ConocoPhillips (COP) vs Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, COP is fairly valued at $108, with a DCF intrinsic value of $113 and a margin of safety of 5%. TMO is overvalued at $465, with an intrinsic value of $407 and a margin of safety of -14%. Of the two, COP has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★PEG ratio of 0.94 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
- ★Trailing P/E of 25.5x is 21% below the historical average of 32.3x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
- ★Altman Z-Score of 3.85 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠FCF yield of 5.5% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠21 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $108?
The market implies +6.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $465?
The market implies +11.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +16.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →No durable moat detected, though roic consistency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: COP vs TMO
Is ConocoPhillips or Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, COP trades at a 4.7% margin of safety (intrinsic value $113 vs. price $108), compared to TMO's -14.3% margin of safety (intrinsic $407 vs. $465).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, ConocoPhillips or Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.?▼
TMO scores 60/100 (Narrow moat), while COP scores 38/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is ConocoPhillips in financial distress?▼
COP's Altman Z-Score of 2.8 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. TMO scores 3.9 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, ConocoPhillips or Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.?▼
ConocoPhillips (COP) generates a 5.5% free cash flow yield, compared to Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.'s 3.2%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, ConocoPhillips or Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.?▼
COP earns 11.8% ROIC versus TMO's 6.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, ConocoPhillips's or Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.'s?▼
TMO's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to COP's 78/100 (Safe). TMO has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.