Apple Inc. (AAPL) vs United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, AAPL is overvalued at $298, with a DCF intrinsic value of $182 and a margin of safety of -64%. UPS is undervalued at $105, with an intrinsic value of $159 and a margin of safety of 34%. Of the two, UPS has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Apple Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Apple Inc. scores 96/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★United Parcel Service, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★United Parcel Service, Inc. scores 72/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
Risks
- ⚠FCF yield of 2.3% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.42 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠6 insider sales totaling $111.7M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠Gross margin of 22.4% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠FCF yield of 5.2% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 20.1% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $298?
The market implies +16.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +18.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $105?
The market implies +7.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +10.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.
Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: AAPL vs UPS
Is Apple Inc. or United Parcel Service, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, UPS trades at a 34.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $159 vs. price $105), compared to AAPL's -63.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $182 vs. $298).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Apple Inc. or United Parcel Service, Inc.?▼
AAPL scores 96/100 (Wide moat), while UPS scores 72/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is United Parcel Service, Inc. in financial distress?▼
UPS's Altman Z-Score of 2.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. AAPL scores 10.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Apple Inc. or United Parcel Service, Inc.?▼
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) generates a 5.2% free cash flow yield, compared to Apple Inc.'s 2.3%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Apple Inc. or United Parcel Service, Inc.?▼
AAPL earns 60.2% ROIC versus UPS's 9.9%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Apple Inc.'s or United Parcel Service, Inc.'s?▼
AAPL's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to UPS's 34/100 (Unsafe). AAPL has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.