Compare Stocks › MA vs UPS

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) vs United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, MA is fairly valued at $490, with a DCF intrinsic value of $571 and a margin of safety of 14%. UPS is undervalued at $105, with an intrinsic value of $159 and a margin of safety of 34%. Of the two, UPS has the wider margin of safety.

Mastercard Incorporated

$489.79

UPS

United Parcel Service, Inc.

$104.86

Rewards

★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

UPS

★United Parcel Service, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
★United Parcel Service, Inc. scores 72/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

⚠High leverage (1.60x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠12 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

UPS

⚠Gross margin of 22.4% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠FCF yield of 5.2% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 20.1% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

Key Valuation Metrics

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UPS

Valuation

$16.15B

Free Cash Flow

$4.63B

3.73%

FCF Yield

5.19%

28.31

Trailing P/E

16.97

21.50

Forward P/E

13.10

Quality & Moat

63.51%

ROIC

9.94%

232.08%

ROE

33.35%

100.00%

Gross Margin

22.45%

1.54

PEG Ratio

1.74

Balance Sheet Safety

1.60

Net Debt / Equity

1.45

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

0.50

Net Debt / EBITDA

1.93

0.69%

Dividend Yield

5.96%

MA: 6Ties: 1UPS: 5

MAUPS

Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UPS

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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$5.62

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$31.68B

Δ Market Cap

+$177.96B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

UPS

$-34.39

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$1.89B

Δ Market Cap

$-65.09B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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14.2% Margin of Safety

Price is 14.2% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $489.79

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $571.14

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

UPS

34.0% Margin of Safety

Price is 34.0% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $104.86

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $158.76

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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What growth rate is the market pricing in at $490?

+13.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +12.0%

The market implies +13.0% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +12.0%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

UPS

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $105?

+7.6%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +10.3%

The market implies +7.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +10.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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99/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

UPS

72/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Forensic Accounting

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-2.53

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

UPS

-2.57

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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Insiders 0.1%Institutions 91.6%Retail & Other 8.3%

No. of Institutional Holders4,804

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

UPS

Insiders 0.0%Institutions 70.6%Retail & Other 29.3%

No. of Institutional Holders2,678

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

UPS

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $1.48M

SHI CHRISTIANA SMITH

Director

$44,084

@ $88.17 · 2025-08-22

TOME CAROL B.

Chief Executive Officer

$1.00M

@ $85.67 · 2025-08-01

JOHNSON WILLIAM R

Director

$432,477

@ $86.50 · 2025-07-31

JOHNSON WILLIAM R

Director

$643,034

@ $128.61 · 2024-07-25

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $39.22M

LING HAI

Officer

$4.48M

@ $499.20 · 2026-02-24

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.20M

@ $591.00 · 2025-09-02

LING HAI

Officer

$2.69M

@ $600.00 · 2025-08-22

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.46M

@ $586.89 · 2025-08-19

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.83M

@ $566.46 · 2025-08-05

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$178,049

@ $570.67 · 2025-07-07

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-30

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$601,447

@ $546.77 · 2025-06-27

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$173,910

@ $561.00 · 2025-06-24

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-24

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$508,474

@ $535.80 · 2025-06-20

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.02M

@ $532.97 · 2025-06-20

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$1.76M

@ $561.78 · 2025-06-16

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$549,373

@ $572.86 · 2025-06-13

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.55M

@ $588.18 · 2025-06-12

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$8.22M

@ $585.05 · 2025-06-05

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$218,223

@ $577.31 · 2025-05-15

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$257,535

@ $572.30 · 2025-05-12

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$8.68M

@ $550.16 · 2025-03-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$3.81M

@ $534.68 · 2025-03-19

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$9.78M

@ $553.76 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.12M

@ $556.14 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.19M

@ $562.72 · 2025-02-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$6.18M

@ $564.99 · 2025-02-18

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$10.17M

@ $564.95 · 2025-02-18

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$7.97M

@ $565.00 · 2025-02-18

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$2.36M

@ $500.44 · 2024-11-01

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.30M

@ $491.03 · 2024-09-27

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.29M

@ $489.86 · 2024-09-20

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$550,000

@ $500.00 · 2024-09-17

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.31M

@ $493.10 · 2024-09-13

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$528,000

@ $480.00 · 2024-08-29

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.19M

@ $468.80 · 2024-08-22

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.03M

@ $467.02 · 2024-08-21

LING HAI

Officer

$1.36M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.16M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$6.11M

@ $455.00 · 2024-08-05

LING HAI

Officer

$1.35M

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$512,006

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$4.07M

@ $451.06 · 2024-06-20

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

UPS

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $2.66M

BROTHERS NORMAN MICHAEL JR.

Officer

$2.66M

@ $106.15 · 2026-01-28

BROTHERS NORMAN MICHAEL JR.

Officer

$1.02M

@ $138.57 · 2024-11-25

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😐Neutral(47/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

UPS

😐Neutral(51/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (47)

UPS

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (51)

View MA Full Analysis View UPS Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MA vs UPS

Is Mastercard Incorporated or United Parcel Service, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, UPS trades at a 34.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $159 vs. price $105), compared to MA's 14.2% margin of safety (intrinsic $571 vs. $490).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Mastercard Incorporated or United Parcel Service, Inc.?▼

MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while UPS scores 72/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is United Parcel Service, Inc. in financial distress?▼

UPS's Altman Z-Score of 2.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MA scores 10.6 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Mastercard Incorporated or United Parcel Service, Inc.?▼

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) generates a 5.2% free cash flow yield, compared to Mastercard Incorporated's 3.7%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Mastercard Incorporated or United Parcel Service, Inc.?▼

MA earns 63.5% ROIC versus UPS's 9.9%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Mastercard Incorporated's or United Parcel Service, Inc.'s?▼

MA's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to UPS's 34/100 (Unsafe). MA has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.