Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) vs United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)
Rewards
- ★Johnson & Johnson has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Gross margin of 68.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Johnson & Johnson scores 90/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★United Parcel Service, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★United Parcel Service, Inc. scores 72/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
Risks
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 26.0x is 30% above the historical average of 20.0x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.95 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠7 insider sales totaling $58.4M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠Gross margin of 22.4% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠FCF yield of 5.7% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 20.1% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $224?
The market implies +8.6% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +13.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $96?
The market implies +6.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.
Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.