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Compare Stocks › DE vs XOM

Deere & Company (DE) vs ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-09-17, DE is undervalued at $669, with a DCF intrinsic value of $895 and a margin of safety of 25%. XOM is overvalued at $163, with an intrinsic value of $112 and a margin of safety of -46%. Of the two, DE has the wider margin of safety.

DE
Deere & Company
$669.47
VS
XOM
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation
$163.32

Rewards

DE
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 52.5% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
XOM
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 4.16 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

DE
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.5% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 38.0x is 113% above the historical average of 17.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠High leverage (2.06x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
XOM
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 12.0 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 21.8x is 70% above the historical average of 12.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.

Key Valuation Metrics

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DE
XOM
Valuation
$4.52B
Free Cash Flow
$20.67B
2.50%
FCF Yield
3.08%
38.02
Trailing P/E
21.78
29.48
Forward P/E
15.14
Quality & Moat
5.47%
ROIC
14.66%
18.24%
ROE
12.58%
25.18%
Gross Margin
29.77%
1.58
PEG Ratio
1.41
Balance Sheet Safety
2.06
Net Debt / Equity
0.12
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
6.70
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.47
0.97%
Dividend Yield
2.52%
DE: 1Ties: 1XOM: 10
DEXOM

Historical Fundamentals

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DE

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

XOM

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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DE
$-0.13
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$17.54B
Δ Market Cap
$-2.23B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
XOM
$1.06
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Creator
Σ Retained
$49.66B
Δ Market Cap
+$52.66B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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DE
25.2% Margin of Safety
Price is 25.2% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $669.47
Fair Value: $895.30
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
XOM
46.2% Overvalued
Price is 46.2% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $163.32
Fair Value: $111.72
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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DE

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $669?

+19.5%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +20.9%

The market implies +19.5% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +20.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

XOM

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $163?

+14.9%
Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.

Economic Moat Score

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DE
50/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
XOM
48/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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DE
-2.52
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
XOM
-2.74
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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DE
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 84.5%Retail & Other 15.4%
No. of Institutional Holders3,372
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
XOM
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 67.1%Retail & Other 32.9%
No. of Institutional Holders5,204
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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DE
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
XOM
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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DE
3
Sells (3M)
6
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $55.91M
CAMPBELL RYAN DAVID
Officer
$3.16M
@ $651.19 · 2026-08-31
CAMPBELL RYAN DAVID
Officer
$5.12M
@ $653.77 · 2026-08-24
CAMPBELL RYAN DAVID
Officer
$15.15M
@ $651.18 · 2026-08-21
REED CORY J.
Officer
$6.12M
@ $510.00 · 2026-01-14
MAY JOHN C. II
Chief Executive Officer
$20.80M
@ $501.49 · 2026-01-08
MAY JOHN C. II
Chief Executive Officer
$5.55M
@ $500.08 · 2025-11-25
KALATHUR RAJESH
Chief Technology Officer
$12.30M
@ $500.61 · 2025-02-18
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
XOM
0
Sells (3M)
0
Sells (12M)
No open market insider sales found.
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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DE
FearGreed
😏Greed(65/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
XOM
FearGreed
😏Greed(63/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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DE
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (65)
XOM
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (63)
View DE Full AnalysisView XOM Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: DE vs XOM

Is Deere & Company or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, DE trades at a 25.2% margin of safety (intrinsic value $895 vs. price $669), compared to XOM's -46.2% margin of safety (intrinsic $112 vs. $163).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Deere & Company or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation?▼

DE scores 50/100 (Narrow moat), while XOM scores 48/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Deere & Company in financial distress?▼

DE's Altman Z-Score of 2.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. XOM scores 4.2 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Deere & Company or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation?▼

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) generates a 3.1% free cash flow yield, compared to Deere & Company's 2.5%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Deere & Company or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation?▼

XOM earns 14.7% ROIC versus DE's 5.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Deere & Company's or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's?▼

DE's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to XOM's 69/100 (Safe). DE has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.