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ConocoPhillips (COP) vs Deere & Company (DE): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, COP is fairly valued at $108, with a DCF intrinsic value of $113 and a margin of safety of 5%. DE is undervalued at $589, with an intrinsic value of $1030 and a margin of safety of 43%. Of the two, DE has the wider margin of safety.

COP
ConocoPhillips
$107.74
VS
DE
Deere & Company
$589.24

Rewards

COP
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.94 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
DE
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 52.5% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.

Risks

COP
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 5.5% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
DE
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.0% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 33.3x is 87% above the historical average of 17.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠High leverage (3.08x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.

Key Valuation Metrics

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COP
DE
Valuation
$7.24B
Free Cash Flow
$3.23B
5.52%
FCF Yield
2.03%
18.26
Trailing P/E
33.33
11.72
Forward P/E
25.78
Quality & Moat
11.77%
ROIC
10.65%
11.28%
ROE
18.35%
45.59%
Gross Margin
25.96%
0.94
PEG Ratio
1.78
Balance Sheet Safety
0.26
Net Debt / Equity
3.08
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.73
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.60
3.02%
Dividend Yield
1.11%
COP: 10Ties: 1DE: 1
COPDE

Historical Fundamentals

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COP

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

DE

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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COP
$-1.99
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$14.97B
Δ Market Cap
$-29.73B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
DE
$-0.13
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$17.54B
Δ Market Cap
$-2.23B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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COP
24.6% Overvalued
Price is 24.6% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $107.74
Fair Value: $86.45
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
DE
42.8% Margin of Safety
Price is 42.8% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $589.24
Fair Value: $1029.59
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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COP

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $108?

+6.7%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +8.0%

The market implies +6.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

DE

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $589?

+17.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +23.1%

The market implies +17.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +23.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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COP
38/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though roic consistency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
DE
50/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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COP
-2.89
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
DE
-2.52
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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COP
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 87.6%Retail & Other 12.3%
No. of Institutional Holders3,171
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
DE
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 82.8%Retail & Other 17.0%
No. of Institutional Holders3,298
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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COP
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $500,000
MCRAVEN WILLIAM H.
Director
$500,000
@ $86.69 · 2025-11-10
JOHNSON KIRK L
Officer
$499,472
@ $94.24 · 2025-06-16
MURTI ARJUN N
Director
$239,675
@ $95.87 · 2024-12-20
WALKER R A
Director
$1.02M
@ $97.80 · 2024-12-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
DE
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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COP
3
Sells (3M)
12
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $127.52M
MULLIGAN SHARMILA
Director
$234,906
@ $119.00 · 2026-06-10
ROSE KELLY BRUNETTI
General Counsel
$1.00M
@ $130.03 · 2026-03-24
OLDS NICHOLAS G
Officer
$888,651
@ $127.06 · 2026-03-23
LANCE RYAN MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$64.49M
@ $127.26 · 2026-03-20
HRAP HEATHER G.
Officer
$317,631
@ $119.68 · 2026-03-13
LUNDQUIST ANDREW D
Officer
$4.13M
@ $119.68 · 2026-03-13
OLDS NICHOLAS G
Officer
$1.73M
@ $119.36 · 2026-03-12
HAYNES-WELSH KONTESSA S.
Officer
$1.24M
@ $120.07 · 2026-03-12
OLDS NICHOLAS G
Officer
$1.41M
@ $116.37 · 2026-03-11
ROSE KELLY BRUNETTI
General Counsel
$1.00M
@ $118.04 · 2026-03-09
LEACH TIMOTHY ALLEN
Director
$4.75M
@ $118.79 · 2026-03-06
LANCE RYAN MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$46.32M
@ $92.50 · 2025-12-19
LEACH TIMOTHY ALLEN
Director
$6.00M
@ $108.11 · 2024-08-13
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
DE
0
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $32.47M
REED CORY J.
Officer
$6.12M
@ $510.00 · 2026-01-14
MAY JOHN C. II
Chief Executive Officer
$20.80M
@ $501.49 · 2026-01-08
MAY JOHN C. II
Chief Executive Officer
$5.55M
@ $500.08 · 2025-11-25
KALATHUR RAJESH
Chief Technology Officer
$12.30M
@ $500.61 · 2025-02-18
REED CORY J.
Officer
$5.05M
@ $377.63 · 2024-06-24
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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COP
FearGreed
😐Neutral(46/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
DE
FearGreed
😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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COP
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (46)
DE
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
View COP Full AnalysisView DE Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: COP vs DE

Is ConocoPhillips or Deere & Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, DE trades at a 42.8% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1030 vs. price $589), compared to COP's 4.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $113 vs. $108).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, ConocoPhillips or Deere & Company?▼

DE scores 50/100 (Narrow moat), while COP scores 38/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is ConocoPhillips in financial distress?▼

COP's Altman Z-Score of 2.8 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. DE scores 2.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, ConocoPhillips or Deere & Company?▼

ConocoPhillips (COP) generates a 5.5% free cash flow yield, compared to Deere & Company's 2.0%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, ConocoPhillips or Deere & Company?▼

COP earns 11.8% ROIC versus DE's 10.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, ConocoPhillips's or Deere & Company's?▼

DE's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to COP's 78/100 (Safe). DE has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

COP vs DE: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io