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Compare Stocks › ADBE vs UPS

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) vs United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

ADBE
Adobe Inc.
$253.96
VS
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
$96.31

Rewards

ADBE
  • ★Adobe Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 89.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Adobe Inc. scores 100/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
UPS
  • ★United Parcel Service, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★United Parcel Service, Inc. scores 72/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

ADBE
    UPS
    • ⚠Gross margin of 22.4% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
    • ⚠FCF yield of 5.7% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
    • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 20.1% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    ADBE
    UPS
    Valuation
    $9.32B
    Free Cash Flow
    $4.68B
    9.08%
    FCF Yield
    5.72%
    14.81
    Trailing P/E
    15.56
    9.61
    Forward P/E
    12.15
    Quality & Moat
    41.36%
    ROIC
    9.88%
    62.36%
    ROE
    35.29%
    89.40%
    Gross Margin
    22.44%
    1.33
    PEG Ratio
    1.63
    Balance Sheet Safety
    0.58
    Debt / Equity
    1.82
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    -0.02
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.92
    N/A
    Dividend Yield
    6.10%
    ADBE: 9Ties: 2UPS: 0
    ADBEUPS

    Historical Fundamentals

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    ADBE

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    UPS

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    ADBE
    $-0.60
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $18.12B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-10.93B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    UPS
    $-34.39
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $1.89B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-65.09B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    ADBE
    49.4% Margin of Safety
    Price is 49.4% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $253.96
    Fair Value: $501.89
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    UPS
    34.7% Margin of Safety
    Price is 34.7% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $96.31
    Fair Value: $147.46
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    ADBE

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $254?

    +3.2%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies -0.5%

    The market implies +3.2% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

    Standard FCF implies a more demanding -0.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

    UPS

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $96?

    +6.9%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +9.2%

    The market implies +6.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    Economic Moat Score

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    ADBE
    100/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    UPS
    72/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    ADBE
    -2.85
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    UPS
    -2.57
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    ADBE
    Insiders 0.3%Institutions 87.7%Retail & Other 12.0%
    No. of Institutional Holders3,316
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    UPS
    Insiders 0.0%Institutions 69.8%Retail & Other 30.2%
    No. of Institutional Holders2,641
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    ADBE
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    DURN DANIEL J
    Chief Financial Officer
    $507,758
    @ $390.58 · 2025-03-20
    RICKS DAVID A
    Director
    $998,946
    @ $443.98 · 2025-01-28
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    UPS
    0
    Buys (3M)
    3
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $1.48M
    SHI CHRISTIANA SMITH
    Director
    $44,084
    @ $88.17 · 2025-08-22
    TOME CAROL B.
    Chief Executive Officer
    $1.00M
    @ $85.67 · 2025-08-01
    JOHNSON WILLIAM R
    Director
    $432,477
    @ $86.50 · 2025-07-31
    JOHNSON WILLIAM R
    Director
    $643,034
    @ $128.61 · 2024-07-25
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    ADBE
    2
    Sells (3M)
    4
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $1.05M
    FORUSZ JILLIAN
    Officer
    $185,915
    @ $246.25 · 2026-04-30
    DURN DANIEL J
    Chief Financial Officer
    $331,355
    @ $248.02 · 2026-04-20
    DURN DANIEL J
    Chief Financial Officer
    $485,323
    @ $294.85 · 2026-01-27
    FORUSZ JILLIAN
    Officer
    $50,344
    @ $337.88 · 2025-10-31
    FORUSZ JILLIAN
    Officer
    $175,828
    @ $380.58 · 2025-05-02
    FORUSZ JILLIAN
    Officer
    $145,567
    @ $435.83 · 2025-01-28
    BELSKY SCOTT K
    Officer
    $2.05M
    @ $431.61 · 2025-01-27
    BANSE AMY L
    Director
    $333,300
    @ $550.00 · 2024-12-06
    FORUSZ JILLIAN
    Officer
    $327,987
    @ $485.19 · 2024-10-29
    BELSKY SCOTT K
    Officer
    $232,525
    @ $483.42 · 2024-10-25
    BELSKY SCOTT K
    Officer
    $1.14M
    @ $511.48 · 2024-10-16
    DURN DANIEL J
    Chief Financial Officer
    $3.35M
    @ $515.44 · 2024-09-17
    GARFIELD MARK S.
    Officer
    $52,089
    @ $537.00 · 2024-07-25
    BELSKY SCOTT K
    Officer
    $258,297
    @ $537.00 · 2024-07-25
    GARFIELD MARK S.
    Officer
    $85,255
    @ $564.60 · 2024-07-16
    BELSKY SCOTT K
    Officer
    $1.25M
    @ $561.60 · 2024-07-16
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    UPS
    0
    Sells (3M)
    1
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $2.66M
    BROTHERS NORMAN MICHAEL JR.
    Officer
    $2.66M
    @ $106.15 · 2026-01-28
    BROTHERS NORMAN MICHAEL JR.
    Officer
    $1.02M
    @ $138.57 · 2024-11-25
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    ADBE
    FearGreed
    😨Fear(38/100)

    "Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    UPS
    FearGreed
    😨Fear(39/100)

    "Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    ADBE
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (38)
    UPS
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (39)
    View ADBE Full AnalysisView UPS Full Analysis
    ADBE vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy? | SafetyMargin.io