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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Intrinsic Value & Margin of Safety | SafetyMargin.io

Industrials › Trucking

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Stock Overview

Market Cap: $38.13B

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload motor carrier in the United States and North America. The company offers regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services, as well as expedited transportation services.

Mar 19, 2026$182.36

1Y +12.3%

Rewards

★Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. scores 74/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

⚠FCF yield of 2.1% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠Insiders have sold $3.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

ODFL Key Valuation Metrics

Free Cash Flow

$792.12M

FCF Yield

2.08%

Trailing P/E

37.76

Forward P/E

30.28

ROIC

22.70%

ROE

23.75%

Gross Margin

38.96%

PEG Ratio

N/A

Debt / Equity

0.03

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

0.01

Dividend Yield

0.64%

ODFL Historical Fundamentals

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

ODFL $1 Retained Earnings Test

Market Value

$0.51

created per $1 retained

Mediocre Allocator

Earning Power

$-1.40

created per $1 retained

Earning Power Declined

Σ Retained

$2.81B

Δ Market Cap

+$1.42B

Δ Earning Power

$-3.93B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 retained, how much value did management create?
Market Value = market's verdict (mood-sensitive) · Earning Power = owner earnings / discount rate (mood-independent)

ODFL Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

12.9% Margin of Safety

Price is 12.9% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $182.36

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $209.43

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Parameter	Min (Bear)Value	BaseValue	Max (Bull)Value
Initial Cash Flow
Growth Rate (Yr 1-5)	%	%	%
Growth Rate (Yr 6-10)	%	%	%
Terminal Growth Rate	%	%	%
Discount Rate	%	%	%
	Bear Case $119.87 Implied EV: $25.09B	Base Case $209.43 Implied EV: $43.81B	Bull Case $313.15 Implied EV: $65.50B

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $182?

+16.2%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +19.7%

The market implies +16.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +19.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

ODFL Economic Moat Score

74/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

ODFL Forensic Accounting

-2.68

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

ODFL Management & Board

Mr. David S. Congdon

Executive Chairman of the Board · Age 68

$2.67M

total pay

Mr. Kevin M. Freeman

President, CEO & Director · Age 66

$10.37M

total pay

Mr. Adam N. Satterfield CPA

Executive VP, Assistant Secretary & CFO · Age 50

$5.37M

total pay

Mr. Gregory B. Plemmons

Executive VP & COO · Age 59

$5.35M

total pay

Mr. Ross H. Parr

Senior VP of Legal Affairs, General Counsel & Secretary · Age 53

$3.37M

total pay

Mr. Cecil E. Overbey Jr.

Senior Vice President of Strategic Development · Age 63

$3.36M

total pay

Mr. Earl E. Congdon

Chairman Emeritus & Senior Advisor · Age 94

$3.80M

total pay

Mr. Clayton G. Brinker

VP of Accounting & Finance and Principal Accounting Officer · Age 39

Mr. Jack Lawrence Atkins

Director of Investor Relations

Sam Faucette

Vice President of Safety & Compliance

ODFL Ownership

Insiders 8.6%Institutions 83.8%Retail & Other 7.6%

No. of Institutional Holders1,282

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

ODFL Insider Buying Activity

0

Buys (3M)

0

Buys (12M)

SATTERFIELD ADAM N

Chief Financial Officer

$432,260

@ $175.93 · 2025-02-28

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

ODFL Insider Selling Activity

2

Sells (3M)

2

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $2.97M

GABOSCH BRADLEY R

Director

$608,842

@ $194.27 · 2026-02-18

GANTT GREG C

Director

$2.36M

@ $196.43 · 2026-02-09

GANTT GREG C

Director

$1.32M

@ $205.87 · 2025-02-13

SUGGS LEO H

Director

$676,320

@ $225.44 · 2024-11-08

GANTT GREG C

Director

$1.40M

@ $200.07 · 2024-10-28

STITH THOMAS A III

Director

$113,052

@ $205.55 · 2024-07-30

GANTT GREG C

Director

$5.05M

@ $202.02 · 2024-07-29

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

ODFL 🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

😐Neutral(41/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

ODFL ⚖️ Buffett Signal

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (41)

ODFL Investment Checklist & Notes

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:31:54 AM

ODFL Insider Buying Activity

0

Buys (3M)

0

Buys (12M)

SATTERFIELD ADAM N

Chief Financial Officer

$432,260

@ $175.93 · 2025-02-28

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

ODFL Insider Selling Activity

2

Sells (3M)

2

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $2.97M

GABOSCH BRADLEY R

Director

$608,842

@ $194.27 · 2026-02-18

GANTT GREG C

Director

$2.36M

@ $196.43 · 2026-02-09

GANTT GREG C

Director

$1.32M

@ $205.87 · 2025-02-13

SUGGS LEO H

Director

$676,320

@ $225.44 · 2024-11-08

GANTT GREG C

Director

$1.40M

@ $200.07 · 2024-10-28

STITH THOMAS A III

Director

$113,052

@ $205.55 · 2024-07-30

GANTT GREG C

Director

$5.05M

@ $202.02 · 2024-07-29

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

ODFL Investment Checklist & Notes

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:31:54 AM