The Progressive Corporation (PGR) vs Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-08-03, PGR is undervalued at $211, with a DCF intrinsic value of $287 and a margin of safety of 26%. TXN is fairly valued at $276, with an intrinsic value of $318 and a margin of safety of 13%. Of the two, PGR has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★The Progressive Corporation scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 37.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $5.91 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Texas Instruments Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Altman Z-Score of 8.73 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
Risks
- ⚠Gross margin of 18.5% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 4 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 60.60 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠FCF yield of 1.4% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 41.8x is 55% above the historical average of 27.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $276?
The market implies +20.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +25.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: PGR vs TXN
Is The Progressive Corporation or Texas Instruments Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, PGR trades at a 26.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $287 vs. price $211), compared to TXN's 13.2% margin of safety (intrinsic $318 vs. $276).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, The Progressive Corporation or Texas Instruments Incorporated?▼
PGR scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while TXN scores 48/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is The Progressive Corporation in financial distress?▼
PGR's Altman Z-Score of 1.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. TXN scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, The Progressive Corporation or Texas Instruments Incorporated?▼
PGR earns 30.6% ROIC versus TXN's 20.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, The Progressive Corporation's or Texas Instruments Incorporated's?▼
PGR's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to TXN's 34/100 (Unsafe). PGR has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.