Compare Stocks › LLY vs PGR
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$963.33
VS
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
$199.31
Rewards
LLY
- ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
PGR
- ★The Progressive Corporation scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 37.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $5.92 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
LLY
- ⚠FCF yield of 1.1% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
PGR
- ⚠Gross margin of 18.6% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 4 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
- ⚠6 insider sales totaling $1.6M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →LLY
PGR
Valuation
$9.16B
Free Cash Flow
N/A
1.06%
FCF Yield
N/A
34.25
Trailing P/E
10.14
22.06
Forward P/E
12.35
Quality & Moat
37.80%
ROIC
28.64%
66.16%
ROE
35.29%
82.83%
Gross Margin
18.56%
0.20
PEG Ratio
1.04
Balance Sheet Safety
1.39
Debt / Equity
0.26
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.05
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.41
0.65%
Dividend Yield
6.97%
LLY: 4Ties: 1PGR: 5
LLYPGR
Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →LLY
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
PGR
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
PGR
$2.90
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$19.86B
Δ Market Cap
+$57.60B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →LLY
15.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 15.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $963.33
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $1145.81
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
PGR
30.2% Margin of Safety
Price is 30.2% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $199.31
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $285.51
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →LLY
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $963?
+18.3%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +29.7%
The market implies +18.3% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +29.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
PGR
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
PGR
99/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
PGR
-2.65
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.0%Retail & Other 14.8%
No. of Institutional Holders5,509
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
PGR
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 88.8%Retail & Other 10.9%
No. of Institutional Holders2,414
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
PGR
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →LLY
0
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.84B
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
PGR
6
Sells (3M)
35
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $45.42M
JOHNSON DEVIN C
Director
$199,038
@ $203.10 · 2026-04-16
JOYCE CARL G.
Officer
$55,754
@ $206.50 · 2026-03-20
BAILO KAREN
Officer
$745,604
@ $212.00 · 2026-03-05
JOYCE CARL G.
Officer
$29,892
@ $212.00 · 2026-03-05
PUMAREJO MARIBEL
Officer
$150,138
@ $203.44 · 2026-02-24
BAUER JONATHAN S
Chief Investment Officer
$460,111
@ $203.05 · 2026-02-23
QUIGG ANDREW J
Officer
$336,973
@ $204.35 · 2026-01-21
BAUER JONATHAN S
Chief Investment Officer
$634,507
@ $204.35 · 2026-01-21
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$302,131
@ $224.80 · 2025-12-19
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$1.14M
@ $228.48 · 2025-11-28
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$307,050
@ $228.29 · 2025-11-21
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$295,900
@ $220.00 · 2025-11-11
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$325,624
@ $242.10 · 2025-09-19
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.56M
@ $242.22 · 2025-09-19
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
Officer
$536,978
@ $242.10 · 2025-09-19
GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
$7.54M
@ $246.06 · 2025-09-02
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$337,299
@ $250.78 · 2025-08-22
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.56M
@ $249.96 · 2025-08-22
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
Officer
$556,230
@ $250.78 · 2025-08-22
NIEDERST LORI A
Officer
$2.02M
@ $250.18 · 2025-08-14
BAILO KAREN
Officer
$2.22M
@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28
QUIGG ANDREW J
Officer
$795,325
@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28
BAUER JONATHAN S
Chief Investment Officer
$595,933
@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$4.15M
@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.51M
@ $242.16 · 2025-07-28
GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
$7.42M
@ $242.12 · 2025-07-28
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
President
$552,814
@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$313,633
@ $247.54 · 2025-07-18
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.64M
@ $263.79 · 2025-06-30
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$329,901
@ $260.38 · 2025-06-20
BURGDOERFER STUART B
Director
$958,643
@ $260.43 · 2025-06-20
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
Officer
$1.04M
@ $260.38 · 2025-06-20
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.75M
@ $275.37 · 2025-05-28
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$351,985
@ $277.81 · 2025-05-23
VAN DYKE KAHINA
Director
$691,398
@ $277.67 · 2025-05-22
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.69M
@ $268.59 · 2025-04-28
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.76M
@ $275.94 · 2025-03-28
JOHNSON DEVIN C
Director
$110,016
@ $275.04 · 2025-03-25
JOYCE CARL G.
Officer
$99,420
@ $276.17 · 2025-03-21
BAUER JONATHAN S
Chief Investment Officer
$479,391
@ $282.66 · 2025-03-17
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$435,862
@ $282.66 · 2025-03-17
BAUER JONATHAN S
Chief Investment Officer
$344,787
@ $281.00 · 2025-03-06
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.31M
@ $279.70 · 2025-03-06
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.80M
@ $279.94 · 2025-02-28
NIEDERST LORI A
Officer
$952,416
@ $247.06 · 2025-01-30
KELLY JEFFREY D
Director
$2.50M
@ $250.00 · 2025-01-29
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.47M
@ $246.69 · 2025-01-28
BAILO KAREN
Officer
$515,775
@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22
QUIGG ANDREW J
Officer
$234,045
@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22
MARSHALL MARIANN WOJTKUN
Officer
$142,325
@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22
GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
$2.68M
@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
Officer
$553,485
@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22
BAILO KAREN
Officer
$348,140
@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03
QUIGG ANDREW J
Officer
$164,870
@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03
MARSHALL MARIANN WOJTKUN
Officer
$46,241
@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03
GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
$2.19M
@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
President
$402,612
@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.39M
@ $238.66 · 2024-12-30
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.68M
@ $268.09 · 2024-11-29
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$748,678
@ $251.15 · 2024-10-21
VAN DYKE KAHINA
Director
$549,970
@ $252.28 · 2024-09-27
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$775,320
@ $260.00 · 2024-09-23
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.96M
@ $255.21 · 2024-09-20
GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
$10.94M
@ $252.20 · 2024-09-03
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$1.44M
@ $235.19 · 2024-08-19
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.83M
@ $237.20 · 2024-08-16
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
Officer
$2.26M
@ $237.50 · 2024-08-15
BAILO KAREN
Officer
$1.69M
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$652,730
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
NIEDERST LORI A
Officer
$2.03M
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
QUIGG ANDREW J
Officer
$850,690
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
BAUER JONATHAN S
Chief Investment Officer
$527,963
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$4.86M
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.70M
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
$9.28M
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →LLY
😐Neutral(55/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
PGR
😐Neutral(42/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (55)
PGR
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (42)