Compare Stocks › COP vs HD

ConocoPhillips (COP) vs The Home Depot, Inc. (HD): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, COP is fairly valued at $108, with a DCF intrinsic value of $113 and a margin of safety of 5%. HD is overvalued at $334, with an intrinsic value of $250 and a margin of safety of -34%. Of the two, COP has the wider margin of safety.

COP

ConocoPhillips

$107.74

The Home Depot, Inc.

$334.28

Rewards

COP

★PEG ratio of 0.94 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.

★The Home Depot, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★The Home Depot, Inc. scores 87/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

COP

⚠ROIC has declined by 17.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
⚠FCF yield of 5.5% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

⚠High leverage (4.48x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠11 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

Key Valuation Metrics

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COP

Valuation

$7.24B

Free Cash Flow

$10.13B

5.52%

FCF Yield

3.04%

18.26

Trailing P/E

23.72

11.72

Forward P/E

20.75

Quality & Moat

11.77%

ROIC

20.22%

11.28%

ROE

128.38%

45.59%

Gross Margin

33.13%

0.94

PEG Ratio

1.90

Balance Sheet Safety

0.26

Net Debt / Equity

4.48

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

0.73

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.49

3.02%

Dividend Yield

2.76%

COP: 8Ties: 1HD: 3

COPHD

Historical Fundamentals

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COP

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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COP

$-1.99

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$14.97B

Δ Market Cap

$-29.73B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

$-1.09

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$17.64B

Δ Market Cap

$-19.32B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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COP

24.6% Overvalued

Price is 24.6% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $107.74

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $86.45

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

33.5% Overvalued

Price is 33.5% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $334.28

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $250.30

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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COP

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $108?

+6.7%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +8.0%

The market implies +6.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $334?

+11.8%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +16.8%

The market implies +11.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +16.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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COP

38/100

No Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though roic consistency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

87/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Margin Stability is the standout factor.

Forensic Accounting

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COP

-2.89

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

-2.40

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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COP

Insiders 0.1%Institutions 87.6%Retail & Other 12.3%

No. of Institutional Holders3,171

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insiders 0.1%Institutions 76.1%Retail & Other 23.8%

No. of Institutional Holders5,106

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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COP

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $500,000

MCRAVEN WILLIAM H.

Director

$500,000

@ $86.69 · 2025-11-10

JOHNSON KIRK L

Officer

$499,472

@ $94.24 · 2025-06-16

MURTI ARJUN N

Director

$239,675

@ $95.87 · 2024-12-20

WALKER R A

Director

$1.02M

@ $97.80 · 2024-12-17

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

BRENNEMAN GREGORY D

Director

$999,767

@ $346.66 · 2025-03-14

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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COP

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $127.52M

MULLIGAN SHARMILA

Director

$234,906

@ $119.00 · 2026-06-10

ROSE KELLY BRUNETTI

General Counsel

$1.00M

@ $130.03 · 2026-03-24

OLDS NICHOLAS G

Officer

$888,651

@ $127.06 · 2026-03-23

LANCE RYAN MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$64.49M

@ $127.26 · 2026-03-20

HRAP HEATHER G.

Officer

$317,631

@ $119.68 · 2026-03-13

LUNDQUIST ANDREW D

Officer

$4.13M

@ $119.68 · 2026-03-13

OLDS NICHOLAS G

Officer

$1.73M

@ $119.36 · 2026-03-12

HAYNES-WELSH KONTESSA S.

Officer

$1.24M

@ $120.07 · 2026-03-12

OLDS NICHOLAS G

Officer

$1.41M

@ $116.37 · 2026-03-11

ROSE KELLY BRUNETTI

General Counsel

$1.00M

@ $118.04 · 2026-03-09

LEACH TIMOTHY ALLEN

Director

$4.75M

@ $118.79 · 2026-03-06

LANCE RYAN MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$46.32M

@ $92.50 · 2025-12-19

LEACH TIMOTHY ALLEN

Director

$6.00M

@ $108.11 · 2024-08-13

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $23.56M

MCPHAIL RICHARD V

Chief Financial Officer

$940,670

@ $368.89 · 2026-03-04

DEATON JOHN A.

Officer

$661,617

@ $369.00 · 2026-03-04

ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN

General Counsel

$1.00M

@ $348.52 · 2025-12-26

BROWN ANGIE

Chief Technology Officer

$695,948

@ $357.63 · 2025-12-12

BASTEK WILLIAM D

Officer

$974,445

@ $423.12 · 2025-09-12

ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN

General Counsel

$2.27M

@ $413.23 · 2025-08-22

BASTEK WILLIAM D

Officer

$1.55M

@ $410.23 · 2025-08-22

DECKER EDWARD P.

Chief Executive Officer

$13.07M

@ $397.22 · 2025-08-21

BROWN ANGIE

Chief Technology Officer

$404,070

@ $404.07 · 2025-08-20

MCPHAIL RICHARD V

Chief Financial Officer

$1.36M

@ $403.66 · 2025-08-20

PADILLA HECTOR A

Officer

$640,609

@ $404.17 · 2025-08-20

DEATON JOHN A.

Officer

$3.29M

@ $369.99 · 2025-06-03

ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN

General Counsel

$2.00M

@ $369.28 · 2025-05-28

SIDDIQUI FAHIM

Chief Technology Officer

$954,564

@ $367.14 · 2025-05-22

BASTEK WILLIAM D

Officer

$1.24M

@ $416.61 · 2024-11-22

HOURIGAN TIMOTHY A

Officer

$6.55M

@ $409.52 · 2024-11-18

ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN

General Counsel

$9.03M

@ $408.91 · 2024-11-14

PADILLA HECTOR A

Officer

$1.48M

@ $408.96 · 2024-11-14

CAMPBELL ANN-MARIE

Officer

$12.24M

@ $408.40 · 2024-11-14

MCPHAIL RICHARD V

Chief Financial Officer

$2.65M

@ $408.45 · 2024-11-13

SCARDINO KIMBERLY R.

Officer

$617,100

@ $363.00 · 2024-08-19

ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN

General Counsel

$1.87M

@ $359.32 · 2024-08-15

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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COP

😐Neutral(46/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

😐Neutral(51/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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COP

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (46)

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (51)

View COP Full Analysis View HD Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: COP vs HD

Is ConocoPhillips or The Home Depot, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, COP trades at a 4.7% margin of safety (intrinsic value $113 vs. price $108), compared to HD's -33.5% margin of safety (intrinsic $250 vs. $334).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, ConocoPhillips or The Home Depot, Inc.?▼

HD scores 87/100 (Wide moat), while COP scores 38/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is ConocoPhillips in financial distress?▼

COP's Altman Z-Score of 2.8 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. HD scores 5.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, ConocoPhillips or The Home Depot, Inc.?▼

ConocoPhillips (COP) generates a 5.5% free cash flow yield, compared to The Home Depot, Inc.'s 3.0%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, ConocoPhillips or The Home Depot, Inc.?▼

HD earns 20.2% ROIC versus COP's 11.8%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, ConocoPhillips's or The Home Depot, Inc.'s?▼

COP's dividend earns a safety score of 78/100 (Safe), compared to HD's 69/100 (Safe). COP has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.