The Boeing Company (BA) vs ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-08-05, BA is overvalued at $237, with a DCF intrinsic value of $178 and a margin of safety of -33%. XOM is undervalued at $154, with an intrinsic value of $459379071521 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, XOM has the wider margin of safety.
Risks
- ⚠Gross margin of 4.7% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠The Boeing Company scores only 23/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
- ⚠Share count has increased by 31% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 12.0 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 26.0x is 103% above the historical average of 12.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $237?
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $154?
Market below historical growth — potential opportunity.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →Insufficient data for Beneish M-Score calculation (requires 2+ years).
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: BA vs XOM
Is The Boeing Company or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, XOM trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $459379071521 vs. price $154), compared to BA's -33.2% margin of safety (intrinsic $178 vs. $237).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, The Boeing Company or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation?▼
XOM scores 48/100 (Narrow moat), while BA scores 23/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is The Boeing Company in financial distress?▼
BA's Altman Z-Score of 1.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. XOM scores 2.5 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, The Boeing Company or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation?▼
XOM earns 14.7% ROIC versus BA's 0.0%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, The Boeing Company's or ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's?▼
BA's dividend earns a safety score of 70/100 (Safe), compared to XOM's 69/100 (Safe). BA has raised its dividend for 0 consecutive years.