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ConocoPhillips (COP) vs Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, COP is fairly valued at $120, with a DCF intrinsic value of $113 and a margin of safety of -7%. GOOGL is overvalued at $356, with an intrinsic value of $102 and a margin of safety of -250%. Of the two, COP has the wider margin of safety.

COP
ConocoPhillips
$120.48
VS
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
$356.13

Rewards

COP
    GOOGL
    • ★Alphabet Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
    • ★Gross margin of 60.9% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
    • ★Alphabet Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

    Risks

    COP
    • ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
    • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
    • ⚠Trailing P/E of 20.4x is 69% above the historical average of 12.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
    GOOGL
    • ⚠FCF yield of 1.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    COP
    GOOGL
    Valuation
    $7.24B
    Free Cash Flow
    $73.27B
    4.93%
    FCF Yield
    1.68%
    20.42
    Trailing P/E
    17.86
    13.38
    Forward P/E
    24.17
    Quality & Moat
    11.77%
    ROIC
    15.75%
    11.28%
    ROE
    48.68%
    45.59%
    Gross Margin
    60.90%
    1.02
    PEG Ratio
    0.97
    Balance Sheet Safety
    0.26
    Net Debt / Equity
    Net cash
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    0.73
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    -0.70
    2.79%
    Dividend Yield
    0.25%
    COP: 3Ties: 1GOOGL: 8
    COPGOOGL

    Historical Fundamentals

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    COP

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    GOOGL

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    COP
    $-1.99
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $14.97B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-29.73B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    GOOGL
    $9.18
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $288.67B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$2.65T
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    COP
    39.4% Overvalued
    Price is 39.4% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $120.48
    Fair Value: $86.45
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    GOOGL
    250.3% Overvalued
    Price is 250.3% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $356.13
    Fair Value: $101.66
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    COP

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $120?

    +8.1%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +9.4%

    The market implies +8.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    GOOGL

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $356?

    +22.2%
    Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

    Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.

    Economic Moat Score

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    COP
    38/100
    No Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    No durable moat detected, though roic consistency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    GOOGL
    89/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    COP
    -2.89
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    GOOGL
    -2.92
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    COP
    Insiders 0.1%Institutions 87.3%Retail & Other 12.6%
    No. of Institutional Holders3,062
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    GOOGL
    Insiders 1.2%Institutions 80.3%Retail & Other 18.6%
    No. of Institutional Holders7,325
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    COP
    0
    Buys (3M)
    1
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $500,000
    MCRAVEN WILLIAM H.
    Director
    $500,000
    @ $86.69 · 2025-11-10
    JOHNSON KIRK L
    Officer
    $499,472
    @ $94.24 · 2025-06-16
    MURTI ARJUN N
    Director
    $239,675
    @ $95.87 · 2024-12-20
    WALKER R A
    Director
    $1.02M
    @ $97.80 · 2024-12-17
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    GOOGL
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    COP
    1
    Sells (3M)
    12
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $127.52M
    MULLIGAN SHARMILA
    Director
    $234,906
    @ $119.00 · 2026-06-10
    ROSE KELLY BRUNETTI
    General Counsel
    $1.00M
    @ $130.03 · 2026-03-24
    OLDS NICHOLAS G
    Officer
    $888,651
    @ $127.06 · 2026-03-23
    LANCE RYAN MICHAEL
    Chief Executive Officer
    $64.49M
    @ $127.26 · 2026-03-20
    LUNDQUIST ANDREW D
    Officer
    $4.13M
    @ $119.68 · 2026-03-13
    HRAP HEATHER GRACE
    Officer
    $317,631
    @ $119.68 · 2026-03-13
    OLDS NICHOLAS G
    Officer
    $1.73M
    @ $119.36 · 2026-03-12
    HAYNES-WELSH KONTESSA S.
    Officer
    $1.24M
    @ $120.07 · 2026-03-12
    OLDS NICHOLAS G
    Officer
    $1.41M
    @ $116.37 · 2026-03-11
    ROSE KELLY BRUNETTI
    General Counsel
    $1.00M
    @ $118.04 · 2026-03-09
    LEACH TIMOTHY ALLEN
    Director
    $4.75M
    @ $118.79 · 2026-03-06
    LANCE RYAN MICHAEL
    Chief Executive Officer
    $46.32M
    @ $92.50 · 2025-12-19
    LEACH TIMOTHY ALLEN
    Director
    $6.00M
    @ $108.11 · 2024-08-13
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    GOOGL
    0
    Sells (3M)
    0
    Sells (12M)
    No open market insider sales found.
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    COP
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(61/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    GOOGL
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(56/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    COP
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
    GOOGL
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
    View COP Full AnalysisView GOOGL Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: COP vs GOOGL

    Is ConocoPhillips or Alphabet Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, COP trades at a -6.6% margin of safety (intrinsic value $113 vs. price $120), compared to GOOGL's -250.3% margin of safety (intrinsic $102 vs. $356).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, ConocoPhillips or Alphabet Inc.?▼

    GOOGL scores 89/100 (Wide moat), while COP scores 38/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is Alphabet Inc. in financial distress?▼

    GOOGL's Altman Z-Score of 2.4 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. COP scores 2.8 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which company has better free cash flow, ConocoPhillips or Alphabet Inc.?▼

    ConocoPhillips (COP) generates a 4.9% free cash flow yield, compared to Alphabet Inc.'s 1.7%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, ConocoPhillips or Alphabet Inc.?▼

    GOOGL earns 15.7% ROIC versus COP's 11.8%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, ConocoPhillips's or Alphabet Inc.'s?▼

    GOOGL's dividend earns a safety score of 88/100 (Very Safe), compared to COP's 78/100 (Safe). GOOGL has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.