Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) vs Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Rewards
- ★Share count has been reduced by 11% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $7.48 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Gross margin of 75.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Dividend yield of 6.28% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.
- ★FCF yield of 8.6% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
Risks
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 44.7x is 70% above the historical average of 26.3x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 13.7% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 13.9 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 29.6% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $133?
The market implies +12.1% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +14.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $27?
The market implies +11.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.