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ConocoPhillips (COP) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, COP is fairly valued at $120, with a DCF intrinsic value of $113 and a margin of safety of -7%. LLY is undervalued at $1149, with an intrinsic value of $1529604356065 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

COP
ConocoPhillips
$120.48
VS
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1148.84

Rewards

COP
    LLY
    • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
    • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
    • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

    Risks

    COP
    • ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
    • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
    • ⚠Trailing P/E of 20.4x is 69% above the historical average of 12.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
    LLY
    • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    COP
    LLY
    Valuation
    $7.24B
    Free Cash Flow
    $9.16B
    4.93%
    FCF Yield
    N/A
    20.42
    Trailing P/E
    40.81
    13.38
    Forward P/E
    25.48
    Quality & Moat
    11.77%
    ROIC
    37.80%
    11.28%
    ROE
    107.46%
    45.59%
    Gross Margin
    82.83%
    1.02
    PEG Ratio
    1.61
    Balance Sheet Safety
    0.26
    Net Debt / Equity
    1.22
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    0.73
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.05
    2.79%
    Dividend Yield
    0.60%
    COP: 6Ties: 1LLY: 4
    COPLLY

    Historical Fundamentals

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    COP

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    LLY

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    COP
    $-1.99
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $14.97B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-29.73B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    LLY
    $0.00
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Value Destroyer
    Σ Retained
    $22.34B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$708.84
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    COP
    39.4% Overvalued
    Price is 39.4% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $120.48
    Fair Value: $86.45
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    LLY
    100.0% Margin of Safety
    Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $1148.84
    Fair Value: $1529604356065.14
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    COP

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $120?

    +8.1%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +9.4%

    The market implies +8.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    LLY

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1149?

    -30.0%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies -15.1%

    The market implies -30.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

    Standard FCF implies a more demanding -15.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

    Economic Moat Score

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    COP
    38/100
    No Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    No durable moat detected, though roic consistency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    LLY
    73/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    COP
    -2.89
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    LLY
    -1.83
    Possible Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    COP
    Insiders 0.1%Institutions 87.3%Retail & Other 12.6%
    No. of Institutional Holders3,062
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    LLY
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.1%Retail & Other 14.8%
    No. of Institutional Holders5,685
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    COP
    0
    Buys (3M)
    1
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $500,000
    MCRAVEN WILLIAM H.
    Director
    $500,000
    @ $86.69 · 2025-11-10
    JOHNSON KIRK L
    Officer
    $499,472
    @ $94.24 · 2025-06-16
    MURTI ARJUN N
    Director
    $239,675
    @ $95.87 · 2024-12-20
    WALKER R A
    Director
    $1.02M
    @ $97.80 · 2024-12-17
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    LLY
    0
    Buys (3M)
    8
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $4.54M
    MONTARCE LUCAS E
    Chief Financial Officer
    $494,627
    @ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
    ALVAREZ RALPH
    Director
    $500,473
    @ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
    VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
    Officer
    $647,360
    @ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
    SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
    Director
    $75,018
    @ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
    FYRWALD J. ERIK
    Director
    $1.01M
    @ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
    RICKS DAVID A
    Chief Executive Officer
    $1.05M
    @ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
    SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
    Officer
    $634,405
    @ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
    JACKSON JAMERE
    Director
    $127,913
    @ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    COP
    1
    Sells (3M)
    12
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $127.52M
    MULLIGAN SHARMILA
    Director
    $234,906
    @ $119.00 · 2026-06-10
    ROSE KELLY BRUNETTI
    General Counsel
    $1.00M
    @ $130.03 · 2026-03-24
    OLDS NICHOLAS G
    Officer
    $888,651
    @ $127.06 · 2026-03-23
    LANCE RYAN MICHAEL
    Chief Executive Officer
    $64.49M
    @ $127.26 · 2026-03-20
    LUNDQUIST ANDREW D
    Officer
    $4.13M
    @ $119.68 · 2026-03-13
    HRAP HEATHER GRACE
    Officer
    $317,631
    @ $119.68 · 2026-03-13
    OLDS NICHOLAS G
    Officer
    $1.73M
    @ $119.36 · 2026-03-12
    HAYNES-WELSH KONTESSA S.
    Officer
    $1.24M
    @ $120.07 · 2026-03-12
    OLDS NICHOLAS G
    Officer
    $1.41M
    @ $116.37 · 2026-03-11
    ROSE KELLY BRUNETTI
    General Counsel
    $1.00M
    @ $118.04 · 2026-03-09
    LEACH TIMOTHY ALLEN
    Director
    $4.75M
    @ $118.79 · 2026-03-06
    LANCE RYAN MICHAEL
    Chief Executive Officer
    $46.32M
    @ $92.50 · 2025-12-19
    LEACH TIMOTHY ALLEN
    Director
    $6.00M
    @ $108.11 · 2024-08-13
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    LLY
    2
    Sells (3M)
    40
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $3.63B
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $2.88M
    @ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $15.75M
    @ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $322.38M
    @ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $1.51M
    @ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $3.90M
    @ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $2.85M
    @ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $260,409
    @ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $161.08M
    @ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $17.34M
    @ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $152.06M
    @ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $111.50M
    @ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $39.07M
    @ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $176.10M
    @ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $62.31M
    @ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $10.19M
    @ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $183.80M
    @ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $1.01M
    @ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $48.02M
    @ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $308.41M
    @ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $279.35M
    @ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $16.41M
    @ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $167.09M
    @ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $38.47M
    @ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $479,038
    @ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $266.65M
    @ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $260.17M
    @ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $3.16M
    @ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $9.04M
    @ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $86.23M
    @ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $22.72M
    @ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $137.04M
    @ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $161.22M
    @ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $92.50M
    @ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $107.36M
    @ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $177.29M
    @ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $86.79M
    @ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $18.06M
    @ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $81.53M
    @ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $734,930
    @ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $783,762
    @ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $225.42M
    @ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $716,410
    @ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

    Learn more →
    COP
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(61/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    LLY
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(59/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    COP
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
    LLY
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)
    View COP Full AnalysisView LLY Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: COP vs LLY

    Is ConocoPhillips or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1529604356065 vs. price $1149), compared to COP's -6.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $113 vs. $120).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, ConocoPhillips or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

    LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while COP scores 38/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is Eli Lilly and Company in financial distress?▼

    LLY's Altman Z-Score of 2.0 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. COP scores 2.8 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, ConocoPhillips or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

    LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus COP's 11.8%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, ConocoPhillips's or Eli Lilly and Company's?▼

    COP's dividend earns a safety score of 78/100 (Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). COP has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.