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Energy › Oil & Gas Integrated

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Overview

Market Cap: $659.02B

Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments.

Mar 19, 2026$158.16

1Y +37.0%

Rewards

★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $1.06 of market value — management is creating shareholder value.
★Altman Z-Score of 4.16 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

⚠ROIC has declined by 12.6 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
⚠Trailing P/E of 23.6x is 84% above the historical average of 12.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 26.1% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

XOM Key Valuation Metrics

Free Cash Flow

$23.61B

FCF Yield

3.58%

Trailing P/E

23.57

Forward P/E

18.28

ROIC

7.69%

ROE

10.82%

Gross Margin

31.05%

PEG Ratio

N/A

Debt / Equity

0.19

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

0.67

Dividend Yield

2.60%

XOM Historical Fundamentals

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

XOM $1 Retained Earnings Test

Market Value

$1.06

created per $1 retained

Value Creator

Earning Power

$-7.78

created per $1 retained

Earning Power Declined

Σ Retained

$49.66B

Δ Market Cap

+$52.66B

Δ Earning Power

$-386.42B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 retained, how much value did management create?
Market Value = market's verdict (mood-sensitive) · Earning Power = fcf / discount rate (mood-independent)

XOM Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

2.5% Margin of Safety

Price is 2.5% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $158.16

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $162.15

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Parameter	Min (Bear)Value	BaseValue	Max (Bull)Value
Initial Cash Flow
Growth Rate (Yr 1-5)	%	%	%
Growth Rate (Yr 6-10)	%	%	%
Terminal Growth Rate	%	%	%
Discount Rate	%	%	%
	Bear Case $103.30 Implied EV: $470.23B	Base Case $162.15 Implied EV: $715.45B	Bull Case $222.98 Implied EV: $968.89B

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $158?

+13.0%

Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.

XOM Economic Moat Score

48/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

XOM Forensic Accounting

-2.74

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

XOM Management & Board

Mr. Darren W. Woods

Chairman of the Board, President & CEO · Age 60

$6.91M

total pay

Mr. Neil A. Chapman

Senior Vice President · Age 63

$4.55M

total pay

Mr. Jack P. Williams Jr.

Senior Vice President · Age 61

$4.63M

total pay

Mr. Neil A. Hansen

Senior VP & CFO · Age 50

Mr. Jon M. Gibbs

Senior President of ExxonMobil Global Operations · Age 52

Mr. Leonard M. Fox

VP of Tax, Principal Accounting Officer & Controller · Age 61

Mr. James R. Chapman

VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer · Age 54

Mr. Jeffrey A. Taylor

VP, General Counsel & Secretary · Age 60

Inge A. Van Coppenolle

Vice President of Human Resources

Ms. Tracey C. Gunnlaugsson

President of Global Trading

XOM Ownership

Insiders 0.1%Institutions 67.5%Retail & Other 32.4%

No. of Institutional Holders5,390

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

XOM Insider Buying Activity

0

Buys (3M)

0

Buys (12M)

DREYFUS MARIA S

Director

$2.00M

@ $109.25 · 2024-06-17

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

XOM Insider Selling Activity

0

Sells (3M)

0

Sells (12M)

No open market insider sales found.

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

XOM 🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

😏Greed(69/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

XOM ⚖️ Buffett Signal

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (69)

XOM Investment Checklist & Notes

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:31:53 AM

XOM Insider Buying Activity

0

Buys (3M)

0

Buys (12M)

DREYFUS MARIA S

Director

$2.00M

@ $109.25 · 2024-06-17

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

XOM Insider Selling Activity

0

Sells (3M)

0

Sells (12M)

No open market insider sales found.

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

XOM Investment Checklist & Notes

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:31:53 AM

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Intrinsic Value & Margin of Safety | SafetyMargin.io