Compare Stocks › MSFT vs VST
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) vs Vistra Corp. (VST)
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
$389.02
VS
VST
Vistra Corp.
$167.37
Rewards
MSFT
- ★Microsoft Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 68.6% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Microsoft Corporation scores 88/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
VST
- ★Share count has been reduced by 13% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $12.44 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
MSFT
- ⚠FCF yield of 2.5% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
VST
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 76.8x is 127% above the historical average of 33.9x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠High leverage (4.00x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.42 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →MSFT
VST
Valuation
$71.61B
Free Cash Flow
$-459.25M
2.48%
FCF Yield
-0.81%
24.33
Trailing P/E
76.78
20.64
Forward P/E
14.71
Quality & Moat
22.10%
ROIC
7.26%
26.05%
ROE
14.72%
68.59%
Gross Margin
33.24%
0.41
PEG Ratio
N/A
Balance Sheet Safety
0.32
Debt / Equity
4.00
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.19
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.75
0.94%
Dividend Yield
0.54%
MSFT: 9Ties: 1VST: 1
MSFTVST
Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →MSFT
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
VST
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →MSFT
$9.18
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$196.68B
Δ Market Cap
+$1.81T
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
VST
$12.44
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$3.66B
Δ Market Cap
+$45.50B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →MSFT
0.5% Overvalued
Price is 0.5% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $389.02
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $387.10
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
VST
15.7% Overvalued
Price is 15.7% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $167.37
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $144.65
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →MSFT
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $389?
+12.6%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +17.4%
The market implies +12.6% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.
Standard FCF implies +17.4%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.
VST
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →MSFT
88/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
VST
44/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →MSFT
-2.51
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
VST
-2.54
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →MSFT
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 76.0%Retail & Other 23.9%
No. of Institutional Holders8,054
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
VST
Insiders 0.8%Institutions 93.0%Retail & Other 6.2%
No. of Institutional Holders1,759
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →MSFT
1
Buys (3M)
2
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.44M
STANTON JOHN W.
Director
$1.99M
@ $397.35 · 2026-02-18
SMITH BRADFORD LEE
President
$1.45M
@ $377.47 · 2025-04-23
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
VST
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
PITESA JOHN WILLIAM
Director
$190,125
@ $126.75 · 2025-03-12
CRUTCHFIELD LISA
Director
$29,969
@ $89.46 · 2024-06-10
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →MSFT
1
Sells (3M)
13
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $172.43M
HOGAN KATHLEEN T
Officer
$5.05M
@ $409.55 · 2026-03-06
NUMOTO TAKESHI
Officer
$1.36M
@ $478.72 · 2025-12-04
ALTHOFF JUDSON
Officer
$6.27M
@ $491.52 · 2025-12-02
SMITH BRADFORD LEE
President
$19.97M
@ $518.64 · 2025-11-03
NADELLA SATYA
Chief Executive Officer
$75.32M
@ $504.78 · 2025-09-03
NUMOTO TAKESHI
Officer
$2.56M
@ $527.32 · 2025-08-12
NUMOTO TAKESHI
Officer
$1.39M
@ $463.00 · 2025-06-03
NUMOTO TAKESHI
Officer
$460,008
@ $460.01 · 2025-05-30
HOGAN KATHLEEN T
Officer
$9.76M
@ $453.77 · 2025-05-21
ALTHOFF JUDSON
Officer
$7.33M
@ $458.18 · 2025-05-19
COLEMAN AMY
Officer
$5.99M
@ $452.04 · 2025-05-15
SMITH BRADFORD LEE
President
$1.68M
@ $438.44 · 2025-05-05
SMITH BRADFORD LEE
President
$35.30M
@ $435.84 · 2025-05-05
NUMOTO TAKESHI
Officer
$1.12M
@ $447.41 · 2024-12-09
NUMOTO TAKESHI
Officer
$874,634
@ $437.32 · 2024-12-04
NUMOTO TAKESHI
Officer
$1.50M
@ $428.76 · 2024-12-02
ALTHOFF JUDSON
Officer
$10.43M
@ $417.00 · 2024-11-22
NUMOTO TAKESHI
Officer
$414,720
@ $414.72 · 2024-11-22
YOUNG CHRISTOPHER DAVID
Officer
$3.05M
@ $423.66 · 2024-11-12
HOGAN KATHLEEN T
Officer
$7.16M
@ $411.86 · 2024-09-10
NUMOTO TAKESHI
Officer
$1.03M
@ $411.04 · 2024-09-10
SMITH BRADFORD LEE
President
$16.10M
@ $402.59 · 2024-09-09
HOOD AMY E
Chief Financial Officer
$15.60M
@ $410.55 · 2024-09-05
NADELLA SATYA
Chief Executive Officer
$32.02M
@ $408.63 · 2024-09-04
NUMOTO TAKESHI
Officer
$235,535
@ $416.14 · 2024-06-03
ALTHOFF JUDSON
Officer
$10.64M
@ $425.68 · 2024-05-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
VST
1
Sells (3M)
35
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $255.87M
MOORE STEPHANIE ZAPATA
General Counsel
$1.60M
@ $160.31 · 2026-03-09
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$3.61M
@ $162.05 · 2025-12-11
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$3.61M
@ $162.05 · 2025-12-11
MOORE STEPHANIE ZAPATA
General Counsel
$1.42M
@ $173.35 · 2025-11-24
HUDSON SCOTT A
Officer
$9.46M
@ $168.86 · 2025-11-14
KIRBY CARRIE LEE
Officer
$10.18M
@ $174.75 · 2025-11-14
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$4.09M
@ $186.53 · 2025-11-11
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$1.85M
@ $192.30 · 2025-10-29
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$4.17M
@ $203.64 · 2025-10-27
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$7.52M
@ $191.79 · 2025-10-24
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$4.08M
@ $188.75 · 2025-10-22
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$8.81M
@ $206.11 · 2025-10-20
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$9.07M
@ $212.28 · 2025-10-16
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$17.21M
@ $204.51 · 2025-10-14
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$8.38M
@ $204.62 · 2025-10-09
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$8.73M
@ $204.21 · 2025-10-07
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$8.74M
@ $204.44 · 2025-10-03
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$7.72M
@ $197.04 · 2025-10-01
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$8.62M
@ $201.56 · 2025-09-29
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$8.63M
@ $201.86 · 2025-09-25
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$8.99M
@ $210.52 · 2025-09-23
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$9.07M
@ $212.34 · 2025-09-19
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$9.11M
@ $213.17 · 2025-09-17
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$8.82M
@ $206.32 · 2025-09-15
BURKE JAMES A.
Chief Executive Officer
$12.93M
@ $206.26 · 2025-09-11
MOLDOVAN KRISTOPHER E.
Chief Financial Officer
$6.29M
@ $180.00 · 2025-06-17
SULT JOHN R
Director
$4.29M
@ $171.67 · 2025-06-06
HELM SCOTT BRADFORD
Director
$8.64M
@ $172.75 · 2025-06-05
MOLDOVAN KRISTOPHER E.
Chief Financial Officer
$7.20M
@ $160.00 · 2025-05-27
MOORE STEPHANIE ZAPATA
General Counsel
$5.65M
@ $161.44 · 2025-05-27
HUDSON SCOTT A
Officer
$8.79M
@ $157.00 · 2025-05-20
HELM SCOTT BRADFORD
Director
$3.14M
@ $156.80 · 2025-05-19
KIRBY CARRIE LEE
Officer
$16.95M
@ $156.98 · 2025-05-19
MOLDOVAN KRISTOPHER E.
Chief Financial Officer
$1.55M
@ $150.00 · 2025-05-13
MOLDOVAN KRISTOPHER E.
Chief Financial Officer
$6.95M
@ $140.00 · 2025-05-01
HELM SCOTT BRADFORD
Director
$2.80M
@ $139.77 · 2024-12-10
HUDSON SCOTT A
Officer
$18.88M
@ $164.16 · 2024-11-25
KIRBY CARRIE LEE
Officer
$13.79M
@ $162.28 · 2024-11-22
MOORE STEPHANIE ZAPATA
General Counsel
$6.18M
@ $161.94 · 2024-11-22
MUSCATO STEPHEN J
Officer
$33.41M
@ $161.34 · 2024-11-22
MOORE STEPHANIE ZAPATA
General Counsel
$2.79M
@ $80.37 · 2024-08-13
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →MSFT
😐Neutral(43/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
VST
😐Neutral(47/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →MSFT
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (43)
VST
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (47)