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Compare Stocks › DE vs UNP

Deere & Company (DE) vs Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

DE
Deere & Company
$577.26
VS
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
$266.32

Rewards

DE
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 52.5% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Dividend yield of 1.12% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.
UNP
  • ★Union Pacific Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Union Pacific Corporation scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

DE
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 32.6x is 83% above the historical average of 17.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠High leverage (3.76x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
UNP
  • ⚠Each dollar of retained earnings has produced only $0.15 of earning power — shareholders may have been better served by dividends.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 3.54 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $8.5M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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DE
UNP
Valuation
$4.20B
Free Cash Flow
$5.50B
2.69%
FCF Yield
3.48%
32.58
Trailing P/E
21.94
25.08
Forward P/E
19.46
Quality & Moat
10.52%
ROIC
15.46%
39.00%
ROE
36.76%
26.25%
Gross Margin
56.53%
1.74
PEG Ratio
3.54
Balance Sheet Safety
3.76
Debt / Equity
1.62
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
4.62
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.42
1.12%
Dividend Yield
2.07%
DE: 2Ties: 1UNP: 9
DEUNP

Historical Fundamentals

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DE

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

UNP

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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DE
$-0.13
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$17.54B
Δ Market Cap
$-2.23B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNP
$0.98
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Mediocre Allocator
Σ Retained
$10.64B
Δ Market Cap
+$10.42B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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DE
49.6% Margin of Safety
Price is 49.6% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $577.26
Fair Value: $1146.48
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNP
17.9% Overvalued
Price is 17.9% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $266.32
Fair Value: $225.93
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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DE

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $577?

+16.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +19.2%

The market implies +16.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +19.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

UNP

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $266?

+11.5%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +15.0%

The market implies +11.5% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +15.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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DE
50/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
UNP
80/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by margin stability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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DE
-2.52
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNP
-2.61
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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DE
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 82.8%Retail & Other 17.1%
No. of Institutional Holders3,194
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNP
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 89.0%Retail & Other 10.9%
No. of Institutional Holders3,420
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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DE
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNP
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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DE
0
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $32.47M
REED CORY J.
Officer
$6.12M
@ $510.00 · 2026-01-14
MAY JOHN C. II
Chief Executive Officer
$20.80M
@ $501.49 · 2026-01-08
MAY JOHN C. II
Chief Executive Officer
$5.55M
@ $500.08 · 2025-11-25
KALATHUR RAJESH
Chief Technology Officer
$12.30M
@ $500.61 · 2025-02-18
REED CORY J.
Officer
$5.05M
@ $377.63 · 2024-06-24
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNP
3
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $8.46M
HAMANN JENNIFER L
Chief Financial Officer
$549,400
@ $274.70 · 2026-04-24
ROCKER KENYATTA G.
Officer
$7.44M
@ $271.76 · 2026-04-24
GEHRINGER ERIC J.
Officer
$469,625
@ $234.93 · 2026-03-20
RICHARDSON CRAIG V
Officer
$1.64M
@ $252.00 · 2025-01-27
WHITED ELIZABETH F.
President
$1.88M
@ $250.00 · 2025-01-24
WHITED ELIZABETH F.
President
$875,905
@ $246.59 · 2024-07-30
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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DE
FearGreed
😐Neutral(51/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNP
FearGreed
😏Greed(65/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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DE
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (51)
UNP
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (65)
View DE Full AnalysisView UNP Full Analysis