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Mastercard Incorporated (MA) vs United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, MA is fairly valued at $573, with a DCF intrinsic value of $558 and a margin of safety of -3%. UPS is undervalued at $104, with an intrinsic value of $131131304196 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, UPS has the wider margin of safety.

MA
Mastercard Incorporated
$573.10
VS
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
$104.22

Rewards

MA
  • ★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
UPS
  • ★United Parcel Service, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★United Parcel Service, Inc. scores 72/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

MA
  • ⚠High leverage (2.33x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠5 insider sales totaling $22.1M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
UPS
  • ⚠Gross margin of 21.2% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠High leverage (1.59x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 20.1% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

Key Valuation Metrics

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MA
UPS
Valuation
$16.96B
Free Cash Flow
$4.98B
3.38%
FCF Yield
N/A
31.54
Trailing P/E
19.37
24.96
Forward P/E
12.91
Quality & Moat
55.99%
ROIC
7.08%
241.20%
ROE
29.60%
100.00%
Gross Margin
21.22%
1.76
PEG Ratio
1.63
Balance Sheet Safety
2.33
Net Debt / Equity
1.59
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.59
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.16
0.61%
Dividend Yield
6.29%
MA: 5Ties: 1UPS: 5
MAUPS

Historical Fundamentals

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MA

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UPS

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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MA
$5.62
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$31.68B
Δ Market Cap
+$177.96B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UPS
$-0.00
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$1.89B
Δ Market Cap
$-74.65
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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MA
2.7% Overvalued
Price is 2.7% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $573.10
Fair Value: $557.89
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UPS
100.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $104.22
Fair Value: $131131304195.96
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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MA

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $573?

+15.1%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +13.4%

The market implies +15.1% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +13.4%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

UPS

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $104?

-14.7%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -12.7%

The market implies -14.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding -12.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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MA
99/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
UPS
72/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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MA
-2.53
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UPS
-2.57
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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MA
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 91.5%Retail & Other 8.3%
No. of Institutional Holders4,764
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UPS
Insiders 0.0%Institutions 70.8%Retail & Other 29.2%
No. of Institutional Holders2,671
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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MA
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UPS
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $44,084
SHI CHRISTIANA SMITH
Director
$44,084
@ $88.17 · 2025-08-22
TOME CAROL B.
Chief Executive Officer
$1.00M
@ $85.67 · 2025-08-01
JOHNSON WILLIAM R
Director
$432,477
@ $86.50 · 2025-07-31
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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MA
5
Sells (3M)
10
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $53.72M
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$10.59M
@ $534.87 · 2026-07-15
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$185,760
@ $540.00 · 2026-07-15
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$216,000
@ $540.00 · 2026-07-07
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$3.58M
@ $526.37 · 2026-07-02
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$7.49M
@ $525.19 · 2026-07-01
LING HAI
Officer
$4.48M
@ $499.20 · 2026-02-24
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$10.20M
@ $591.00 · 2025-09-02
LING HAI
Officer
$2.69M
@ $600.00 · 2025-08-22
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$10.46M
@ $586.89 · 2025-08-19
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$3.83M
@ $566.46 · 2025-08-05
GENACHOWSKI JULIUS
Director
$178,049
@ $570.67 · 2025-07-07
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$536,480
@ $560.00 · 2025-06-30
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$601,447
@ $546.77 · 2025-06-27
GENACHOWSKI JULIUS
Director
$173,910
@ $561.00 · 2025-06-24
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$536,480
@ $560.00 · 2025-06-24
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$508,474
@ $535.80 · 2025-06-20
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$5.02M
@ $532.97 · 2025-06-20
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$1.76M
@ $561.78 · 2025-06-16
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$549,373
@ $572.86 · 2025-06-13
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$5.55M
@ $588.18 · 2025-06-12
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$8.22M
@ $585.05 · 2025-06-05
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$218,223
@ $577.31 · 2025-05-15
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$257,535
@ $572.30 · 2025-05-12
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$8.68M
@ $550.16 · 2025-03-26
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$3.81M
@ $534.68 · 2025-03-19
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$6.12M
@ $556.14 · 2025-03-05
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$9.78M
@ $553.76 · 2025-03-05
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$6.19M
@ $562.72 · 2025-02-26
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$6.18M
@ $564.99 · 2025-02-18
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$10.17M
@ $564.95 · 2025-02-18
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$7.97M
@ $565.00 · 2025-02-18
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$2.36M
@ $500.44 · 2024-11-01
MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
Officer
$2.30M
@ $491.03 · 2024-09-27
MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
Officer
$2.29M
@ $489.86 · 2024-09-20
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$550,000
@ $500.00 · 2024-09-17
MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
Officer
$2.31M
@ $493.10 · 2024-09-13
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$528,000
@ $480.00 · 2024-08-29
MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$42.19M
@ $468.80 · 2024-08-22
MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$42.03M
@ $467.02 · 2024-08-21
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$3.16M
@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16
LING HAI
Officer
$1.36M
@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$6.11M
@ $455.00 · 2024-08-05
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UPS
0
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $2.66M
BROTHERS NORMAN MICHAEL JR.
Officer
$2.66M
@ $106.15 · 2026-01-28
BROTHERS NORMAN MICHAEL JR.
Officer
$1.02M
@ $138.57 · 2024-11-25
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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MA
FearGreed
😏Greed(67/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UPS
FearGreed
😐Neutral(45/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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MA
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (67)
UPS
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (45)
View MA Full AnalysisView UPS Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MA vs UPS

Is Mastercard Incorporated or United Parcel Service, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, UPS trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $131131304196 vs. price $104), compared to MA's -2.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $558 vs. $573).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Mastercard Incorporated or United Parcel Service, Inc.?▼

MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while UPS scores 72/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is United Parcel Service, Inc. in financial distress?▼

UPS's Altman Z-Score of 2.0 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MA scores 10.6 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Mastercard Incorporated or United Parcel Service, Inc.?▼

MA earns 56.0% ROIC versus UPS's 7.1%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Mastercard Incorporated's or United Parcel Service, Inc.'s?▼

MA's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to UPS's 25/100 (Unsafe). MA has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.