-11-21
SHIRLEY DONALD R.
Officer
$1.92M
@ $240.20 · 2024-11-12
MUNDY ROBERT P
Chief Financial Officer
$3.01M
@ $240.62 · 2024-11-08
KOWLZAN MARK W
Chief Executive Officer
$16.00M
@ $240.03 · 2024-11-08
HASSFURTHER THOMAS A
Officer
$4.78M
@ $242.04 · 2024-11-07
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →
BAC
FearGreed
😐Neutral(52/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
PKG
FearGreed
😐Neutral(51/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →
BAC
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (52)
PKG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (51)
View BAC Full AnalysisView PKG Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: BAC vs PKG

Is Bank of America Corporation or Packaging Corporation of America more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, BAC trades at a 59.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $142 vs. price $58), compared to PKG's 51.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $473 vs. $231).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Bank of America Corporation or Packaging Corporation of America?▼

BAC scores 100/100 (Wide moat), while PKG scores 62/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Bank of America Corporation in financial distress?▼

BAC's Altman Z-Score of 0.2 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. PKG scores 3.8 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Bank of America Corporation or Packaging Corporation of America?▼

PKG earns 10.9% ROIC versus BAC's 4.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Bank of America Corporation's or Packaging Corporation of America's?▼

BAC's dividend earns a safety score of 79/100 (Safe), compared to PKG's 63/100 (Safe). BAC has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.