ConocoPhillips (COP) vs ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, COP is overvalued at $133, with a DCF intrinsic value of $116 and a margin of safety of -15%. XOM is overvalued at $163, with an intrinsic value of $112 and a margin of safety of -46%. Of the two, COP has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Altman Z-Score of 4.16 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 17.6x is 46% above the historical average of 12.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 12.0 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 21.0x is 64% above the historical average of 12.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $133?
The market implies +9.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $163?
Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →No durable moat detected, though roic consistency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: COP vs XOM
Is ConocoPhillips or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, COP trades at a -15.1% margin of safety (intrinsic value $116 vs. price $133), compared to XOM's -46.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $112 vs. $163).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, ConocoPhillips or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation?▼
XOM scores 48/100 (Narrow moat), while COP scores 38/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is ConocoPhillips in financial distress?▼
COP's Altman Z-Score of 2.8 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. XOM scores 4.2 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, ConocoPhillips or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation?▼
ConocoPhillips (COP) generates a 4.8% free cash flow yield, compared to ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's 3.1%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, ConocoPhillips or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation?▼
COP earns 18.1% ROIC versus XOM's 14.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, ConocoPhillips's or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's?▼
COP's dividend earns a safety score of 78/100 (Safe), compared to XOM's 69/100 (Safe). COP has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.