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Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, PKG is undervalued at $257, with a DCF intrinsic value of $617 and a margin of safety of 58%. UNH is overvalued at $407, with an intrinsic value of $367 and a margin of safety of -11%. Of the two, PKG has the wider margin of safety.

PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
$256.82
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$406.97

Rewards

PKG
  • ★Packaging Corporation of America has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 3.79 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
UNH
  • ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

PKG
  • ⚠Gross margin of 21.2% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 31.7x is 59% above the historical average of 19.9x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
UNH
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 20.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 7.3% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

Key Valuation Metrics

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PKG
UNH
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$26.50B
N/A
FCF Yield
7.25%
31.67
Trailing P/E
23.23
18.04
Forward P/E
17.48
Quality & Moat
12.81%
ROIC
11.51%
16.49%
ROE
15.77%
21.24%
Gross Margin
20.05%
1.62
PEG Ratio
1.03
Balance Sheet Safety
0.82
Net Debt / Equity
0.43
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.92
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.58
2.34%
Dividend Yield
2.28%
PKG: 2Ties: 4UNH: 4
PKGUNH

Historical Fundamentals

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PKG

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UNH

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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PKG
$6.95
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$997.1M
Δ Market Cap
+$6.93B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNH
$-7.37
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$26.63B
Δ Market Cap
$-196.16B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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PKG
58.4% Margin of Safety
Price is 58.4% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $256.82
Fair Value: $617.13
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNH
10.8% Overvalued
Price is 10.8% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $406.97
Fair Value: $367.30
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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PKG

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

UNH

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $407?

+14.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +4.2%

The market implies +14.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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PKG
62/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
UNH
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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PKG
-2.67
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNH
-2.45
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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PKG
Insiders 1.6%Institutions 100.2%
No. of Institutional Holders1,277
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNH
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 89.6%Retail & Other 10.1%
No. of Institutional Holders4,333
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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PKG
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNH
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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PKG
3
Sells (3M)
5
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $15.00M
SHIRLEY DONALD R.
Officer
$3.01M
@ $250.71 · 2026-08-20
HASSFURTHER THOMAS A
President
$1.79M
@ $254.00 · 2026-08-07
HASSFURTHER THOMAS A
President
$5.39M
@ $252.89 · 2026-08-05
KOWLZAN MARK W
Chief Executive Officer
$2.01M
@ $217.08 · 2026-05-27
HASSFURTHER THOMAS A
President
$2.80M
@ $230.50 · 2026-02-05
KOWLZAN MARK W
Chief Executive Officer
$5.40M
@ $215.97 · 2025-09-11
VAUGHN JOSEPH
Officer
$563,253
@ $244.89 · 2024-12-03
STECKO PAUL T
Director
$2.57M
@ $244.91 · 2024-11-21
SHIRLEY DONALD R.
Officer
$1.92M
@ $240.20 · 2024-11-12
MUNDY ROBERT P
Chief Financial Officer
$3.01M
@ $240.62 · 2024-11-08
KOWLZAN MARK W
Chief Executive Officer
$16.00M
@ $240.03 · 2024-11-08
HASSFURTHER THOMAS A
Officer
$4.78M
@ $242.04 · 2024-11-07
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNH
2
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $944,910
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$455,910
@ $390.00 · 2026-08-21
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$205,000
@ $410.00 · 2026-08-05
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$284,000
@ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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PKG
FearGreed
😏Greed(73/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNH
FearGreed
😏Greed(62/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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PKG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (73)
UNH
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (62)
View PKG Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: PKG vs UNH

Is Packaging Corporation of America or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, PKG trades at a 58.4% margin of safety (intrinsic value $617 vs. price $257), compared to UNH's -10.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $367 vs. $407).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Packaging Corporation of America or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while PKG scores 62/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated in financial distress?▼

UNH's Altman Z-Score of 2.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. PKG scores 3.8 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Packaging Corporation of America or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

PKG earns 12.8% ROIC versus UNH's 11.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Packaging Corporation of America's or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼

UNH's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to PKG's 63/100 (Safe). UNH has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.