Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) vs ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-08-03, UNP is overvalued at $292, with a DCF intrinsic value of $215 and a margin of safety of -36%. XOM is undervalued at $155, with an intrinsic value of $459379071521 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, XOM has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Union Pacific Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Union Pacific Corporation scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
Risks
- ⚠Each dollar of retained earnings has produced only $0.15 of earning power — shareholders may have been better served by dividends.
- ⚠FCF yield of 2.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 3.23 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 12.0 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 26.2x is 104% above the historical average of 12.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $292?
The market implies +12.5% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +18.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $155?
Market below historical growth — potential opportunity.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by margin stability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: UNP vs XOM
Is Union Pacific Corporation or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, XOM trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $459379071521 vs. price $155), compared to UNP's -35.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $215 vs. $292).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Union Pacific Corporation or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation?▼
UNP scores 80/100 (Wide moat), while XOM scores 48/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation in financial distress?▼
XOM's Altman Z-Score of 2.5 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNP scores 3.8 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Union Pacific Corporation or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation?▼
UNP earns 15.9% ROIC versus XOM's 14.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Union Pacific Corporation's or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's?▼
UNP's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to XOM's 69/100 (Safe). UNP has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.