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AT&T Inc. (T) vs Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

T
AT&T Inc.
$27.74
VS
XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation
$158.16

Rewards

T
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 16.2% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $1.91 of market value — management is creating shareholder value.
  • ★FCF yield of 9.9% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
XOM
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $1.06 of market value — management is creating shareholder value.
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 4.16 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

T
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.89 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
XOM
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 12.6 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 23.6x is 84% above the historical average of 12.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 26.1% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

Key Valuation Metrics

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T
XOM
Valuation
$19.44B
Free Cash Flow
$23.61B
9.89%
FCF Yield
3.58%
9.13
Trailing P/E
23.57
10.89
Forward P/E
18.28
Quality & Moat
6.35%
ROIC
7.69%
17.04%
ROE
10.82%
59.55%
Gross Margin
31.05%
N/A
PEG Ratio
N/A
Balance Sheet Safety
1.24
Debt / Equity
0.19
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
3.19
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.67
4.00%
Dividend Yield
2.60%
T: 6Ties: 1XOM: 4
TXOM

Historical Fundamentals

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T

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

XOM

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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T
$1.91
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.78B
Δ Market Cap
+$43.59B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
XOM
$1.06
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Creator
Σ Retained
$49.66B
Δ Market Cap
+$52.66B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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T
53.1% Margin of Safety
Price is 53.1% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $27.74
Fair Value: $59.14
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
XOM
2.5% Margin of Safety
Price is 2.5% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $158.16
Fair Value: $162.15
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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T

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $28?

+4.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +5.8%

The market implies +4.2% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +5.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

XOM

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $158?

+13.0%
Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.

Economic Moat Score

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T
57/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
XOM
48/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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T
-2.78
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
XOM
-2.74
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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T
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 67.8%Retail & Other 32.1%
No. of Institutional Holders3,554
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
XOM
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 67.5%Retail & Other 32.4%
No. of Institutional Holders5,390
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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T
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
XOM
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
DREYFUS MARIA S
Director
$2.00M
@ $109.25 · 2024-06-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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T
0
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $41,348
SABRINA SANDERS S
Officer
$41,348
@ $27.57 · 2025-05-28
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
XOM
0
Sells (3M)
0
Sells (12M)
No open market insider sales found.
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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T
FearGreed
😐Neutral(59/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
XOM
FearGreed
😏Greed(69/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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T
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)
XOM
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (69)
View T Full AnalysisView XOM Full Analysis
AT&T Inc. (T) vs Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Comparison | SafetyMargin.io