Compare Stocks › AXP vs PGR
American Express Company (AXP) vs The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
AXP
American Express Company
$294.93
VS
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
$202.68
Rewards
AXP
- ★Gross margin of 63.5% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $6.18 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
PGR
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 37.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.90 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Management has timed buybacks well — 3 out of 4 years showed value-accretive repurchases.
Risks
AXP
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.93 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠7 insider sales totaling $36.4M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 5.9% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
PGR
- ⚠Gross margin of 18.5% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
- ⚠6 insider sales totaling $2.4M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →AXP
PGR
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$17.20B
N/A
FCF Yield
14.48%
19.19
Trailing P/E
10.54
14.64
Forward P/E
12.54
Quality & Moat
9.49%
ROIC
30.52%
31.97%
ROE
37.29%
63.47%
Gross Margin
18.55%
1.16
PEG Ratio
0.42
Balance Sheet Safety
1.91
Debt / Equity
0.23
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.20
1.29%
Dividend Yield
6.86%
AXP: 1Ties: 1PGR: 7
AXPPGR
Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →AXP
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
PGR
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →AXP
$6.18
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$23.29B
Δ Market Cap
+$144.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
PGR
$2.90
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$19.86B
Δ Market Cap
+$57.60B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →AXP
38.6% Margin of Safety
Price is 38.6% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $294.93
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $480.21
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
PGR
32.6% Margin of Safety
Price is 32.6% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $202.68
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $300.63
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →AXP
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
PGR
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $203?
-1.5%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -7.6%
The market implies -1.5% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding -7.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →AXP
40/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
PGR
40/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →AXP
-2.51
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
PGR
-2.65
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →AXP
Insiders 22.2%Institutions 64.8%Retail & Other 12.9%
No. of Institutional Holders3,749
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
PGR
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 88.5%Retail & Other 11.2%
No. of Institutional Holders2,451
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →AXP
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4,054
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$4,054
@ $176.26 · 2025-04-09
ANGELAKIS MICHAEL J
Director
$998,593
@ $269.89 · 2025-03-07
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
PGR
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →AXP
7
Sells (3M)
20
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $152.65M
LIEBERMAN QUINN JESSICA
Officer
$909,661
@ $300.02 · 2026-03-06
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$4.77M
@ $340.67 · 2026-02-19
GROSFIELD HOWARD M
Officer
$2.82M
@ $346.73 · 2026-02-12
RADHAKRISHNAN RAVIKUMAR S
Chief Technology Officer
$5.35M
@ $356.58 · 2026-02-09
SEEGER LAUREEN E
Officer
$4.60M
@ $360.99 · 2026-02-09
MARRS ANNA
Officer
$9.60M
@ $350.01 · 2026-02-05
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$8.35M
@ $356.91 · 2026-02-05
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$538,902
@ $384.93 · 2025-12-12
RUTLEDGE ELIZABETH
Officer
$18.01M
@ $360.21 · 2025-10-31
TABISH DOUGLAS J
Officer
$894,359
@ $355.61 · 2025-10-23
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$1.75M
@ $350.73 · 2025-10-22
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$37.03M
@ $329.86 · 2025-09-04
HERENA MONIQUE
Officer
$2.83M
@ $325.88 · 2025-09-03
BUCKMINSTER DOUGLAS E
Officer
$7.67M
@ $326.37 · 2025-09-02
SEEGER LAUREEN E
Officer
$23.37M
@ $296.90 · 2025-08-06
MCNEAL GLENDA G
Officer
$15.47M
@ $309.50 · 2025-07-29
MARRS ANNA
Officer
$1.71M
@ $310.77 · 2025-07-29
MARQUEZ RAFAEL
Officer
$3.56M
@ $296.93 · 2025-05-20
GROSFIELD HOWARD M
Officer
$2.60M
@ $275.50 · 2025-05-06
MCNEAL GLENDA G
Officer
$799,009
@ $264.66 · 2025-04-29
MARRS ANNA
President
$6.32M
@ $287.88 · 2025-03-04
LIEBERMAN QUINN JESSICA
Officer
$897,590
@ $296.43 · 2025-02-26
MCNEAL GLENDA G
Officer
$2.29M
@ $309.96 · 2025-02-11
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$16.24M
@ $319.45 · 2025-02-06
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$3.53M
@ $317.01 · 2025-02-05
RADHAKRISHNAN RAVIKUMAR S
Chief Technology Officer
$3.03M
@ $319.17 · 2025-02-05
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$7.25M
@ $318.69 · 2025-02-05
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$4.77M
@ $313.94 · 2025-01-28
LE CAILLEC CHRISTOPHE
Chief Financial Officer
$1.82M
@ $303.48 · 2024-11-27
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$48.90M
@ $286.57 · 2024-11-07
HERENA MONIQUE
Officer
$374,010
@ $287.70 · 2024-11-07
BUCKMINSTER DOUGLAS E
Officer
$3.55M
@ $270.98 · 2024-10-29
WILLIAMS ANRE D.
Officer
$21.05M
@ $270.26 · 2024-10-22
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$666,213
@ $240.68 · 2024-05-22
SKYLER JENNIFER
Officer
$3.58M
@ $241.73 · 2024-05-10
LIEBERMAN QUINN JESSICA
Officer
$729,770
@ $232.41 · 2024-05-06
MARRS ANNA
Officer
$829,501
@ $230.93 · 2024-05-03
BUCKMINSTER DOUGLAS E
Officer
$27.27M
@ $232.44 · 2024-05-02
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$9.28M
@ $238.63 · 2024-04-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
PGR
6
Sells (3M)
37
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $50.82M
BAILO KAREN
Officer
$745,604
@ $212.00 · 2026-03-05
JOYCE CARL G.
Officer
$29,892
@ $212.00 · 2026-03-05
PUMAREJO MARIBEL
Officer
$150,138
@ $203.44 · 2026-02-24
BAUER JONATHAN S
Chief Investment Officer
$460,111
@ $203.05 · 2026-02-23
QUIGG ANDREW J
Officer
$336,973
@ $204.35 · 2026-01-21
BAUER JONATHAN S
Chief Investment Officer
$634,507
@ $204.35 · 2026-01-21
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$302,131
@ $224.80 · 2025-12-19
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$1.14M
@ $228.48 · 2025-11-28
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$307,050
@ $228.29 · 2025-11-21
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$295,900
@ $220.00 · 2025-11-11
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$325,624
@ $242.10 · 2025-09-19
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
Officer
$536,978
@ $242.10 · 2025-09-19
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.56M
@ $242.22 · 2025-09-19
GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
$7.54M
@ $246.06 · 2025-09-02
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$337,299
@ $250.78 · 2025-08-22
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
Officer
$556,230
@ $250.78 · 2025-08-22
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.56M
@ $249.96 · 2025-08-22
NIEDERST LORI A
Officer
$2.02M
@ $250.18 · 2025-08-14
QUIGG ANDREW J
Officer
$795,325
@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28
BAUER JONATHAN S
Chief Investment Officer
$595,933
@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28
BAILO KAREN
Officer
$2.22M
@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
President
$552,814
@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$4.15M
@ $249.24 · 2025-07-28
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.51M
@ $242.16 · 2025-07-28
GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
$7.42M
@ $242.12 · 2025-07-28
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$313,633
@ $247.54 · 2025-07-18
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.64M
@ $263.79 · 2025-06-30
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$329,901
@ $260.38 · 2025-06-20
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
Officer
$1.04M
@ $260.38 · 2025-06-20
BURGDOERFER STUART B
Director
$958,643
@ $260.43 · 2025-06-20
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.75M
@ $275.37 · 2025-05-28
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$351,985
@ $277.81 · 2025-05-23
VAN DYKE KAHINA
Director
$691,398
@ $277.67 · 2025-05-22
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.69M
@ $268.59 · 2025-04-28
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.76M
@ $275.94 · 2025-03-28
JOHNSON DEVIN C
Director
$110,016
@ $275.04 · 2025-03-25
JOYCE CARL G.
Officer
$99,420
@ $276.17 · 2025-03-21
BAUER JONATHAN S
Chief Investment Officer
$479,391
@ $282.66 · 2025-03-17
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$435,862
@ $282.66 · 2025-03-17
BAUER JONATHAN S
Chief Investment Officer
$344,787
@ $281.00 · 2025-03-06
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.31M
@ $279.70 · 2025-03-06
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.80M
@ $279.94 · 2025-02-28
NIEDERST LORI A
Officer
$952,416
@ $247.06 · 2025-01-30
KELLY JEFFREY D
Director
$2.50M
@ $250.00 · 2025-01-29
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.47M
@ $246.69 · 2025-01-28
QUIGG ANDREW J
Officer
$234,045
@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22
MARSHALL MARIANN WOJTKUN
Officer
$142,325
@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22
BAILO KAREN
Officer
$515,775
@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
Officer
$553,485
@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22
GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
$2.68M
@ $243.29 · 2025-01-22
QUIGG ANDREW J
Officer
$164,870
@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03
MARSHALL MARIANN WOJTKUN
Officer
$46,241
@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03
BAILO KAREN
Officer
$348,140
@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
President
$402,612
@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03
GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
$2.19M
@ $242.10 · 2025-01-03
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.39M
@ $238.66 · 2024-12-30
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$2.68M
@ $268.09 · 2024-11-29
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$748,678
@ $251.15 · 2024-10-21
VAN DYKE KAHINA
Director
$549,970
@ $252.28 · 2024-09-27
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$775,320
@ $260.00 · 2024-09-23
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.96M
@ $255.21 · 2024-09-20
GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
$10.94M
@ $252.20 · 2024-09-03
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$1.44M
@ $235.19 · 2024-08-19
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.83M
@ $237.20 · 2024-08-16
MURPHY JOHN JOSEPH
Officer
$2.26M
@ $237.50 · 2024-08-15
QUIGG ANDREW J
Officer
$850,690
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
BAUER JONATHAN S
Chief Investment Officer
$527,963
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
BAILO KAREN
Officer
$1.69M
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
BROZ STEVEN
Chief Technology Officer
$652,730
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
NIEDERST LORI A
Officer
$2.03M
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
CALLAHAN PATRICK KEVIN
Officer
$1.70M
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
SAUERLAND JOHN PETER
Chief Financial Officer
$4.86M
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA
Chief Executive Officer
$9.28M
@ $214.01 · 2024-07-22
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →AXP
😐Neutral(42/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
PGR
😨Fear(34/100)
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →AXP
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (42)
PGR
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (34)