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Compare Stocks › GOOGL vs PKG

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) vs Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)

GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
$307.13
VS
PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
$204.39

Rewards

GOOGL
  • ★Alphabet Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Alphabet Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
PKG
  • ★Packaging Corporation of America has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $6.95 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 3.79 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

GOOGL
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.0% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
PKG
  • ⚠Gross margin of 21.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $2.8M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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GOOGL
PKG
Valuation
$73.27B
Free Cash Flow
$728.60M
1.97%
FCF Yield
3.96%
28.41
Trailing P/E
23.82
22.88
Forward P/E
16.62
Quality & Moat
20.83%
ROIC
10.74%
31.83%
ROE
16.72%
59.65%
Gross Margin
21.80%
0.91
PEG Ratio
N/A
Balance Sheet Safety
0.16
Debt / Equity
0.95
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
-0.40
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.98
0.27%
Dividend Yield
2.45%
GOOGL: 6Ties: 1PKG: 4
GOOGLPKG

Historical Fundamentals

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GOOGL

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

PKG

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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GOOGL
$9.18
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$288.67B
Δ Market Cap
+$2.65T
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
PKG
$6.95
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$997.1M
Δ Market Cap
+$6.93B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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GOOGL
20.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 20.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $307.13
Fair Value: $384.04
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
PKG
9.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 9.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $204.39
Fair Value: $224.53
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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GOOGL

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $307?

+12.1%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +20.2%

The market implies +12.1% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +20.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

PKG

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $204?

+12.6%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +13.4%

The market implies +12.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +13.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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GOOGL
89/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
PKG
62/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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GOOGL
-2.92
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
PKG
-2.67
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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GOOGL
Insiders 0.6%Institutions 80.8%Retail & Other 18.6%
No. of Institutional Holders7,206
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
PKG
Insiders 1.5%Institutions 99.9%
No. of Institutional Holders1,213
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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GOOGL
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
PKG
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
GOWLAND KAREN E
Director
$54,618
@ $182.06 · 2024-05-15
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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GOOGL
0
Sells (3M)
0
Sells (12M)
No open market insider sales found.
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
PKG
1
Sells (3M)
2
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $8.19M
HASSFURTHER THOMAS A
President
$2.80M
@ $230.50 · 2026-02-05
KOWLZAN MARK W
Chief Executive Officer
$5.40M
@ $215.97 · 2025-09-11
VAUGHN JOSEPH
Officer
$563,253
@ $244.89 · 2024-12-03
STECKO PAUL T
Director
$2.57M
@ $244.91 · 2024-11-21
SHIRLEY DONALD R.
Officer
$1.92M
@ $240.20 · 2024-11-12
KOWLZAN MARK W
Chief Executive Officer
$16.00M
@ $240.03 · 2024-11-08
MUNDY ROBERT P
Chief Financial Officer
$3.01M
@ $240.62 · 2024-11-08
HASSFURTHER THOMAS A
Officer
$4.78M
@ $242.04 · 2024-11-07
CARTER CHARLES J
Officer
$1.06M
@ $196.28 · 2024-07-25
SHIRLEY DONALD R.
Officer
$1.18M
@ $196.28 · 2024-07-25
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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GOOGL
FearGreed
😐Neutral(60/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
PKG
FearGreed
😨Fear(39/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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GOOGL
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (60)
PKG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (39)
View GOOGL Full AnalysisView PKG Full Analysis