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Deere & Company (DE) vs Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, DE is undervalued at $589, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1030 and a margin of safety of 43%. MRK is undervalued at $114, with an intrinsic value of $597 and a margin of safety of 81%. Of the two, MRK has the wider margin of safety.

DE
Deere & Company
$589.24
VS
MRK
Merck & Co., Inc.
$113.87

Rewards

DE
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 52.5% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
MRK
  • ★Gross margin of 76.7% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $4.94 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
  • ★Management has timed buybacks well — 2 out of 3 years showed value-accretive repurchases.

Risks

DE
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.0% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 33.3x is 87% above the historical average of 17.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠High leverage (3.08x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
MRK
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 5.36 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠14 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 5.6% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

Key Valuation Metrics

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DE
MRK
Valuation
$3.23B
Free Cash Flow
$14.05B
2.03%
FCF Yield
5.00%
33.33
Trailing P/E
32.08
25.78
Forward P/E
11.91
Quality & Moat
10.65%
ROIC
21.10%
18.35%
ROE
18.94%
25.96%
Gross Margin
76.73%
1.78
PEG Ratio
5.36
Balance Sheet Safety
3.08
Net Debt / Equity
0.95
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
4.60
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.47
1.11%
Dividend Yield
2.95%
DE: 1Ties: 3MRK: 8
DEMRK

Historical Fundamentals

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DE

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

MRK

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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DE
$-0.13
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$17.54B
Δ Market Cap
$-2.23B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
MRK
$-1.72
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$12.28B
Δ Market Cap
$-21.09B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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DE
42.8% Margin of Safety
Price is 42.8% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $589.24
Fair Value: $1029.59
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
MRK
80.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 80.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $113.87
Fair Value: $596.86
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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DE

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $589?

+17.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +23.1%

The market implies +17.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +23.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

MRK

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $114?

+4.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +9.7%

The market implies +4.9% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +9.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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DE
50/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
MRK
68/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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DE
-2.52
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
MRK
-2.31
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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DE
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 82.8%Retail & Other 17.0%
No. of Institutional Holders3,298
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
MRK
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 82.3%Retail & Other 17.6%
No. of Institutional Holders4,766
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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DE
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
MRK
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
THULIN INGE G
Director
$250,000
@ $88.28 · 2025-02-06
BAKER DOUGLAS M JR
Director
$1.33M
@ $88.50 · 2025-02-05
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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DE
0
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $32.47M
REED CORY J.
Officer
$6.12M
@ $510.00 · 2026-01-14
MAY JOHN C. II
Chief Executive Officer
$20.80M
@ $501.49 · 2026-01-08
MAY JOHN C. II
Chief Executive Officer
$5.55M
@ $500.08 · 2025-11-25
KALATHUR RAJESH
Chief Technology Officer
$12.30M
@ $500.61 · 2025-02-18
REED CORY J.
Officer
$5.05M
@ $377.63 · 2024-06-24
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
MRK
0
Sells (3M)
14
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $42.04M
GUINDO CHIRFI
Officer
$1.21M
@ $121.46 · 2026-02-12
LI DEAN Y
Officer
$1.20M
@ $117.52 · 2026-02-10
ZACHARY JENNIFER L
General Counsel
$14.49M
@ $119.15 · 2026-02-09
GUINDO CHIRFI
Officer
$1.18M
@ $118.41 · 2026-02-09
OOSTHUIZEN JOHANNES JACOBUS
Officer
$1.83M
@ $121.87 · 2026-02-06
WILLIAMS DAVID MICHAEL
Chief Technology Officer
$609,525
@ $121.91 · 2026-02-06
DELUCA RICHARD ROBERT JR.
Officer
$4.56M
@ $120.92 · 2026-02-06
GUINDO CHIRFI
Officer
$2.44M
@ $121.88 · 2026-02-05
SMART DALTON E. III
Officer
$765,920
@ $119.67 · 2026-02-04
DAVIS ROBERT M
Chief Executive Officer
$5.60M
@ $118.04 · 2026-02-04
LI DEAN Y
Officer
$1.79M
@ $118.77 · 2026-02-04
LITCHFIELD CAROLINE
Chief Financial Officer
$5.02M
@ $119.61 · 2026-02-04
DOWNING CRISTAL N.
Officer
$616,395
@ $87.00 · 2025-11-10
WILLIAMS DAVID MICHAEL
Chief Technology Officer
$720,040
@ $83.59 · 2025-11-03
SMART DALTON E. III
Officer
$352,723
@ $82.76 · 2025-04-25
OOSTHUIZEN JOHANNES JACOBUS
Officer
$714,745
@ $84.09 · 2025-02-19
WILLIAMS DAVID MICHAEL
Chief Technology Officer
$512,057
@ $85.34 · 2025-02-13
DOWNING CRISTAL N.
Officer
$209,551
@ $88.76 · 2025-02-06
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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DE
FearGreed
😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
MRK
FearGreed
😐Neutral(53/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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DE
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
MRK
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (53)
View DE Full AnalysisView MRK Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: DE vs MRK

Is Deere & Company or Merck & Co., Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, MRK trades at a 80.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $597 vs. price $114), compared to DE's 42.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $1030 vs. $589).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Deere & Company or Merck & Co., Inc.?▼

MRK scores 68/100 (Narrow moat), while DE scores 50/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Deere & Company in financial distress?▼

DE's Altman Z-Score of 2.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MRK scores 3.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Deere & Company or Merck & Co., Inc.?▼

Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) generates a 5.0% free cash flow yield, compared to Deere & Company's 2.0%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Deere & Company or Merck & Co., Inc.?▼

MRK earns 21.1% ROIC versus DE's 10.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Deere & Company's or Merck & Co., Inc.'s?▼

DE's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to MRK's 79/100 (Safe). DE has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

DE vs MRK: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io