Pfizer, Inc. (PFE) vs The Progressive Corporation (PGR): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-08-03, PFE is undervalued at $25, with a DCF intrinsic value of $127985960274 and a margin of safety of 100%. PGR is undervalued at $211, with an intrinsic value of $287 and a margin of safety of 26%. Of the two, PFE has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Gross margin of 74.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Trailing P/E of 19.1x is 37% below the historical average of 30.4x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
- ★The Progressive Corporation scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 37.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $5.91 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 15.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.94 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.38 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠Gross margin of 18.5% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 4 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 60.60 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $25?
The market implies -14.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding -15.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: PFE vs PGR
Is Pfizer, Inc. or The Progressive Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, PFE trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $127985960274 vs. price $25), compared to PGR's 26.3% margin of safety (intrinsic $287 vs. $211).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Pfizer, Inc. or The Progressive Corporation?▼
PGR scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while PFE scores 35/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Pfizer, Inc. in financial distress?▼
PFE's Altman Z-Score of 1.4 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. PGR scores 1.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Pfizer, Inc. or The Progressive Corporation?▼
PGR earns 30.6% ROIC versus PFE's 10.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Pfizer, Inc.'s or The Progressive Corporation's?▼
PGR's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to PFE's 24/100 (Unsafe). PGR has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.