Compare Stocks › LLY vs PGR

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs The Progressive Corporation (PGR): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. PGR is undervalued at $205, with an intrinsic value of $286 and a margin of safety of 28%. Of the two, PGR has the wider margin of safety.

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

$1098.57

PGR

The Progressive Corporation

$204.87

Rewards

LLY

★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

PGR

★The Progressive Corporation scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Free cash flow has grown at a 37.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $5.91 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

Risks

LLY

⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

PGR

⚠Gross margin of 18.6% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 4 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
⚠PEG ratio of 31.41 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY

PGR

Valuation

$9.16B

Free Cash Flow

$15.50B

0.93%

FCF Yield

12.97%

39.00

Trailing P/E

10.42

24.69

Forward P/E

12.64

Quality & Moat

37.80%

ROIC

28.64%

107.46%

ROE

37.90%

82.83%

Gross Margin

18.56%

1.50

PEG Ratio

31.41

Balance Sheet Safety

1.22

Net Debt / Equity

0.19

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

1.05

Net Debt / EBITDA

0.40

0.56%

Dividend Yield

0.20%

LLY: 5Ties: 1PGR: 6

LLYPGR

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

PGR

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY

$27.49

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$22.34B

Δ Market Cap

+$614.01B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

PGR

$2.90

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$19.86B

Δ Market Cap

+$57.60B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY

3.9% Margin of Safety

Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $1098.57

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $1143.11

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

PGR

28.4% Margin of Safety

Price is 28.4% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $204.87

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $286.23

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

+20.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +31.4%

The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

PGR

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $205?

-0.4%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies -4.9%

The market implies -0.4% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding -4.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY

73/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

PGR

99/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY

-1.83

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

PGR

-2.65

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%

No. of Institutional Holders5,580

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

PGR

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 90.3%Retail & Other 9.4%

No. of Institutional Holders2,404

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $4.54M

MONTARCE LUCAS E

Chief Financial Officer

$494,627

@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15

VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.

Officer

$647,360

@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13

ALVAREZ RALPH

Director

$500,473

@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13

FYRWALD J. ERIK

Director

$1.01M

@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12

RICKS DAVID A

Chief Executive Officer

$1.05M

@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12

SKOVRONSKY DANIEL

Officer

$634,405

@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12

SULZBERGER GABRIELLE

Director

$75,018

@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12

JACKSON JAMERE

Director

$127,913

@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

PGR

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $3.86B

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$2.88M

@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$15.75M

@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$322.38M

@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$1.51M

@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.90M

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$2.85M

@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260,409

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.08M

@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$17.34M

@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$152.06M

@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$111.50M

@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$39.07M

@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$176.10M

@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$62.31M

@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$10.19M

@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$183.33M

@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$1.01M

@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$48.02M

@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$308.41M

@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$279.35M

@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$16.41M

@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$167.09M

@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$38.47M

@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$479,038

@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$266.65M

@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260.17M

@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.16M

@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$9.04M

@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.23M

@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$22.72M

@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$137.04M

@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.22M

@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$92.50M

@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$107.36M

@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$177.29M

@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.79M

@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$18.06M

@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$81.53M

@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$734,930

@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$783,762

@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$225.42M

@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$716,410

@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$936,550

@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

PGR

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $43.04M

BROZ STEVEN

Chief Technology Officer

$231,400

@ $200.00 · 2026-06-05

MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH

Officer

$1.18M

@ $200.00 · 2026-06-05

JOHNSON DEVIN C

Director

$199,038

@ $203.10 · 2026-04-16

JOYCE CARL G.

Officer

$55,754

@ $206.50 · 2026-03-20

BAILO KAREN

Officer

$745,604

@ $212.00 · 2026-03-05

JOYCE CARL G.

Officer

$29,892

@ $212.00 · 2026-03-05

PUMAREJO MARIBEL

Officer

$150,138

@ $203.44 · 2026-02-24

BAUER JONATHAN S

Chief Investment Officer

$460,111

@ $203.05 · 2026-02-23

QUIGG ANDREW J

Officer

$336,973

@ $204.35 · 2026-01-21

BAUER JONATHAN S

Chief Investment Officer

$634,507

@ $204.35 · 2026-01-21

BROZ STEVEN

Chief Technology Officer

$302,131

@ $224.80 · 2025-12-19

SAUERLAND JOHN PETER

Chief Financial Officer

$1.14M

@ $228.48 · 2025-11-28

BROZ STEVEN

Chief Technology Officer

$307,050

@ $228.29 · 2025-11-21

BROZ STEVEN

Chief Technology Officer

$295,900

@ $220.00 · 2025-11-11

BROZ STEVEN

Chief Technology Officer

$325,624

@ $242.10 · 2025-09-19

CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN

Officer

$1.56M

@ $242.22 · 2025-09-19

MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH

Officer

$536,978

@ $242.10 · 2025-09-19

GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA

Chief Executive Officer

$7.54M

@ $246.06 · 2025-09-02

BROZ STEVEN

Chief Technology Officer

$337,299

@ $250.78 · 2025-08-22

CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN

Officer

$1.56M

@ $249.96 · 2025-08-22

MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH

Officer

$556,230

@ $250.78 · 2025-08-22

NIEDERST LORI A

Officer

$2.02M

@ $250.18 · 2025-08-14

CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN

Officer

$1.51M

@ $242.16 · 2025-07-28

QUIGG ANDREW J

Officer

$795,325

@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28

BAUER JONATHAN S

Chief Investment Officer

$595,933

@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28

BAILO KAREN

Officer

$2.22M

@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28

SAUERLAND JOHN PETER

Chief Financial Officer

$4.15M

@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28

MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH

President

$552,814

@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28

GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA

Chief Executive Officer

$7.42M

@ $242.12 · 2025-07-28

BROZ STEVEN

Chief Technology Officer

$313,633

@ $247.54 · 2025-07-18

SAUERLAND JOHN PETER

Chief Financial Officer

$2.64M

@ $263.79 · 2025-06-30

BROZ STEVEN

Chief Technology Officer

$329,901

@ $260.38 · 2025-06-20

MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH

Officer

$1.04M

@ $260.38 · 2025-06-20

BURGDOERFER STUART B

Director

$958,643

@ $260.43 · 2025-06-20

SAUERLAND JOHN PETER

Chief Financial Officer

$2.75M

@ $275.37 · 2025-05-28

BROZ STEVEN

Chief Technology Officer

$351,985

@ $277.81 · 2025-05-23

VAN DYKE KAHINA

Director

$691,398

@ $277.67 · 2025-05-22

SAUERLAND JOHN PETER

Chief Financial Officer

$2.69M

@ $268.59 · 2025-04-28

SAUERLAND JOHN PETER

Chief Financial Officer

$2.76M

@ $275.94 · 2025-03-28

JOHNSON DEVIN C

Director

$110,016

@ $275.04 · 2025-03-25

JOYCE CARL G.

Officer

$99,420

@ $276.17 · 2025-03-21

BAUER JONATHAN S

Chief Investment Officer

$479,391

@ $282.66 · 2025-03-17

SAUERLAND JOHN PETER

Chief Financial Officer

$435,862

@ $282.66 · 2025-03-17

CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN

Officer

$1.31M

@ $279.70 · 2025-03-06

BAUER JONATHAN S

Chief Investment Officer

$344,787

@ $281.00 · 2025-03-06

SAUERLAND JOHN PETER

Chief Financial Officer

$2.80M

@ $279.94 · 2025-02-28

NIEDERST LORI A

Officer

$952,416

@ $247.06 · 2025-01-30

KELLY JEFFREY D

Director

$2.50M

@ $250.00 · 2025-01-29

SAUERLAND JOHN PETER

Chief Financial Officer

$2.47M

@ $246.69 · 2025-01-28

BAILO KAREN

Officer

$515,775

@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22

QUIGG ANDREW J

Officer

$234,045

@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22

MARSHALL MARIANN WOJTKUN

Officer

$142,325

@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22

MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH

Officer

$553,485

@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22

GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA

Chief Executive Officer

$2.68M

@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22

BAILO KAREN

Officer

$348,140

@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03

QUIGG ANDREW J

Officer

$164,870

@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03

MARSHALL MARIANN WOJTKUN

Officer

$46,241

@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03

MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH

President

$402,612

@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03

GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA

Chief Executive Officer

$2.19M

@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03

SAUERLAND JOHN PETER

Chief Financial Officer

$2.39M

@ $238.66 · 2024-12-30

SAUERLAND JOHN PETER

Chief Financial Officer

$2.68M

@ $268.09 · 2024-11-29

BROZ STEVEN

Chief Technology Officer

$748,678

@ $251.15 · 2024-10-21

VAN DYKE KAHINA

Director

$549,970

@ $252.28 · 2024-09-27

BROZ STEVEN

Chief Technology Officer

$775,320

@ $260.00 · 2024-09-23

CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN

Officer

$1.96M

@ $255.21 · 2024-09-20

GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA

Chief Executive Officer

$10.94M

@ $252.20 · 2024-09-03

BROZ STEVEN

Chief Technology Officer

$1.44M

@ $235.19 · 2024-08-19

CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN

Officer

$1.83M

@ $237.20 · 2024-08-16

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →

LLY

😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

PGR

😐Neutral(52/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)

PGR

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (52)

View LLY Full Analysis View PGR Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs PGR

Is Eli Lilly and Company or The Progressive Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, PGR trades at a 28.4% margin of safety (intrinsic value $286 vs. price $205), compared to LLY's 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $1143 vs. $1099).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or The Progressive Corporation?▼

PGR scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is The Progressive Corporation in financial distress?▼

PGR's Altman Z-Score of 1.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or The Progressive Corporation?▼

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) generates a 13.0% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or The Progressive Corporation?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus PGR's 28.6%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or The Progressive Corporation's?▼

PGR's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). PGR has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.