ConocoPhillips (COP) vs Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
Rewards
- ★ConocoPhillips has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Gross margin of 77.2% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Dividend yield of 2.98% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.
- ★Management has timed buybacks well — 2 out of 3 years showed value-accretive repurchases.
Risks
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 19.8x is 65% above the historical average of 12.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠7 insider sales totaling $14.6M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 26.4% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
- ⚠12 insider sales totaling $40.7M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 5.6% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $126?
The market implies +8.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $114?
The market implies +5.8% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.
Standard FCF implies +11.7%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.