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Deere & Company (DE) Intrinsic Value & Margin of Safety | SafetyMargin.io

Industrials › Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Deere & Company (DE) Stock Overview

Market Cap: $153.31B

Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services.

Mar 19, 2026$567.58

1Y +18.4%

Rewards

★Free cash flow has grown at a 52.5% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
★Dividend yield of 1.14% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.

Risks

⚠FCF yield of 2.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠Trailing P/E of 32.0x is 80% above the historical average of 17.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
⚠High leverage (2.40x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.

DE Key Valuation Metrics

Free Cash Flow

$4.20B

FCF Yield

2.74%

Trailing P/E

32.05

Forward P/E

24.54

ROIC

3.82%

ROE

19.07%

Gross Margin

26.25%

PEG Ratio

N/A

Debt / Equity

2.40

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

6.74

Dividend Yield

1.14%

DE Historical Fundamentals

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

DE $1 Retained Earnings Test

Market Value

$-0.13

created per $1 retained

Market Cap Declined

Earning Power

$-1.33

created per $1 retained

Earning Power Declined

Σ Retained

$17.54B

Δ Market Cap

$-2.23B

Δ Earning Power

$-23.38B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 retained, how much value did management create?
Market Value = market's verdict (mood-sensitive) · Earning Power = owner earnings / discount rate (mood-independent)

DE Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

46.2% Margin of Safety

Price is 46.2% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $567.58

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $1054.97

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Parameter	Min (Bear)Value	BaseValue	Max (Bull)Value
Initial Cash Flow
Growth Rate (Yr 1-5)	%	%	%
Growth Rate (Yr 6-10)	%	%	%
Terminal Growth Rate	%	%	%
Discount Rate	%	%	%
	Bear Case $392.06 Implied EV: $163.80B	Base Case $1054.97 Implied EV: $342.86B	Bull Case $1936.88 Implied EV: $581.07B

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $568?

+17.8%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +20.3%

The market implies +17.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +20.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

DE Economic Moat Score

50/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

DE Forensic Accounting

-2.52

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

DE Management & Board

Mr. John C. May II

Chairman, President & CEO · Age 56

$8.28M

total pay

Mr. Ryan D. Campbell

Acting CFO & President of Worldwide Construction, Forestry & Power Systems · Age 50

$2.87M

total pay

Ms. Deanna M. Kovar

President of Worldwide Ag & Turf Div, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia · Age 46

$2.93M

total pay

Mr. Jahmy J. Hindman

Senior VP & CTO · Age 49

Josh Beal

Director of Investor Relations

Ms. Renee A. Mailhot

VP & Chief Compliance Officer

Ms. Kellye L. Walker J.D.

Senior VP, Chief Legal Officer, Global Law Services & Regulatory Affairs and Corporate Secretary · Age 58

Ms. Felecia J. Pryor J.D.

Senior VP & Chief People Officer · Age 50

Dr. J. B. Penn

Chief Economist

Mr. Andrew C. Traeger

Chief Risk Officer & Senior VP of International Business at John Deere Financial

DE Ownership

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 83.1%Retail & Other 16.7%

No. of Institutional Holders3,146

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

DE Insider Buying Activity

0

Buys (3M)

0

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

DE Insider Selling Activity

2

Sells (3M)

3

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $32.47M

REED CORY J.

Officer

$6.12M

@ $510.00 · 2026-01-14

MAY JOHN C. II

Chief Executive Officer

$20.80M

@ $501.49 · 2026-01-08

MAY JOHN C. II

Chief Executive Officer

$5.55M

@ $500.08 · 2025-11-25

KALATHUR RAJESH

Chief Technology Officer

$12.30M

@ $500.61 · 2025-02-18

REED CORY J.

Officer

$5.05M

@ $377.63 · 2024-06-24

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

DE 🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

😐Neutral(44/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

DE ⚖️ Buffett Signal

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (44)

DE Investment Checklist & Notes

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:30:23 AM

DE Insider Buying Activity

0

Buys (3M)

0

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

DE Insider Selling Activity

2

Sells (3M)

3

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $32.47M

REED CORY J.

Officer

$6.12M

@ $510.00 · 2026-01-14

MAY JOHN C. II

Chief Executive Officer

$20.80M

@ $501.49 · 2026-01-08

MAY JOHN C. II

Chief Executive Officer

$5.55M

@ $500.08 · 2025-11-25

KALATHUR RAJESH

Chief Technology Officer

$12.30M

@ $500.61 · 2025-02-18

REED CORY J.

Officer

$5.05M

@ $377.63 · 2024-06-24

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

DE Investment Checklist & Notes

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:30:23 AM