Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) vs Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-11-01, ODFL is overvalued at $173, with a DCF intrinsic value of $150 and a margin of safety of -15%. PFE is overvalued at $31, with an intrinsic value of $22 and a margin of safety of -36%. Of the two, ODFL has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. scores 74/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Gross margin of 74.7% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Insiders have bought $3.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant skin in the game.
Risks
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.07 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $4.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 15.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠FCF yield of 7.2% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 40.2x is 32% above the historical average of 30.4x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $31?
The market implies +7.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +6.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: ODFL vs PFE
Is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. or Pfizer Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, ODFL trades at a -15.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $150 vs. price $173), compared to PFE's -36.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $22 vs. $31).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. or Pfizer Inc.?▼
ODFL scores 74/100 (Wide moat), while PFE scores 35/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Pfizer Inc. in financial distress?▼
PFE's Altman Z-Score of 2.1 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. ODFL scores 19.8 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. or Pfizer Inc.?▼
ODFL earns 27.7% ROIC versus PFE's 9.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s or Pfizer Inc.'s?▼
ODFL's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to PFE's 24/100 (Unsafe). ODFL has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.