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Compare Stocks › ODFL vs UNH

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
$205.81
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$368.78

Rewards

ODFL
  • ★Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. scores 74/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
UNH
  • ★Dividend yield of 2.40% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.

Risks

ODFL
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 42.9x is 39% above the historical average of 30.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.79 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $3.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
UNH
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 7.9 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 18.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 5.3% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

Key Valuation Metrics

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ODFL
UNH
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$17.69B
N/A
FCF Yield
5.28%
42.88
Trailing P/E
27.85
33.22
Forward P/E
17.77
Quality & Moat
23.08%
ROIC
15.60%
23.27%
ROE
11.45%
38.95%
Gross Margin
18.80%
2.79
PEG Ratio
39.79
Balance Sheet Safety
0.01
Debt / Equity
0.74
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
-0.15
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.18
0.56%
Dividend Yield
2.40%
ODFL: 6Ties: 1UNH: 3
ODFLUNH

Historical Fundamentals

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ODFL

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

UNH

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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ODFL
$0.51
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Mediocre Allocator
Σ Retained
$2.81B
Δ Market Cap
+$1.42B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNH
$-7.37
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$26.63B
Δ Market Cap
$-196.16B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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ODFL
26.5% Overvalued
Price is 26.5% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $205.81
Fair Value: $162.65
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNH
9.6% Overvalued
Price is 9.6% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $368.78
Fair Value: $336.33
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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ODFL

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

UNH

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $369?

+13.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +8.7%

The market implies +13.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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ODFL
74/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
UNH
64/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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ODFL
-2.68
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNH
-2.45
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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ODFL
Insiders 8.2%Institutions 83.7%Retail & Other 8.1%
No. of Institutional Holders1,299
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNH
Insiders 0.8%Institutions 84.7%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders4,077
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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ODFL
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
SATTERFIELD ADAM N
Chief Financial Officer
$432,260
@ $175.93 · 2025-02-28
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNH
0
Buys (3M)
5
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $31.61M
HEMSLEY STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$25.02M
@ $288.57 · 2025-05-16
REX JOHN F
President
$5.00M
@ $291.12 · 2025-05-16
GIL KRISTEN
Director
$1.00M
@ $271.17 · 2025-05-15
NOSEWORTHY JOHN H
Director
$93,647
@ $312.16 · 2025-05-14
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
Director
$491,786
@ $320.80 · 2025-05-14
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
Director
$511,575
@ $511.57 · 2025-01-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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ODFL
2
Sells (3M)
2
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $2.97M
GABOSCH BRADLEY R
Director
$608,842
@ $194.27 · 2026-02-18
GANTT GREG C
Director
$2.36M
@ $196.43 · 2026-02-09
GANTT GREG C
Director
$1.32M
@ $205.87 · 2025-02-13
SUGGS LEO H
Director
$676,320
@ $225.44 · 2024-11-08
GANTT GREG C
Director
$1.40M
@ $200.07 · 2024-10-28
STITH THOMAS A III
Director
$113,052
@ $205.55 · 2024-07-30
GANTT GREG C
Director
$5.05M
@ $202.02 · 2024-07-29
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNH
1
Sells (3M)
2
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $463,645
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.
Officer
$284,000
@ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.
Chief Executive Officer
$179,645
@ $305.00 · 2025-06-10
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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ODFL
FearGreed
😐Neutral(53/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNH
FearGreed
😏Greed(65/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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ODFL
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (53)
UNH
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (65)
View ODFL Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis