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Compare Stocks › PEP vs XOM

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) vs Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

PEP
PepsiCo, Inc.
$152.74
VS
XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation
$158.16

Rewards

PEP
  • ★PepsiCo, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★PepsiCo, Inc. scores 88/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 11.0% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
XOM
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $1.06 of market value — management is creating shareholder value.
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 4.16 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

PEP
  • ⚠High leverage (2.58x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $4.7M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
XOM
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 12.6 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 23.6x is 84% above the historical average of 12.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 26.1% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

Key Valuation Metrics

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PEP
XOM
Valuation
$8.23B
Free Cash Flow
$23.61B
3.94%
FCF Yield
3.58%
25.46
Trailing P/E
23.57
16.73
Forward P/E
18.28
Quality & Moat
14.19%
ROIC
7.69%
40.10%
ROE
10.82%
54.46%
Gross Margin
31.05%
0.38
PEG Ratio
N/A
Balance Sheet Safety
2.58
Debt / Equity
0.19
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
2.39
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.67
3.73%
Dividend Yield
2.60%
PEP: 6Ties: 1XOM: 4
PEPXOM

Historical Fundamentals

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PEP

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

XOM

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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PEP
$-9.83
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$5.34B
Δ Market Cap
$-52.53B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
XOM
$1.06
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Creator
Σ Retained
$49.66B
Δ Market Cap
+$52.66B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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PEP
81.1% Overvalued
Price is 81.1% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $152.74
Fair Value: $84.35
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
XOM
2.5% Margin of Safety
Price is 2.5% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $158.16
Fair Value: $162.15
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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PEP

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $153?

+13.5%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +13.5%

The market implies +13.5% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +13.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

XOM

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $158?

+13.0%
Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.

Economic Moat Score

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PEP
88/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
XOM
48/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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PEP
-2.57
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
XOM
-2.74
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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PEP
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 79.9%Retail & Other 19.9%
No. of Institutional Holders4,357
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
XOM
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 67.5%Retail & Other 32.4%
No. of Institutional Holders5,390
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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PEP
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
XOM
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
DREYFUS MARIA S
Director
$2.00M
@ $109.25 · 2024-06-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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PEP
1
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.68M
LAGUARTA RAMON L
Chief Executive Officer
$4.68M
@ $167.39 · 2026-03-02
GALLAGHER MARIE T
Officer
$3.99M
@ $159.55 · 2025-03-04
FLAVELL DAVID JAMES
General Counsel
$1.04M
@ $150.90 · 2025-03-03
LAGUARTA RAMON L
Chief Executive Officer
$7.74M
@ $154.90 · 2025-03-03
KRISHNAN RAMKUMAR
Chief Executive Officer
$1.50M
@ $150.97 · 2025-03-03
WILLIAMS STEVEN C
Officer
$2.71M
@ $150.89 · 2025-03-03
SANTILLI PAULA ALEJANDRA
Officer
$1.18M
@ $151.89 · 2025-02-27
FLAVELL DAVID JAMES
General Counsel
$1.19M
@ $179.86 · 2024-05-10
KRISHNAN RAMKUMAR
Officer
$1.00M
@ $178.00 · 2024-05-09
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
XOM
0
Sells (3M)
0
Sells (12M)
No open market insider sales found.
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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PEP
FearGreed
😐Neutral(50/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
XOM
FearGreed
😏Greed(69/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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PEP
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (50)
XOM
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (69)
View PEP Full AnalysisView XOM Full Analysis