Compare Stocks › MS vs UPS

Morgan Stanley (MS) vs United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, MS is undervalued at $210, with a DCF intrinsic value of $269 and a margin of safety of 22%. UPS is undervalued at $104, with an intrinsic value of $131131304196 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, UPS has the wider margin of safety.

Morgan Stanley

$210.42

UPS

United Parcel Service, Inc.

$104.22

Rewards

★Gross margin of 87.6% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Morgan Stanley scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.56 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

UPS

★United Parcel Service, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
★United Parcel Service, Inc. scores 72/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
⚠Insiders have sold $5.4M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

UPS

⚠Gross margin of 21.2% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠High leverage (1.59x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 20.1% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

Key Valuation Metrics

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UPS

Valuation

N/A

Free Cash Flow

$4.98B

N/A

FCF Yield

N/A

17.01

Trailing P/E

19.37

15.45

Forward P/E

12.91

Quality & Moat

3.68%

ROIC

7.08%

14.08%

ROE

29.60%

87.64%

Gross Margin

21.22%

1.99

PEG Ratio

1.63

Balance Sheet Safety

Net cash

Net Debt / Equity

1.59

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.16

2.19%

Dividend Yield

6.29%

MS: 3Ties: 1UPS: 5

MSUPS

Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UPS

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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$6.65

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$20.84B

Δ Market Cap

+$138.59B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

UPS

$-0.00

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$1.89B

Δ Market Cap

$-74.65

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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21.9% Margin of Safety

Price is 21.9% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $210.42

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $269.50

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

UPS

100.0% Margin of Safety

Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $104.22

Strongly undervalued

Fairly valued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $131131304195.96

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

UPS

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $104?

-14.7%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies -12.7%

The market implies -14.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding -12.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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80/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

UPS

72/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Forensic Accounting

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-2.09

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

UPS

-2.57

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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Insiders 24.4%Institutions 63.1%Retail & Other 12.5%

No. of Institutional Holders3,329

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

UPS

Insiders 0.0%Institutions 70.8%Retail & Other 29.2%

No. of Institutional Holders2,671

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $5,630

PETERSON DOUGLAS L

Director

$5,630

@ $156.39 · 2025-10-17

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

UPS

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $44,084

SHI CHRISTIANA SMITH

Director

$44,084

@ $88.17 · 2025-08-22

TOME CAROL B.

Chief Executive Officer

$1.00M

@ $85.67 · 2025-08-01

JOHNSON WILLIAM R

Director

$432,477

@ $86.50 · 2025-07-31

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $64.71M

SCHAPIRO MARY L

Director

$212,055

@ $212.06 · 2026-07-28

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$5.21M

@ $215.55 · 2026-07-17

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$2.12M

@ $190.75 · 2026-04-20

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$2.78M

@ $189.24 · 2026-04-17

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$9.74M

@ $188.59 · 2026-04-16

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$3.04M

@ $188.22 · 2026-04-16

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$6.02M

@ $182.61 · 2026-01-30

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$3.69M

@ $184.55 · 2026-01-20

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$5.57M

@ $183.62 · 2026-01-20

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$3.97M

@ $184.00 · 2026-01-20

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$1.44M

@ $183.45 · 2026-01-20

YESHAYA SHARON

Chief Financial Officer

$2.94M

@ $185.77 · 2026-01-20

SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III

Officer

$1.55M

@ $182.08 · 2026-01-20

PICK EDWARD N.

Chief Executive Officer

$16.43M

@ $164.34 · 2025-10-31

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$2.53M

@ $140.62 · 2025-07-17

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.69M

@ $141.12 · 2025-07-17

SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III

Officer

$2.81M

@ $140.30 · 2025-07-17

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$4.09M

@ $141.13 · 2025-07-17

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$3.70M

@ $127.37 · 2025-05-12

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$4.80M

@ $120.00 · 2025-05-02

HERZ ROBERT H

Director

$95,459

@ $119.32 · 2025-05-02

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.12M

@ $111.65 · 2025-04-15

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$1.15M

@ $138.06 · 2025-01-22

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$2.52M

@ $136.92 · 2025-01-21

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$4.20M

@ $136.43 · 2025-01-21

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.78M

@ $136.20 · 2025-01-21

AKRAM RAJA

Chief Financial Officer

$2.38M

@ $136.01 · 2025-01-21

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$5.00M

@ $136.61 · 2025-01-21

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

UPS

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $2.66M

BROTHERS NORMAN MICHAEL JR.

Officer

$2.66M

@ $106.15 · 2026-01-28

BROTHERS NORMAN MICHAEL JR.

Officer

$1.02M

@ $138.57 · 2024-11-25

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😐Neutral(57/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

UPS

😐Neutral(45/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (57)

UPS

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (45)

View MS Full Analysis View UPS Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MS vs UPS

Is Morgan Stanley or United Parcel Service, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, UPS trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $131131304196 vs. price $104), compared to MS's 21.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $269 vs. $210).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Morgan Stanley or United Parcel Service, Inc.?▼

MS scores 80/100 (Wide moat), while UPS scores 72/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Morgan Stanley in financial distress?▼

MS's Altman Z-Score of 0.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UPS scores 2.0 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Morgan Stanley or United Parcel Service, Inc.?▼

UPS earns 7.1% ROIC versus MS's 3.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Morgan Stanley's or United Parcel Service, Inc.'s?▼

MS's dividend earns a safety score of 79/100 (Safe), compared to UPS's 25/100 (Unsafe). MS has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.