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Compare Stocks › DE vs UNP

Deere & Company (DE) vs Union Pacific Corporation (UNP): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, DE is undervalued at $589, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1030 and a margin of safety of 43%. UNP is overvalued at $257, with an intrinsic value of $224 and a margin of safety of -14%. Of the two, DE has the wider margin of safety.

DE
Deere & Company
$589.24
VS
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
$256.88

Rewards

DE
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 52.5% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
UNP
  • ★Union Pacific Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Union Pacific Corporation scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

DE
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.0% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 33.3x is 87% above the historical average of 17.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠High leverage (3.08x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
UNP
  • ⚠Each dollar of retained earnings has produced only $0.15 of earning power — shareholders may have been better served by dividends.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 3.27 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠High leverage (1.57x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.

Key Valuation Metrics

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DE
UNP
Valuation
$3.23B
Free Cash Flow
$5.50B
2.03%
FCF Yield
3.61%
33.33
Trailing P/E
21.16
25.78
Forward P/E
18.75
Quality & Moat
10.65%
ROIC
15.46%
18.35%
ROE
40.69%
25.96%
Gross Margin
56.53%
1.78
PEG Ratio
3.27
Balance Sheet Safety
3.08
Net Debt / Equity
1.57
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
4.60
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.42
1.11%
Dividend Yield
2.12%
DE: 1Ties: 1UNP: 10
DEUNP

Historical Fundamentals

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DE

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UNP

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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DE
$-0.13
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$17.54B
Δ Market Cap
$-2.23B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNP
$0.98
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Mediocre Allocator
Σ Retained
$10.64B
Δ Market Cap
+$10.42B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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DE
42.8% Margin of Safety
Price is 42.8% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $589.24
Fair Value: $1029.59
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNP
14.5% Overvalued
Price is 14.5% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $256.88
Fair Value: $224.43
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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DE

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $589?

+17.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +23.1%

The market implies +17.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +23.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

UNP

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $257?

+11.1%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +14.6%

The market implies +11.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +14.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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DE
50/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
UNP
80/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by margin stability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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DE
-2.52
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNP
-2.61
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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DE
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 82.8%Retail & Other 17.0%
No. of Institutional Holders3,298
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNP
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 90.8%Retail & Other 9.1%
No. of Institutional Holders3,486
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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DE
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNP
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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DE
0
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $32.47M
REED CORY J.
Officer
$6.12M
@ $510.00 · 2026-01-14
MAY JOHN C. II
Chief Executive Officer
$20.80M
@ $501.49 · 2026-01-08
MAY JOHN C. II
Chief Executive Officer
$5.55M
@ $500.08 · 2025-11-25
KALATHUR RAJESH
Chief Technology Officer
$12.30M
@ $500.61 · 2025-02-18
REED CORY J.
Officer
$5.05M
@ $377.63 · 2024-06-24
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNP
3
Sells (3M)
4
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $9.25M
GEHRINGER ERIC J.
Officer
$789,504
@ $263.96 · 2026-06-03
ROCKER KENYATTA G.
Officer
$7.44M
@ $271.76 · 2026-04-24
HAMANN JENNIFER L
Chief Financial Officer
$549,400
@ $274.70 · 2026-04-24
GEHRINGER ERIC J.
Officer
$469,625
@ $234.93 · 2026-03-20
RICHARDSON CRAIG V
Officer
$1.64M
@ $252.00 · 2025-01-27
WHITED ELIZABETH F.
President
$1.88M
@ $250.00 · 2025-01-24
WHITED ELIZABETH F.
President
$875,905
@ $246.59 · 2024-07-30
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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DE
FearGreed
😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNP
FearGreed
😐Neutral(54/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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DE
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
UNP
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (54)
View DE Full AnalysisView UNP Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: DE vs UNP

Is Deere & Company or Union Pacific Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, DE trades at a 42.8% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1030 vs. price $589), compared to UNP's -14.5% margin of safety (intrinsic $224 vs. $257).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Deere & Company or Union Pacific Corporation?▼

UNP scores 80/100 (Wide moat), while DE scores 50/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Deere & Company in financial distress?▼

DE's Altman Z-Score of 2.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNP scores 3.8 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Deere & Company or Union Pacific Corporation?▼

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) generates a 3.6% free cash flow yield, compared to Deere & Company's 2.0%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Deere & Company or Union Pacific Corporation?▼

UNP earns 15.5% ROIC versus DE's 10.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Deere & Company's or Union Pacific Corporation's?▼

UNP's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to DE's 94/100 (Very Safe). UNP has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

DE vs UNP: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io