ConocoPhillips (COP) vs EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, COP is overvalued at $133, with a DCF intrinsic value of $116 and a margin of safety of -15%. EOG is fairly valued at $145, with an intrinsic value of $153 and a margin of safety of 5%. Of the two, EOG has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★EOG Resources, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Gross margin of 62.6% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 18.7x is 55% above the historical average of 12.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠FCF yield of 5.9% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $6.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 17.3% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $133?
The market implies +8.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $145?
Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →No durable moat detected, though roic consistency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: COP vs EOG
Is ConocoPhillips or EOG Resources, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, EOG trades at a 5.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $153 vs. price $145), compared to COP's -14.5% margin of safety (intrinsic $116 vs. $133).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, ConocoPhillips or EOG Resources, Inc.?▼
EOG scores 53/100 (Narrow moat), while COP scores 38/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is ConocoPhillips in financial distress?▼
COP's Altman Z-Score of 2.8 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. EOG scores 3.3 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, ConocoPhillips or EOG Resources, Inc.?▼
EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) generates a 5.9% free cash flow yield, compared to ConocoPhillips's 4.8%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, ConocoPhillips or EOG Resources, Inc.?▼
EOG earns 21.4% ROIC versus COP's 18.1%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, ConocoPhillips's or EOG Resources, Inc.'s?▼
COP's dividend earns a safety score of 78/100 (Safe), compared to EOG's 73/100 (Safe). COP has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.