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MGM Resorts International (MGM) Intrinsic Value & Margin of Safety | SafetyMargin.io

Consumer Cyclical › Resorts & Casinos

MGM Resorts International (MGM) Stock Overview

Market Cap: $10.16B

MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital.

Mar 19, 2026$37.14

1Y +13.6%

Rewards

★Free cash flow has grown at a 13.8% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
★FCF yield of 14.4% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
★PEG ratio of 0.42 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.

Risks

⚠Trailing P/E of 48.9x is 248% above the historical average of 14.0x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
⚠High leverage (9.63x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 12.4x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.

MGM Key Valuation Metrics

Free Cash Flow

$1.46B

FCF Yield

14.38%

Trailing P/E

48.87

Forward P/E

15.83

ROIC

2.81%

ROE

6.28%

Gross Margin

44.42%

PEG Ratio

0.42

Debt / Equity

9.63

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

12.44

Dividend Yield

N/A

MGM Historical Fundamentals

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

MGM $1 Retained Earnings Test

Market Value

$-1.57

created per $1 retained

Market Cap Declined

Earning Power

$-6.72

created per $1 retained

Earning Power Declined

Σ Retained

$2.09B

Δ Market Cap

$-3.28B

Δ Earning Power

$-14.08B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 retained, how much value did management create?
Market Value = market's verdict (mood-sensitive) · Earning Power = owner earnings / discount rate (mood-independent)

MGM Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Insufficient Data

Enter initial FCF to calculate intrinsic value

Current Price: $37.14

Strongly undervalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $0.00

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Parameter	Min (Bear)Value	BaseValue	Max (Bull)Value
Initial Cash Flow
Growth Rate (Yr 1-5)	%	%	%
Growth Rate (Yr 6-10)	%	%	%
Terminal Growth Rate	%	%	%
Discount Rate	%	%	%
	Bear Case $0.00 Implied EV: $5.57B	Base Case $0.00 Implied EV: $10.39B	Bull Case $0.00 Implied EV: $16.26B

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $37?

+39.4%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +11.8%

The market implies +39.4% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +11.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

MGM Economic Moat Score

36/100

No Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

MGM Forensic Accounting

-2.72

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

MGM Management & Board

Mr. William Joseph Hornbuckle IV

President, CEO & Director · Age 67

$5.82M

total pay

Mr. Jonathan S. Halkyard

CFO & Treasurer · Age 60

$2.63M

total pay

Mr. John M. McManus Esq.

Chief Legal & Administrative Officer and Secretary · Age 58

$1.96M

total pay

Mr. Corey Ian Sanders

Advisor to President & CEO · Age 61

$3.28M

total pay

Mr. Gary M. Fritz

Chief Commercial Officer & President of MGM Digital · Age 51

$3.37M

total pay

Ms. Ayesha Khanna Molino

Chief Operating Officer · Age 44

Mr. Todd R. Meinert

Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer · Age 51

Mr. Howard H. Wang CPA

Vice President of Investor Relations

Mr. Jeff Mochal

Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications

Ms. Jennifer D. Michaels

Senior Vice President of Public Relations · Age 56

MGM Ownership

Insiders 27.0%Institutions 73.4%

No. of Institutional Holders815

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

MGM Insider Buying Activity

0

Buys (3M)

1

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $39.88M

IAC INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$39.88M

@ $36.30 · 2025-12-05

HALKYARD JONATHAN S

Chief Financial Officer

$321,700

@ $32.17 · 2025-03-06

SALEM PAUL J

Director

$4.99M

@ $33.80 · 2024-08-05

HALKYARD JONATHAN S

Chief Financial Officer

$340,000

@ $34.00 · 2024-08-05

HORNBUCKLE WILLIAM J IV

Chief Executive Officer

$1.99M

@ $33.73 · 2024-08-05

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

MGM Insider Selling Activity

0

Sells (3M)

1

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $2.17M

MCMANUS JOHN M

Officer

$2.17M

@ $36.12 · 2025-09-15

MEINERT TODD

Officer

$227,041

@ $37.84 · 2025-02-19

JAMMET MARY CHRIS

Director

$178,582

@ $41.11 · 2024-05-20

HERMAN ALEXIS M

Director

$180,276

@ $41.50 · 2024-05-17

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

MGM 🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

😐Neutral(48/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

MGM ⚖️ Buffett Signal

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (48)

MGM Investment Checklist & Notes

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:31:45 AM

MGM Insider Buying Activity

0

Buys (3M)

1

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $39.88M

IAC INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$39.88M

@ $36.30 · 2025-12-05

HALKYARD JONATHAN S

Chief Financial Officer

$321,700

@ $32.17 · 2025-03-06

SALEM PAUL J

Director

$4.99M

@ $33.80 · 2024-08-05

HALKYARD JONATHAN S

Chief Financial Officer

$340,000

@ $34.00 · 2024-08-05

HORNBUCKLE WILLIAM J IV

Chief Executive Officer

$1.99M

@ $33.73 · 2024-08-05

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

MGM Insider Selling Activity

0

Sells (3M)

1

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $2.17M

MCMANUS JOHN M

Officer

$2.17M

@ $36.12 · 2025-09-15

MEINERT TODD

Officer

$227,041

@ $37.84 · 2025-02-19

JAMMET MARY CHRIS

Director

$178,582

@ $41.11 · 2024-05-20

HERMAN ALEXIS M

Director

$180,276

@ $41.50 · 2024-05-17

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

MGM Investment Checklist & Notes

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:31:45 AM