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Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) vs Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW)

COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
$974.78
VS
LOW
Lowe's Companies, Inc.
$229.71

Rewards

COST
  • ★Costco Wholesale Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Costco Wholesale Corporation scores 96/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 30.8% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
LOW
  • ★Lowe's Companies, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Lowe's Companies, Inc. scores 84/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 16% over the past 5 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.

Risks

COST
  • ⚠Gross margin of 12.9% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 1.5% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
LOW
  • ⚠Each dollar of retained earnings has produced only $0.11 of market value — shareholders may have been better served by dividends.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $7.4M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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COST
LOW
Valuation
$6.69B
Free Cash Flow
$5.40B
1.55%
FCF Yield
4.19%
50.77
Trailing P/E
19.38
43.44
Forward P/E
16.79
Quality & Moat
20.95%
ROIC
12.66%
25.24%
ROE
N/A
12.93%
Gross Margin
33.48%
3.65
PEG Ratio
N/A
Balance Sheet Safety
0.26
Debt / Equity
N/A
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
-0.74
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.51
0.53%
Dividend Yield
2.09%
COST: 3Ties: 1LOW: 5
COSTLOW

Historical Fundamentals

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COST

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

LOW

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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COST
$19.41
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$9.28B
Δ Market Cap
+$180.14B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
LOW
$0.11
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Destroyer
Σ Retained
$13.65B
Δ Market Cap
+$1.56B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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COST
111.4% Overvalued
Price is 111.4% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $974.78
Fair Value: $461.18
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
LOW
67.1% Overvalued
Price is 67.1% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $229.71
Fair Value: $137.43
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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COST

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $975?

+20.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +23.4%

The market implies +20.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +23.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

LOW

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $230?

+14.1%
Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.

Economic Moat Score

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COST
96/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
LOW
84/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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COST
-2.65
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
LOW
-2.80
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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COST
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 72.7%Retail & Other 27.2%
No. of Institutional Holders4,997
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
LOW
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 80.7%Retail & Other 19.2%
No. of Institutional Holders3,354
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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COST
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
LOW
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $231,063
SIMKINS LAWRENCE
Director
$231,063
@ $231.06 · 2025-11-24
SIMKINS LAWRENCE
Director
$245,532
@ $245.53 · 2024-12-20
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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COST
5
Sells (3M)
17
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $28.85M
ADAMO CLAUDINE
Officer
$732,205
@ $1003.02 · 2026-03-09
JONES TERESA A
Officer
$838,318
@ $986.26 · 2026-01-21
DECKER SUSAN LYNNE
Director
$437,390
@ $955.00 · 2026-01-16
KLAUER JAMES C
Officer
$1.41M
@ $939.00 · 2026-01-14
POLIT JAVIER
Officer
$2.26M
@ $866.38 · 2025-12-30
WILCOX WILLIAM RICHARD
Officer
$2.23M
@ $930.13 · 2025-11-07
ADAMO CLAUDINE
Officer
$2.53M
@ $935.68 · 2025-10-24
BARBRE TIFFANY MARIE
Divisional Officer
$1.16M
@ $934.91 · 2025-10-24
FRATES CATON
Officer
$1.40M
@ $910.02 · 2025-09-29
JONES TERESA A
Officer
$595,230
@ $992.05 · 2025-08-20
RUBANENKO YORAM B.
Officer
$3.90M
@ $974.96 · 2025-07-14
DECKER SUSAN LYNNE
Director
$536,058
@ $980.00 · 2025-06-18
CALLANS PATRICK J
Officer
$3.01M
@ $1002.77 · 2025-06-09
RIEL PIERRE
Officer
$2.03M
@ $1014.15 · 2025-06-06
KLAUER JAMES C
Officer
$3.92M
@ $981.07 · 2025-04-17
MILLERCHIP GARY
Officer
$1.03M
@ $940.01 · 2025-03-27
ADAMO CLAUDINE
Officer
$830,304
@ $922.56 · 2025-03-24
FRATES CATON
Officer
$765,213
@ $900.25 · 2025-03-18
VACHRIS ROLAND MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$3.35M
@ $931.00 · 2025-03-11
GALANTI RICHARD ALAN
Officer and Director
$1.27M
@ $894.97 · 2024-10-24
JONES TERESA A
Officer
$717,236
@ $896.54 · 2024-10-23
RIEL PIERRE
Officer
$1.79M
@ $896.71 · 2024-10-15
CALLANS PATRICK J
Officer
$2.23M
@ $893.94 · 2024-09-30
ADAMO CLAUDINE
Officer
$2.84M
@ $888.99 · 2024-09-30
FRATES CATON
Officer
$1.50M
@ $883.35 · 2024-09-30
DECKER SUSAN LYNNE
Director
$543,430
@ $876.50 · 2024-08-15
GALANTI RICHARD ALAN
Officer and Director
$868,962
@ $868.96 · 2024-08-15
JONES TERESA A
Officer
$3,330
@ $832.50 · 2024-07-25
DENMAN KENNETH D
Director
$298,036
@ $851.53 · 2024-07-15
HINES DANIEL M
Officer
$2.54M
@ $846.37 · 2024-07-15
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
LOW
2
Sells (3M)
8
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $32.92M
VANCE QUONTA D
Officer
$2.67M
@ $257.54 · 2026-03-04
ELLISON MARVIN R
Chief Executive Officer
$4.70M
@ $261.17 · 2026-01-09
MCFARLAND JOSEPH MICHAEL III
Officer
$11.94M
@ $272.60 · 2025-09-11
SINK BRANDON J.
Chief Financial Officer
$2.20M
@ $268.58 · 2025-09-05
PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMS
Officer
$238,939
@ $257.20 · 2025-08-26
ELLISON MARVIN R
Chief Executive Officer
$10.56M
@ $264.10 · 2025-08-20
DUPRE JANICE M.
Officer
$350,039
@ $224.38 · 2025-06-10
PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMS
Officer
$257,077
@ $227.50 · 2025-06-03
VANCE QUONTA D
Officer
$1.97M
@ $274.37 · 2024-11-27
MCFARLAND JOSEPH MICHAEL III
Officer
$1.08M
@ $270.74 · 2024-10-03
GODBOLE SEEMANTINI P
Chief Technology Officer
$7.12M
@ $271.73 · 2024-10-03
VAGELL MARGRETHE R
Officer
$1.56M
@ $271.45 · 2024-10-02
GRIGGS DAN CLAYTON JR.
Officer
$1.68M
@ $248.82 · 2024-09-12
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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COST
FearGreed
😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
LOW
FearGreed
😨Fear(38/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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COST
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
LOW
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (38)
View COST Full AnalysisView LOW Full Analysis
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) vs Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) Stock Comparison | SafetyMargin.io